Gene Mauch, when managing the Phillies, once moved his right-handed starter to 3rd base late in a close game, and brought in a lefty reliever (who may have been a regular starter) to face a very good left-handed hitter. The lefty got the out, came out of the game, starter went back to the mound, and a new 3rd baseman came into the game.

In a good bullpen, you have one player listed as the closer and one or two other guys that you use to bail you out of trouble spots or, in the absence of those, bridge the late inning gap to get to the closer. In many instances, these players have numbers similar to the closer and on a lot of other teams would be closing. So while Kiner’s point is certainly a valid one, the best bullpens are built to overcome waiting until the 9th inning to use your “best” reliever. I think that what the Brewers did adding K-Rod to their pen (while already having an establishing closer) illustrates this a little bit, but obviously there is lots of baseball left to be played. Going solely by the “Hold” stat… the two leaders on that team this season prior to K-Rod’s trade were LaTroy Hawkins (1.78 ERA) and Kameron Loe (4.05 ERA). Sliding K-Rod into Loe’s position in the pen represents a massive upgrade for the Brewers, and could possibly allow Hawkins to be used to bail the team out of any fires that crop up late in the game.

That said, it would be nice to see those “closers” in a high leverage situation in the 6th, 7th, or 8th, as opposed to picking up three outs with a three run lead in the 9th.

Don’t believe me? Check out this study by Dave Smith of Retrosheet. He researched late-inning leads over 73 seasons, from 1944 to 2003, and an additional 14 seasons prior to that span. What he found is that the winning percentage for teams who enter the ninth inning with a lead has remained virtually unchanged over the decades. Regardless of the pitching strategy, teams entering the ninth inning with a lead win roughly 95 percent of the time. That was the exact rate in 1901 and that was the rate 100 seasons later. In fact, the rate has varied merely from a high of 96.7 percent in 1909 to a low of 92.5 percent in 1941.

But I know what you’re thinking. That study applies to all leads, including big ones. But what about the slim leads, the ones defined as “save situations”? Glad you asked. Because Smith looked at those leads as well. And what he found is winning rates for those leads have also remained constant — one-run leads after eight innings have been won roughly 85 percent of the time, two-run leads 94 percent of the time and three-run leads about 96 percent of the time.
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Use your best relief man when the situation dictates, and not just in a “save” situation.

I feel it’s better to make decisions based on what is certain (we need to get out of this jam now), not on what is uncertain (but what if there are jams later?).

Think of it this way: if you’re using your best reliever in a situation that is more important than 1 inning of no out, no runners, 1-3 run lead, you’re doing something right. Bringing in your best reliever in a bases-empty situation almost seems like a waste, unless it really is the 9th inning and a greater situation never arose (say for instance, your team scores 3 in the first and the score remains 3-0 all game long. All other things being equal, I’d want the best reliever to come in trying to strand runners.

I can only imagine explaining some traditional baseball stats to a reasonable adult who is unfamiliar with the game:

Random Person: Wait…what is a pitcher win? That means his team on the game when he started, right?

ME: Yes…and no. He gets the win if he pitches at least five innings, leaves the game with the lead, and then the bullpen doesn’t give up the lead.

RP: So…what happens if pitches 8 innings, a guy in the bullpen gives up 4 runs and the lead, and then his team scores 5 more to win the game. He still gets the win…right?

ME: No, the guy who gave up four runs did.

RP: That is the stupidest f**king thing I’ve ever heard.

I’m not sure how one would go by making this analysis because how do you know in one game that the tough situation you’re facing now is the last one or that there won’t be a worse one later? Let’s say you bring your ace reliever in the 7th in a tough situation (2nd, 3rd, 0 outs) and gets the job done. Then you have an average reliever pitch the 8th or 9th and the opposition puts you in trouble again, who do you turn to now?

I’m not sure there’s a way to make a conclusive study that having the best reliever pitch in the 9th is better or worse than pitching the 7th (or 8th). I think in the end what’s really needed in the BP is not one ace reliever but two or three so you can address more than one late inning situation.