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Phillies expected to send Domonic Brown to minors to make room for Hunter Pence

Jul 30, 2011, 9:12 AM EDT

Pittsburgh Pirates v Philadelphia Phillies Getty Images

I hope you’re happy, Phillies fans.

While the Phillies were able to acquire All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence from the Astros last night, we’ll still have to be subjected to Raul Ibanez in left field on a regular basis. According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Phillies plan to send Domonic Brown down to the minors so that he can play everyday, presumably until the rosters expand in September.

The Phillies will likely need to make two roster moves today, with Pence coming over from the Astros expected Placido Polanco to return from the disabled list. On the positive side of things, at least the Phillies didn’t cave completely and give up Brown as part of the Pence trade. They paid a heavy price to get a deal done with the Astros, but including Brown would have been utter madness.

Brown, 23, is batting .246/.335/.393 with five home runs, 19 RBI and three stolen bases over 204 plate appearances this season. The rookie outfielder is hitting .296 (21-for-71) with a .398 on-base percentage this month.

  1. kingjoe1 - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:24 AM

    He needs to find his swing again, so this is a good move. Have to check out some Iron Pigs games.
    Ibanez, Victorino and Pence makes for a very nice outfield.

  2. schmedley69 - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:34 AM

    Brown is a complete butcher in the field and needs more time in the minors. Ibanez, although on the downside, is still a better player than Brown at this stage. If you are trying to win a World Series, you can’t have Dom Brown in right taking bad angles on balls, running past balls or diving for balls which he should be backing up on. That kind of stuff doesn’t show up in the stats, so the Keith Law’s of the world are throwing up a big stink about the Phils choosing Ibanez over Brown, but those of us who actually watch every game know the real score. Dom Brown is not ready. I’m glad that Keith Law is not our GM.

    • paperlions - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:17 AM

      Better at what?

      He isn’t a better hitter, there is no metric by which Ibanez even approaches what Brown has done, and Brown has been improving through the season. You don’t learn to hit ML pitching in the minors, and you can learn to play the field in the majors just as well as in the minors….especially when his defense is a little better than Ibanez….they both have horrible range and medicare/bad arms, but Ibanez is worse. To top it off, Brown is a better base runner.

      This move is 100% because Ibanez is being paid way to much and they don’t want to feel like they are getting nothing in return for those millions….well, by playing him they are getting less than nothing because he is a below replacement level player. Based on baseball performance, Ibanez should be cut.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:23 AM

        You are over stating Brown’s hitting compared to Ibanez. On the season Brown has a .723 OPS compared to Ibanez’s .709. The last month, Ibanez has been significantly better than Brown hitting wise.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:23 AM

        .728 not .723….my apologies.

      • hittfamily - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:29 AM

        I don’t really understand the rules on sending veterans to the minors. Could a competitor claim him if they do send Ibanez down? Cincy is going to play a rookie 1st baseman in left, and the Cards are in big trouble if they lose another outfielder. The Braves have 2 outfielders on the DL. If Ibanaez was cut, or DFA, they might be improving a team they are likely to meet in the playoffs.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:32 AM

        paperlions,
        Ibanez should be cut? What???? Are you joking. Ibanez is batting .245, but also has 14hr, 55 rbi’s, 20 doubles and plays a serviceable left field.

        He’s better than most left fielders all-around.

      • paperlions - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:00 AM

        Ibanez ranks dead last among LF in defense this year. His UZR/150 is more than twice as bad and the 2nd worst LF (-31.4 to -15.4)….no matter what you think of defensive metrics, there is just no way to ignore the fact that he gets to so few balls hit to LF. He’s horrible.

        The most important thing a hitter can do is not make outs (i.e. get on base). Ibanez’s OBP (.290) is second worst among all LF this season (you can thank the horrible Corey patterson for keeping him out of last of that category).

        His is last in WAR among all LF.

        Ibanez is a below replacement level player (far below average) playing at the offensive position (easiest defensive position). He is really bad. Really, really bad.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:10 AM

        paperlions,

        With all due respect, your sabermetrics mean nothing to me, from a fan’s perspective.
        I watch enough baseball to know what stats are meaningful and which ones aren’t. I watch games with my eyes and can make determination that stats cannot provide. Raul is a streaky hitter and his stats reflect that. I know the guy is serviceable in left field and has won some games for the Phillies with big hits.

        I will not even debate stats with you because you will pull up some saber stat that I have no interest in, to be honest with you. We fundamentally will always disagree because of this.

      • schmedley69 - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

        You lost me at “metric.” You are obviously a pure stat-head type and don’t watch the games. Anyone who watches the Phillies on a regular basis knows that Dom Brown’s defense is a huge liability right now. The happiest people about Dom Brown going down: Phillies pitchers. I’m sure that they cringed every time the ball was hit his way.

      • cktai - Jul 30, 2011 at 12:13 PM

        I watch all Phillies games, with my own eyes mind, and what I see is that Ibanez hardly ever reaches the base and regularly fails to catch relatively easy balls. Brown does get on base and scores more runs, at a small loss of power, but is just as bad in the field.

      • dbick - Jul 30, 2011 at 1:09 PM

        Paperlions speaking the truth! thank you! I watch all phillies games, and also embrace Saber stats. And my eyes and stats both confirm the same thing, Ibanez is awful and Brown is better.

      • dbick - Jul 30, 2011 at 1:17 PM

        Halladaysbiceps,

        Your eyes are lying to you, he is anything but serviceable in left field. I guess you are feeling this way because of a couple of absurd grabs that he has made in the last few years that should’ve been just average fly balls to a reasonable outfielder. He is a goddamn awful player at this point in his career. His OBP IS 2 FUCKING 90 ARE YOU SERIOUS? And that’s not even one of the sabermetric stats that you hate so much for whatever reason. If you think he is better than most lf’s around, you are kidding yourself. Take off the phillies blinders.

        Also why do you hate saber stats? If they can help determine a players value why not look at them?

      • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 30, 2011 at 1:43 PM

        Let me preface this by saying I hate most sabre stats. Only because they are good at predicting FUTURE value, but really don’t always tell the story of the present player. For example, when I get some sabre guy telling me how shitty Worley is pitching, even though his ERA is 2 and his ERA+ 188, I just want to punch someone in the face when I read about his BABIP, his xFIP, and other stats that may give you insight into his FUTURE, but not into exactly how well he has been pitching. But whatever….to each his/her own.

        That being said, I agree that my friend bicep may have gone a little far with saying that Ibanez is one of the best LF’s around. I actually read what you wrote and had to page back up to confirm that he actually said that. Um, no. He’s really not even close…not this year.

        He’s probably in the bottom 3 worst fielding LFs in baseball. As far as hitting goes, his OPS+ is 94, which is pretty pathetic. As was so eloquently stated above, his OBP is .291. That’s about as bad as it gets. I don’t really like WAR, but his is -0.3. That really sucks. No other way to put it. No amount of disliking stats is going to make a minus WAR mean anything other than…he sucks.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 2:12 PM

        Hey Chris,

        Actually, what I said was that Ibanez is “better than most left fielders all-around”. All I’m saying is that for what Ibanez provides for the lineup (he hits usually 6th, provides some pop, can drive in some key runs ocasionally), he’s not all bad considering most of the left fielders in the league. Left field is not a position in these days that is laden with star-type talent. His glove is serviceable. We know his range isn’t good anymore. But, he can make the routine play in the field.

        We know he is not a high on base percentage guy, especially how little he draws walk.

        I’m no huge Ibanez defender. I will critisice the guy, and you probably have seen me rant about him in the past. You can do worse than him, though.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 30, 2011 at 2:28 PM

        Who would you do worse with? I am not sure there is a single left fielder that you would do worse than Ibanez with. I’ve looked. The only fielder who is worse than Ibanez is probably Logan Morrison who is a superior hitter than Ibanez and over a decade younger.

      • tomemos - Jul 30, 2011 at 2:37 PM

        “With all due respect, your sabermetrics mean nothing to me, from a fan’s perspective.”

        Okay. Do you agree that it’s better to get on base than to not? Like, a lot better? Do you agree that getting on base less than three times in ten is miserable? Do you agree that’s what Ibanez has done?

        We don’t have to go to WAR here (pun intended). OBP is a perfectly mainstream stat.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 2:48 PM

        Chris and tomemos,

        I’m not debating his stats. There are what they are and are as clear as day. All I am saying is that he provides somewhat of a home run threat that this lineup needs right now. 14 hr from a guy who’s 39 years old isn’t too shabby. A guy that was hitting probably .170 over the first month of the season raising his average to the current .245 has to mean something.

        This is the last year of his contract. He will not be here next year. I’m not sure why everyone is over this guy’s case? He is what he is? Don’t you agree at least with that?

      • seeingwhatsticks - Jul 30, 2011 at 5:23 PM

        Doesn’t it stand to reason that at 23 a guy should know how to play the OF? What would lead anyone to believe that another couple of months in the minors would make him better at a position he’s played all his life?

    • tomemos - Jul 30, 2011 at 3:02 PM

      “I’m not debating his stats. There are what they are and are as clear as day.”

      Apparently not, because we disagree on what they mean. Anyway, it seems like you *are* debating the stats, because then you say:

      “All I am saying is that he provides somewhat of a home run threat that this lineup needs right now. 14 hr from a guy who’s 39 years old isn’t too shabby. A guy that was hitting probably .170 over the first month of the season raising his average to the current .245 has to mean something.”

      Well, you’re changing the basis for comparison. Now we’re not comparing Ibanez to most LF, or even to Brown–we’re comparing him to other players who are 39. I’m sure his numbers aren’t bad for a 39-year-old, but the Phillies have another option.

      You mention Ibanez’s average; Brown has the same average. He also has more walks than Ibanez, even though Ibanez has played in almost twice as many games. His power numbers are in roughly line with having played in fewer games, as well. I don’t see by what basis Ibanez is better.

      You asked why I even care–it’s a good question. I care because the situation is familiar to me: as a Giants fan, it drives me crazy that Huff keeps getting starts over Belt, even though Huff seems done and Belt has looked great. So while it’s in my interest for your team to start Ibanez and thus make itself worse, I sympathize with those who are frustrated with the decision.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 3:17 PM

        Tomemos,

        I’ve been following baseball for 30 years. I know what on base percentage is. Don’t try to talk down to me like I’m a simpleton.

        I’l let you in on a little secret. Baseball managers don’t always look at every single damn stat when they decide who plays and who doesn’t. The reason that Ibanez is playing everyday is simple. He provides more power and experience compared to the other players that are in the Phillies lineup that play that same position. Sometime you go with your gut. That’s what Charlie does when he puts Ibanez in the lineup.

        Same thing can probably be said for Bochy playing Huff over Belt. He is probably going by his gut for the same reasons.

        If you want to continue to be a contrarian to everything I write, so be it. What can I tell you? We agree to disagree.

      • tomemos - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:13 PM

        “I’ve been following baseball for 30 years. I know what on base percentage is. Don’t try to talk down to me like I’m a simpleton.”

        Where did I do that? If you show me I’ll apologize.

        “The reason that Ibanez is playing everyday is simple. He provides more power and experience compared to the other players that are in the Phillies lineup that play that same position.”

        I know what power is and why it’s good; I just don’t see where Ibanez clearly has more of it. I don’t know what experience means to a lineup–what does Ibanez provide with his experience that he wouldn’t provide from the bench just as well? If a vet has experience, why doesn’t a rookie have enthusiasm, energy, etc.? It seems like it always goes the other way.

        “If you want to continue to be a contrarian to everything I write, so be it. What can I tell you? We agree to disagree.”

        I don’t agree to disagree, and I don’t agree that I’m being contrarian (contradictory as that may sound). I think I’m providing reasons in the hope of coming to an understanding. If I’m failing to do that, show me where and I’ll try to do better.

  3. chc4 - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    Is it just me or is Pence not nearly as good as everyone is making him out to be? Nice player but nothing special. Don’t see how he tips the scales in favor of Philly anymore than they already are.

    • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:47 AM

      Pence is over rated, that cannot be denied. The Phillies needed a right handed somebody that isn’t a butcher in right field. Right field in October at CBP can be a tricky….see Jay Bruce.

  4. drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:45 AM

    Listen, for all those saying put Brown in left field and bench Ibanez….watch more Phillies games. Brown is a terrible fielder, terrible. Worse than Ibanez. He has played in right field most of his career and is still terrible at it. I can not even fathom the disaster that would happen blindly throwing Brown in left field. Furthermore, Ibanez has actually been pretty solid with the glove recently and has been swinging the bat better. Sure he is streaky and inconsistent, but he is better than Brown. People can throw out all the peripherals they want, Ibanez is the better player right now and more suited to the needs of the team.

    • paperlions - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:20 AM

      The problem with this approach is that you simply can’t measure range by watching, Ibanez’s range is all kinds of horrible….Brown’s is only bad. Brown may look bad on plays he gets to, but Ibanez doesn’t even get close enough to those balls to look bad.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:26 AM

        Yes, Ibanez’s range…particularly coming forward is bad. I will not dispute that. Brown’s range is bad coming forward as well because he takes poor angles and doesn’t read the slice of the ball. Difference is Brown gets close enough to awkwardly dive and let the ball get by him for extra bases, whereas Ibanez at least keeps the ball in front of him.

      • spudchukar - Jul 30, 2011 at 12:12 PM

        PL, UZR still sucks. For one thing it doesn’t include positioning, it has no way to measure jumps, and quick first steps. It is like having a race between two players, with different starting points, and different starting guns.

      • mikedi33 - Jul 30, 2011 at 12:46 PM

        Victorino has so much range he actually compensates for Ibanez’s lack of range. right now Ibanez is atleast adequate while Brown has definitely been a butcher.

      • tomemos - Jul 30, 2011 at 2:38 PM

        “UZR still sucks. For one thing it doesn’t include positioning, it has no way to measure jumps, and quick first steps.”

        Well, of course it does. If a player positions himself better, he’ll get to more balls. If he gets a good jump, he’ll get to more balls. Why shouldn’t a player be rewarded for these things? (Whereas the Error stat only penalizes players who get to the ball but don’t make the play.)

      • spudchukar - Jul 30, 2011 at 3:16 PM

        Never did I contend that “error stats” were a good indication of defensive ability. In fact I have always argued otherwise. But UZRs are so inconsistent you might as well call them “error stats” too. Until a format is devised that records every player’s positioning and then their response to a batted ball, and that batted ball is observed for its height, velocity, and movement UZRs will continue to make ridiculous claims.

  5. Chris Fiorentino - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:48 AM

    Brown needs another year of seasoning. This is an all around great move for the Phillies. Next year, Brown can stay down and work on his defense and still come up a year later at 25. He is too young right now but he still played real well for a 23 year old.

    • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:56 AM

      Agreed….but I don’t see him in AAA next year. I see a Mayberry/Brown combo next season.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Jul 30, 2011 at 1:02 PM

        I’d love to see them get another 1 year stopgap to platoon in LF with Mayberry, Jr., leave the Domo-nator in AAA for an entire year, and bring him up in 2013 to Domo-nate. He is so raw, he definitely could use a full year in the minors to refine his skills.

  6. gershonpsu - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:50 AM

    Dom Brown is another left-handed bat and a very unsure right fielder. Glad the Phillies were able to hold on to him, and Mayberry, and Worley for the future while improving the team for this season.

  7. dasher521 - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    With Howard and a long term contract, Singleton wasn’t going to play in Philadelphia. Ibanez is in the final year of a contract paying him about $12 million this year. Francisco was given every opportunity to be the guy to replace worth, but he never stepped up to the plate. Everyone wanted Domonic Brown to be the sensation that everyone has predicted. Unfortunately, Brown isn’t ready, offensively or defensively, and needs more seasoning. Ibanez, Victorino and Pence is the right outfield for this year. Brown, Victorino and Pence is the right outfield for next year.

  8. dbick - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:59 AM

    Ugh, everytime I see these people saying Ibanez should play over Brown I can’t help but let out a depressing sigh. They like to cite Browns defensive shortcomings, which he has, but they like to ignore that Raul is a terrible, terrible outfielder. He’s made a few ridiculous catches this year that shouldn’t have been ridiculous at all because a normal outfielder could’ve gotten to them like a competent baseball player. The only thing Raul has over brown is blind loyalty from his manager and its fun to yell “UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUL” when he occasionally does something good. Terrible decision, at the very worst Brown is Ibanez’s equal in every aspect of the game.

    • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:08 AM

      Nah man, you are wrong about Ibanez compared to Brown in the field. Defensive metrics back me up on this as well. I’m not the biggest fan of defensive metrics but they do show a general trend. Essentially, Ibanez’s and Brown’s defense has cost the Phillies a “half game” over the season but Ibanez has played in twice as many games….suggesting that Brown’s defense is significantly worse than Ibanez’s. OPS over last month: Brown .770, Ibanez .860 while having 20 more total bases in similar plate appearances.

      • paperlions - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:25 AM

        Ibanez’s defense has fallen off a cliff this year, before it was only bad, now it is unplayable. Yeah, Brown is horrible, but it has been an entire win better than Ibanez….and Brown’s bat is better and he’s a better runner. Really, the “Raaauuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul” thing is about all that Ibanuez has got.

        None of this matters for the regular season, the Phillies are going to the playoffs and will likely walk off with their division, but sending Brown down does nothing for his development…there isn’t a special “learn how to field” league and he won’t get to see ML pitching and learn how to adjust to the best pitchers in the world.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:28 AM

        Not a confrontational comment: what reference are you using that suggests Ibanez’s defense has fallen of a cliff this season? The one I am using suggests that he has meant a -0.5 dWAR this season…same as Brown but in more games.

      • paperlions - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:03 AM

        No problem, to me, asking for sources/data isn’t being confrontation…and is a good question.

        UZR/150. Ibanez has been slighly negative most years since 2006 (actually a little positive in 2009). This year it dropped from -7.9 to -31.4.

      • spudchukar - Jul 30, 2011 at 12:20 PM

        PL, here is another indication that UZR stats can be grossly misleading. So Ibanez had below average range for 3 years, suddenly in 2009 he found lightning in a bottle, surged into the positive range, and then woke up in 2010, with the same malady that plagued him in the prior three years. Quoting UZR stats are harmful to sabermetrics, which have done so much to redefine hitting measurements, and can be helpful for pitcher evaluation. As long as UZR renders illogical numbers like Ibanez, Jeter, etc., the human eye while fogged at times by blindness, is still a superior measuring tool. And yes, range can be detected by simply watching closely.

      • paperlions - Jul 30, 2011 at 2:10 PM

        I know that D metrics still require refining….Theriot has -1.1 dWAR this year….do you really think he’s been worth only 1 win less than a replacement defensive SS? He has been 12 kinds of horrible this year.

        Looking at dWAR numbers makes me suspect that its variance is too small compared to the real variance in defensive abilities of players. Either defense just isn’t that important (which is what dWAR generally suggests) and we shouldn’t worry about it that much, or dWAR undervalues defensive contributions.

      • spudchukar - Jul 30, 2011 at 3:19 PM

        The Cards management may well be in your corner. They seemed to have decided that defense is not necessary. Perhaps the recent moves indicate otherwise.

      • spudchukar - Jul 30, 2011 at 3:23 PM

        PL, 12 kinds of horrible may be an understatement, but in his case as in most, no statistics are needed to come to that assessment. Correct you are, challenging his dWAR. I can recall at least half a dozen instances where his D has cost us a contest, even though I try desperately to forget.

    • FC - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:08 AM

      All true but Ibanez has more power right now. Brown with his broken Hamate is 6 months away from regaining a full power stroke. This move was about the post-season not the regular season. He should play winter ball and start learning to play LF, he’s going to be Ibanez’s replacement. Let’s face it’s his defense that’s sending him down and he’s earning the minimum. You’re paying Ibanez 12MM! What you gonna do? DFA him?

  9. phillyphan975 - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:00 AM

    Brown is about 3 years away from being a great player. He will be Ibanez’s replacement in left. Pence may be slightly overrated, I agree, however as a “supporting cast” member and not the guy, I feel he will excel and become a better player (see Jayson Werth –> not comparing the two, but the concept in how they were used to protect Howard)….

    I think this move benefits both teams, which is very unorthodox of Wade dealing with the Phillies… He should have just gave us Pence in exchange for four 300 level tickets to dollar dog night…

  10. halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:38 AM

    Why has this thread turned into a comparison between Dom Brown and Raul Ibanez? I don’t get it.

    1: Dom Brown has a difficult enough time learning to play right field. Granted, right field is a more difficult position than left field, but they are not going to confuse Brown more by moving him to left field to replace Ibanez. That’s insane.

    2: Raul Ibanez has turned a horrific start of the season into a decent season. .245, 14hr, 55rbi’s, 20 doubles. You can do a lot worse.

    • FC - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:49 AM

      I’m not sure where it came from. But for next season It’s reasonable move. If Brown has a lot of trouble in RF put him in LF. I gather LF is easier to defend than RF in CBP?

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:55 AM

        It seems that way particularly at night. I’ve heard players mention stuff about the glare from the lights or something like that. I fully expect Brown to be in left field next season. On a different note, what line-up do you see Charlie using now. I see something like this:
        Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Pence, Victorino, Ibanez, Ruiz…..though an argument could be made for putting Victorino in the 2 spot and dropping Polanco to 7th.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:56 AM

        Maybe next season Brown is in left field. It’s too early to tell. I’m not even looking that far ahead.

        As far as left field being easier. It’s an easier position in any ballpark. More balls are hit to the right side than left. Always has been that way. More guys rip balls down the right field line and in the right field power gap between right and center field. Your right fielder also has to have a much stronger and accurate arm to make plays at 2nd and 3rd.

        Right field is a much more important defense position than left field.

      • FC - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

        Yes RF in general is more difficult, I was just wondering if it was especially tough in CBP. Line-up, sounds right, though I’m sure CM will tinker with it, there are lots of possibilities. Shane in the 2-spot, Polanco in the 7-spot. Shane should be hitting no lower than 6th though. I can see CM putting Howard, Victorino, Pence together in that order.

  11. halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:59 AM

    “Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Pence, Victorino, Ibanez, Ruiz”

    Correct. This is a logical lineup. However, we know Charlie never goes with a static lineup. He will mix and match and tinker like he always does.

    He could be the manager of the 27′ Yankees and never have the same lineup every single night.

    • dcbassguy - Jul 30, 2011 at 2:09 PM

      I disagree…. When the team is healthy, and the guys are doing their jobs, the lineup stays set. When this team is really good (2008) and doing their respective jobs no one needs to be moved. When they stop scoring, Charlie will move guys to shake things up. He doesn’t do it just to “tinker”, the team needs to score runs, so he does what he has to.

  12. aclassyguyfromaclassytown - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:29 AM

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brown still get moved. The Phillies have been in talks with San Diego for Bell & Adams. If they can sign those 2 to long term deals, don’t be surprised to see him or Worley get shipped out.

    • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

      I think they are done making moves. They are sitting at the luxury tax threshhold. The Astros even had to kick in over 1 million for Pence’s salary so the Phils would not go over the luxury tax.

      If they obtain either Bell or Adams, they will go over the tax. They will not do this.

      I like the bullpen as is.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM

        Biceps,
        I said it in my post below, but the Astros sent 2 million over. It was originally though to be 1 million but they sent an additional million in order to not just keep them below the tax but to give them a bit of added flexibility.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:48 AM

        OK, Doctor. I saw that. Thanks for the correction.

        If they do make another move, I believe it will be minor. I think it’s foolish for anyone to think that Brown or Worley could still be traded, though. If the Phils did not give them up in Pence deal, they certaintly will not for additional bullpen help. It makes no sense.

    • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:39 AM

      My opinion, the Phillies won’t go in for Bell. I think they intend to save money in the bullpen next season and they would have to pay Bell a significant amount of money. Furthermore, the back end of the bullpen hasn’t been a problem this season and I really don’t see it being a problem. He is more likely to go to the Rangers or Cardinals. One of those teams will blink and get the deal done. Adams is a different story. The Astros sent 2 million to the Phillies to keep them under the tax and for room to sign a reliever if the opportunity arises. That would probably about covers Adams’ remaining salary. That being said, I don’t see RAJ trading Brown/Worley for a relief pitcher. The cost of replacing either of them for next season would be too great. At 500,000/season for a 4th starter, Worley provides tremendous value as does Brown at the same price. Some teams place some value into Mayberry Jr. so he could be a trade chip, though I think that would be a mistake. His versatility will be important down the stretch and in the playoffs.

      • FC - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:50 AM

        They might trade Adams for a AAA reliever. But it’s kind of hard to justify, he’s AE for 2012, beyond that no more control. I think I’d rather try out Aumont or De Fratus next year if there’s a gap in the BP. So when is Oz coming back? I’d like to see Carpenter sent down. Herndon at least has stretches of good outings. Carpenter seems to pitch fine one game and struggle the next….

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 12:02 PM

        Oswalt starts again for the Iron Pigs on Monday then should rejoin the Phillies to take Kendrick’s spot in the rotation the following Sunday in San Francisco. Yes, Carpenter is terrible. I think he has pitches something like 20 career innings and given up runs in 15 of them and an extra base hit in all but 3.

    • FC - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:39 AM

      I would be surprised to see Brown move, with the Pence trade they solve two issues: RH bat and next year’s outfield. If they trade Brown, then they leave a hole again in the outfield that has to be filled through FA. Why do that when you can send Brown down to AAA and start fielding LF in preparation for 2012? Also he might be added to the playoff roster if the Phillies decide to drop Ben Francisco.

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:42 AM

        I think Brown will be on the playoff roster. Ben Francisco has really been a disappointment and a generally terrible player. He would be practically useless in a playoff series. At least Brown would provide a left handed alternative to Ross Gload.

      • FC - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:52 AM

        Ross Gload… would it be unfair to say his our New Matt Stairs without the HRs?

      • drmonkeyarmy - Jul 30, 2011 at 11:57 AM

        It is not completely unfair. Unfortunately that hip injury has really sapped Gload’s power. Although he did almost put one out the other day.

      • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 12:02 PM

        I said this the other day. Gload kills their bench because when he hits a single, they have to always pinch run for the guy, so he takes away another bench player that can be used if need be later in the game.

        Gload is a great pinch hitter. But, with his hip injury, he is a detriment for their team. It’s a shame, because a healthy Gload can do so much more for their bench options.

      • dcbassguy - Jul 30, 2011 at 2:04 PM

        Francisco has been one of the best pinch hitters in baseball…… Do you not watch the games?

      • FC - Jul 30, 2011 at 4:37 PM

        I sure do, maybe that’s the problem: I distinctly remember Ben Francisco pinch hitting for Cliff Lee and then immediately hit into a DP.

  13. FC - Jul 30, 2011 at 1:55 PM

    Favorite stat to poo-poo: Run Diferential. It’s a nice tool for seasonal trends but tells you absolutely nothing about how two top teams match against each other. It’s about as good a predictor of post-season (or heck regular season) matchups as my thumb diferential!

  14. dcbassguy - Jul 30, 2011 at 2:03 PM

    Mayberry Jr should be the left fielder. Let Brown mature for awhile, and develop as a fielder. Even his hitting needs some work, and some solid coaching. There isn’t time for that on the major league level. Ilike the addition of pence, but I’m not sure he’s any better than Mayberry.

  15. genericcommenter - Jul 30, 2011 at 3:18 PM

    LOL at guys who say they are not “stat guys” but know the game from watching the game defending a hitter with a .290 OBP. What is it you get from “watching the game” that tells you a .290 OBP is even close to decent? You are right- you shouldn’t need stats for that. You should be able to see with your eyes that a guy with a .290 OBP is a below average hitter. You see ( from watching the game) he makes an out over 70% of the time. He strikes out 3 times as much as he walks, and his power is not impressive enough to make up for any of that.

    • halladaysbiceps - Jul 30, 2011 at 3:29 PM

      He’s a 6 hole hitter and is 39 years old. What else do you want from the guy? He doesn’t walk and is a free swinger. He’s not a top of the lineup guy.

      What I find unbelievable is that people are making such a fuss over Brown in favor of Ibanez. Brown can’t field and will be sent down to AAA. He’s not ready. What’s so hard to understand?

      • tomemos - Jul 30, 2011 at 9:22 PM

        What do you mean, what’s hard to understand? It’s hard to understand why you would send down Brown, thus delaying his development, when he might be better than Ibanez *right now.* It’s hard to understand on what basis Ibanez is supposed to be better–an extra home run every twenty games or so? What do *you* find hard to understand about that?

      • FC - Jul 30, 2011 at 10:20 PM

        My take is you’re already paying Ibanez $12 MM, he’s gone after this season, get as much value as you can now, same situation as Brad Lidge. Brown MAY or MAY NOT be better than Ibaez down the stretch and into the Post-season, but sometimes a power threat is better than a lighter threat. Besides Brown will be back in September, if Ibanez completely tanks at the end of the season you take Brown into the Post-season with you.

        In any case I think it’s unfair to ask Brown to immediately start fielding LF without getting some time in AAA to do it right.

  16. FC - Jul 31, 2011 at 5:07 PM

    … when he might be better than Ibanez *right now.* It’s hard to understand on what basis Ibanez is supposed to be better–an extra home run every twenty games or so? What do *you* find hard to understand about that?

    Try this: on the basis of 2 more HRs in one game and a game winning extra base hit. These Sabre guys… keep watching your stat-sheets, I’ll keep watching the game.

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