Aug 16, 2011, 9:25 AM EDT
Whenever someone wins their 300th game, we get a bunch of “no one will ever win 300 games again” columns. They’re fun until the next guy wins 300, which someone always has.
I haven’t seen any “no one will hit 600 homers again” pieces, but I imagine someone is toying with one as we speak. They’ll have to work hard to explain away Albert Pujols who, after a weak 50 games to begin the season is back to being his same old self and would seem to be a lock for 600 one day, but it’s not that hard to imagine someone getting hit by a bus.
Anyway, against that backdrop the great Dan Szymborski — and he really is great — has a column up over at ESPN.com (sadly behind the paywall, but his work is worth the price) projecting who among active players may hit 600.
I’ll give away this much: he has Pujols at 95 percent. Then it’s a huge dropoff to Miguel Cabrera at 47 percent and a bunch of guys way lower than that, either because they’re painfully young (Mike Stanton), are a bit old and too far away at the moment (Ryan Howard) are not projected to age well (Prince Fielder) or because they’ve fallen off a cliff (Adam Dunn).
I’m a little more optimistic about Fielder aging well — call me crazy — but it’s a good list and breakdown.
- Mark Teixeira says he’s having “serious pain” when he tries to run 8
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 22
- Vin Scully will return in 2016 for his 67th season of broadcasting 43
- The Athletics have a travel-heavy 2016 schedule and unsuccessfully tried to have it altered 10
- Mariners fire general manager Jack Zduriencik 72
- Pedro Martinez wonders if bad chemistry is the reason the Tigers and Mariners are out of contention 53
- Vote of non-confidence: Reds owner says manager Bryan Price won’t be fired before the season is over 23
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 87
- Sarah Palin sticks up for Curt Schilling, tells ESPN to “stick to sports” (263)
- Dan Patrick: When does ESPN cut ties with Curt Schilling? (200)
- Curt Schilling taken off of Little League World Series duty for making a really bad tweet (169)
- Curt Schilling taken off of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast this week (134)
- Phillies announcer calls Mets fans “obnoxious” (123)