Aug 16, 2011, 9:25 AM EST
Whenever someone wins their 300th game, we get a bunch of “no one will ever win 300 games again” columns. They’re fun until the next guy wins 300, which someone always has.
I haven’t seen any “no one will hit 600 homers again” pieces, but I imagine someone is toying with one as we speak. They’ll have to work hard to explain away Albert Pujols who, after a weak 50 games to begin the season is back to being his same old self and would seem to be a lock for 600 one day, but it’s not that hard to imagine someone getting hit by a bus.
Anyway, against that backdrop the great Dan Szymborski — and he really is great – has a column up over at ESPN.com (sadly behind the paywall, but his work is worth the price) projecting who among active players may hit 600.
I’ll give away this much: he has Pujols at 95 percent. Then it’s a huge dropoff to Miguel Cabrera at 47 percent and a bunch of guys way lower than that, either because they’re painfully young (Mike Stanton), are a bit old and too far away at the moment (Ryan Howard) are not projected to age well (Prince Fielder) or because they’ve fallen off a cliff (Adam Dunn).
I’m a little more optimistic about Fielder aging well — call me crazy — but it’s a good list and breakdown.
- The Padres have talked to the Phillies about Cole Hamels 18
- Why is John Smoltz a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame? 32
- Phillies GM told Ryan Howard they’d be better off “not with him but without him” 85
- Trea Turner’s agent is unhappy his client is in limbo after trade to Nationals 48
- Nexen Heroes accept Jung-Ho Kang posting fee from unidentified MLB team 35
- Giants acquire Casey McGehee from the Marlins 16
- The Padres have given their fans something to talk about. Which is badly needed in San Diego. 64
- Justin Upton traded to the Padres for three prospects 79
- Bud Selig will get a $6 million a year pension. Which is obscene. (145)
- The United States will seek to normalize relations with Cuba (144)
- Rays, Padres, Nationals agree to 11-player trade (97)
- Chase Headley signs a four-year deal with the Yankees worth at least $52 million. (95)
- St. Petersburg City Council votes down deal to allow Rays to look for new stadium site (90)