No, I understood you said that you believe an overhaul of the bullpen is important. Once again, I said I disagree with that. The rotation is struggling much more then the bullpen is, and unlike you I’ve already posted the stats that show this to be the case. There isn’t a reliable arm behind Romero or Morrow. If you want to argue Cecil that’s fine, but he’s more like a back end starter on a competitive team. Let’s face it, they didn’t end up being the 26th worst starting rotation (by ERA) by accident. I prefer FIP/XFIP over ERA but I’m short on time.

So yes, while the bullpen needs to be overhauled (something I already stated and agreed with), I do not believe it is as important as fixing the rotation.

Like I said before – the bullpen is struggling for 2 major reasons. The first is that Frasor & Rzep, the two best guys in the bullpen, are gone. Nobody else in the Jays pen was close to being that good, and it’s forced guys who should be pitching lesser roles in the 6/7 innings into the 8/9 innings where they’re bound to screw up. The second reason I’ll address in the next few paragraphs, which is specifically the rotation issues behind Morrow & Romero.

And actually, let’s not kid ourselves the rotation is a pretty big issue, because it makes the bullpen worse off. See, all those 5 inning starts by Reyes, Villanueva, etc have pretty much forced the bullpen to throw a ton of innings. Which means guys who shouldn’t be pitching in games when it’s on the line are forced into these situations. It also means the bullpen is drained, so that normally quality arms are too tired because they’re overworked.

The numbers back this up – the bullpen is 6th in innings pitched in the majors, and the rotation is 23rd in innings pitched.

So yeah, the SP is definitely the problem. If the non-Romero/Morrow pitchers went deeper into the games, the bullpen wouldn’t throw so many innings, and all the middle relievers who shouldn’t be put in high leverage situations could go back to mop up duty. It would also ensure that the few remaining arms capable of pitching in high leverage spots (Janssen) are rested.

The Jays need to find a quality SP more then they need a RP. That being said, they still need 2-3 solid BP arms. But there’s no question the rotation is what is holding this team back right now.

The fact that a middle of the pack bullpen is struggling to save games is an anomaly. It’s not something we should expect going forward. A crappy reliever can save 80% of games, you don’t need a “Veteran Experienced Gritty closer” who is paid 10M to do that. Most of those BS can be attributed to Rauch & Fransisco, two guys who, let’s face it, the Jays shouldn’t have had closing after May or June.

A closer isn’t IMMEDIATELY IMPORTANT as you suggest. A closer is one of the last pieces you look for, because they don’t have as much of an effect as we’re led to believe. I would rather have a dominant top 4 in the rotation than a guy who pitches 60 innings to get 3 outs against guys who usually aren’t the middle of the lineup with a 1-3 run lead.

The two blown saves in a single game is something a closer wouldn’t help with. A closer is not infallible – they’re still going to blow saves. If your gritty veteran experienced closer blew a save in the 9th, we still would have lost it in the 11th or 12th when Camp pitched.

The bigger issue with last nights game was that two of the best 3 relievers for the Jays are playing on other teams. Frasor & Rzep were very effective, and gave the Jays on average 2 relatively shut down innings. Their replacements aren’t capable of doing that. What that leaves the Jays with is one reliable arm in Janssen, and a bunch of guys who need to be used specifically against RH bats (Fransisco, Dotel) or lefties (Miller, Ledezma if he’s still up).

No, the Jays don’t need a closer. What they need are several reliable arms in the bullpen. Last night was an example of that. The Jays could have gotten their 1-2 shutdown innings from their “closer”, but they still would have eventually had to use Camp or Rauch.

So if Heath Bell’s best years aren’t behind him, why has his strikeout rated dropped significant (down from 10 and 11 the past few years to 6.9)? He can still be a useful arm in the bullpen, but guys don’t just drop multiple K’s per 9 without raising a red flag.

So to sum this up – yes, the Jays need bullpen help. But not just one guy. They need multiple reliable arms. For the rest of the season it’s going to be about Farrell showing off if he can really manage, as he’s going to need to put each RP in a situation that fits their skills.

This particular loss represented 2 blown saves IN THE SAME GAME. I don’t realistically expect every save converted but since the top 8 teams in the AL save at around 80%, I think, as a fan, I’d like to see my team do that too. I am boggled, that as an ostensible Jay’s fan, you feel different.

When you own the stat of 55 % of converted save opportunities (23-for-42), the worst save percentage in the American League, AND you play in the AL Beast, then you my friend NEED a closer, not a bat (as much). By even being in the position to blow that many saves indicates you have just enough offence. What you lack is pitching. Short of getting Harry Leroy Halladay III back (which is unrealistic), then a good solid closer is a must to have any chance of competing when your team scores just a hair over 3 runs/game. Man, with Heath Belll, a closer who’s best years are NOT behind him, on the market prior to the deadline, I am simply crushed that my … OUR team missed an opportunity.

No, the problem with this team is the ineffective starting pitching. The bullpen isn’t great, but a closer doesn’t magically add 8-9 wins. At best it’s one win. Especially when you consider that the league average # of blown saves is 13.

Not that blown stats is really what you should be looking at.

Just for fun:

Jays RP: 3.66 ERA
Jays SP: 4.50 ERA

So again, the bullpen isn’t really the issue. It’s the fact they gave too many starts to Villanueva, Reyes, and other re-treads while losing Cecil for the bizarre lack of stuff and Litsch to injuries.

So to recap – the bullpen isn’t great, but it’s not the biggest problem this team has. It’s the lack of any reliable SP behind Romero/Morrow. Even Cecil was pretty lousy today, with 4 K and 3 BB in 6 IP. He’s lucky he didn’t get lit up with the lack of control he showed.

I mean fuck, he’s got nothing to prove in the minors. He’s hit 274 and shown some power since his recall in July, so it’s not like he’s been god awful either. Yeah, he’s struggled lately, but guess what? He has to learn to adjust at the major league level. Can’t keep sending him down to the minors to fix every little problem.

And yes, Ari, Snider should be in LF with Thames DHing. Snider’s a pretty above average defender and Thames is best suited to DH.

I do find it amusing at all the Snider sucks crap, especially when you consider that the Jays recently picked up a former top prospect who was struggling for pennies on the dollar. He’s been around in the majors for a while, but he’s 23. Most guys his age are in AAA or just breaking in.

If you think blowing teams away is the answer I invite you to put your opinion out there on ALL the threads you comment on and stop nipping at my heels like I’ve done something to you. I can’t recall a single instance where you have gone to comment to agree with me. All you do is disagree and state your opinion as though you speak from Olympus. Once again I couldn’t disagree with you more and I do NOT agree to disagree either. I think you’re opinion is flat out wrong.

And expensive closers don’t usually work, since by the time someone hits free agency, their best years are behind them. Most of the top teams have closers they developed themselves.

Point is, Jays will be fine at closer. It’s a couple more bats and a starter they need.