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Who’s next to 600 homers?

Aug 16, 2011, 9:25 AM EDT

Milwaukee Brewers v St. Louis Cardinals Getty Images

Whenever someone wins their 300th game, we get a bunch of “no one will ever win 300 games again” columns. They’re fun until the next guy wins 300, which someone always has.

I haven’t seen any “no one will hit 600 homers again” pieces, but I imagine someone is toying with one as we speak.  They’ll have to work hard to explain away Albert Pujols who, after a weak 50 games to begin the season is back to being his same old self and would seem to be a lock for 600 one day, but it’s not that hard to imagine someone getting hit by a bus.

Anyway, against that backdrop the great Dan Szymborski — and he really is great – has a column up over at ESPN.com (sadly behind the paywall, but his work is worth the price) projecting who among active players may hit 600.

I’ll give away this much: he has Pujols at 95 percent. Then it’s a huge dropoff to Miguel Cabrera at 47 percent and a bunch of guys way lower than that, either because they’re painfully young (Mike Stanton), are a bit old and too far away at the moment (Ryan Howard) are not projected to age well (Prince Fielder) or because they’ve fallen off a cliff (Adam Dunn).

I’m a little more optimistic about Fielder aging well — call me crazy — but it’s a good list and breakdown.

  1. Matt - Aug 16, 2011 at 11:08 AM

    How dare you not give Howard a 100% chance. Philly hater.

  2. itsacurse - Aug 16, 2011 at 12:18 PM

    Pujols would seem to be a lock IF he’s really only 31…

    This is going to to get me a lot of “thumbs downs” isn’t it?

    • Kevin S. - Aug 16, 2011 at 2:05 PM

      Baseless accusations about someone’s integrity generally do.

  3. Charles Gates - Aug 16, 2011 at 12:24 PM

    600 is a lot of rally killers.

  4. ncphilliesguy - Aug 16, 2011 at 12:42 PM

    Wait, did Thome’s 600 homers actually generate runs for his team? I mean if he had only 400 homers, and had only walked a few more times, he might have generated more runs for his teams (at least while he was with the Phillies). I think 600 homers is overrated. Maybe I’ll write an article for the NY Times.

    • Utley's Hair - Aug 16, 2011 at 1:06 PM

      Thome must have just been lucky—after all, if the pitcher didn’t throw the pitch that Jim launched into the seats, it wouldn’t have been a home run, right? Hmm…I guess Jim Thome and his 600 homers are just overrated.

      • thefalcon123 - Aug 16, 2011 at 2:03 PM

        *big, dramatic, over-the-top eye roll while groaning*

      • Utley's Hair - Aug 16, 2011 at 2:14 PM

        Careful you don’t hurt yourself there. :P

    • Alex K - Aug 16, 2011 at 1:08 PM

      No one bashes Ryan Howard for his HR. The lack of other skills is why people say he is overrated.

    • paperlions - Aug 16, 2011 at 1:10 PM

      Of course, Thome has a spectacular career OBP of .403. The last time he had a OBP lower than Howard has posted the last 4 years…..1994.

    • thefalcon123 - Aug 16, 2011 at 2:02 PM

      Really? Seriously, you f**kers are so bitter that people are saying Ryan Howard is overvalued that you have to bitch about on the comments section of a story that has nothing to do with him?

    • cleverbob - Aug 16, 2011 at 2:02 PM

      Talk about hijacking a thread…

      Besides, everyone knows those home runs just mean that Thome is hogging all the ribbies.

    • thefalcon123 - Aug 16, 2011 at 2:15 PM

      Well, if Thome hit 600 home with a .330 OBP, he wouldn’t generate as many runs as a player who hit 600 with a .400 OBP.

      Just don’t tell Ryan Howard enthusiasts that.

      • Kevin S. - Aug 16, 2011 at 2:23 PM

        Sammy Sosa: 9896 PA, 609 HR, .344 OBP, 1559 wRC, 345 wRAA
        Jim Thome: 10020 PA, 600 HR, .403 OBP, 1871 wRC, 640 wRAA

        I know, I know – the flat-earthers will just bleat on about made-up stats, but the ready-made example fit your point almost perfectly.

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