Aug 16, 2011, 9:25 AM EDT
Whenever someone wins their 300th game, we get a bunch of “no one will ever win 300 games again” columns. They’re fun until the next guy wins 300, which someone always has.
I haven’t seen any “no one will hit 600 homers again” pieces, but I imagine someone is toying with one as we speak. They’ll have to work hard to explain away Albert Pujols who, after a weak 50 games to begin the season is back to being his same old self and would seem to be a lock for 600 one day, but it’s not that hard to imagine someone getting hit by a bus.
Anyway, against that backdrop the great Dan Szymborski — and he really is great – has a column up over at ESPN.com (sadly behind the paywall, but his work is worth the price) projecting who among active players may hit 600.
I’ll give away this much: he has Pujols at 95 percent. Then it’s a huge dropoff to Miguel Cabrera at 47 percent and a bunch of guys way lower than that, either because they’re painfully young (Mike Stanton), are a bit old and too far away at the moment (Ryan Howard) are not projected to age well (Prince Fielder) or because they’ve fallen off a cliff (Adam Dunn).
I’m a little more optimistic about Fielder aging well — call me crazy — but it’s a good list and breakdown.
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- David Price surrenders nine consecutive hits to the Yankees in the worst start of his career 20
- Video: Jorge Soler homers in his first major league at-bat 22
- Adam Wainwright has a “dead arm” 32
- HBT Daily: Alex Gordon and the Royals keep on rolling 12
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 43
- Mariners extend general manager Jack Zduriencik’s contract 14
- Money, money, money (and Bud Selig’s nirvana) 16
- The Cubs grounds crew was short staffed because the Cubs were trying to avoid Obamacare (247)
- Forgiveness for Pete Rose? Not in this lifetime (144)
- Great Moments in Drug Testing and Punishment: The NFL Edition (99)
- Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to sign with the Red Sox for $72 million (96)
- A pitch clock in Major League Baseball? No thanks. (92)