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Will the Phillies give Cole Hamels a Jered Weaver-like deal?

Aug 22, 2011, 12:12 PM EDT

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels delivers a pitch to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning of their National League MLB baseball game in Philadelphia

Jered Weaver‘s new five-year, $85 million extension with the Angels has set the market for young aces nearing free agency and Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer speculates that that Phillies may try to sign Cole Hamels to a similar contract.

Weaver is a year older than Hamels, but in terms of service time they’re identical. Hamels, like Weaver, is eligible for free agency after the 2012 season.

They also have identical 3.39 career ERAs, with Weaver logging 1,084 innings compared to 1,117 innings for Hamels. Since the beginning of last season Weaver has thrown 413 innings with a 2.60 ERA, while Hamels has thrown 381 innings with a 2.86 ERA.

Gelb notes that Hamels has the edge in terms of postseason performance and his higher 2011 salary could push the baseline of a potential deal up slightly compared to Weaver, but if the Phillies want to lock up their elite young starter $85 million for five seasons is a good place to kick off negotiations.

  1. halladaysbiceps - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:15 PM

    No. Cole will get much more. He will be looking for Cliff Lee money. And the Phillies will give it to him.

    • halladaysbiceps - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:13 PM

      BREAKING NEWS: Jimmy Rollins, Grade 2 strained groin. Placed on the DL. Out until sometime in September.

      Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

      • drmonkeyarmy - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:15 PM

        Did they announce a corresponding roster move? My guess is the activation of Polanco.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:16 PM

        Sucks, but they will be fine with Valdez

      • halladaysbiceps - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:17 PM

        No official announcement on the roster move, but, with the activation of Polanco today, that makes sense.

        This sucks. What bad news!!!

      • Utley's Hair - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:19 PM

        So he’ll be rested for late September and October. Good news: the Hawaiian outfielder bats leadoff, right?

      • drmonkeyarmy - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:23 PM

        The Phillies have an outfielder from Hawaii? You think if that were true it would get more press. In all seriousness, I don’t see any other options other than Victorino. My guess:
        Victorino, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Pence, Ibanez/Mayberry Jr., Ruiz, Valdez

      • halladaysbiceps - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:23 PM

        Yeah. Victorino will probably lead off.

        1. Victorino
        2. Polanco
        3. Utley
        4. Howard
        5. Pence
        6. Ibanez/Mayberry Jr.
        7. Ruiz
        8. Valdez/Martinez

  2. paperlions - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:16 PM

    Oh great, let’s see how Philly fans turn this into a discussion about the Phillies.

    • tjv027 - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:18 PM

      Yeah, leave it to Philly fans to turn an article about the Phillies into a discussion about the Phillies. Go to your room.

      • aceshigh11 - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:21 PM

        He was being sarcastic.

        This site should be re-named:

        “Philadelphia Phillies Fans Talk About The Philadelphia Phillies, Even When the Philadelphia Phillies Aren’t Mentioned in the Posted Article”

      • kopy - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:23 PM

        However, this strategy of posting an article explicitly about the Phillies keeps the phans quarantined. I don’t mind it.

      • FC - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:25 PM

        I believe “le lion de papier” was being humorous and poking fun at the whiners?

      • mojosmagic - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:30 PM

        Hello Village Idiot going by the name TJV. The article’s title is “Will the Phillies give Cole Hamels a Jered Weaver-like deal”? He mentions Cole Hamels several times in the article and the last time I checked Hamels pitches for the Phillies. Did you become a moron naturally or inherit the trait by way of poor family genetics?

      • Utley's Hair - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:32 PM

        Mojo, that was his point. As a matter of fact, that is basically what he said.

    • tjv027 - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:32 PM

      mojosmagic – Aug 22, 2011 at 12:30 PM
      Hello Village Idiot going by the name TJV. The article’s title is “Will the Phillies give Cole Hamels a Jered Weaver-like deal”? He mentions Cole Hamels several times in the article and the last time I checked Hamels pitches for the Phillies. Did you become a moron naturally or inherit the trait by way of poor family genetics?
      —————————————————————————————

      I was sarcastically making fun of the trolls that will still complain about Phillies fans, although this is a Phillies article. What’s that about village idiot?

      • jjschiller - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:37 PM

        This is fun to watch!

        But wait, how are the rest of us going to know when one of you pukes on the other one?

      • FC - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:47 PM

        Except paperlions was already being sarcastic, so what was your point in posting a sarcastic reply to a sarcastic comment?

      • wlschneider09 - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:12 PM

        i’m gonna guess sarcasm!

        Gosh I hope I’m right….

      • Utley's Hair - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:43 PM

        Sarcasm? Here on HBT? NEVER!!!!!!

    • paperlions - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:39 PM

      C’mon guys, it was all in good fun. I don’t begrudge Philly Phans their enthusiam, but there is a certain segment of regular HBT visitors that roll their eyes at the ability of Phans to turn just about any post into a Phillies discussion.

      Just a friendly jest, if you can’t laugh at yourself, you don’t have a sense of humor.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:49 PM

        If it weren’t for the Phillies fans posting on here, there would literally be about 3-5 posts per entry on average.

      • FC - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:58 PM

        Don’t mistake a few turds for the general impression Mr. Lion. Most of us (sadly not all) got the point that you were making fun.

      • paperlions - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:16 PM

        Just trying to be clear is all.

        Chris, that isn’t necessarily true. There are plenty of threads I would comment on, but by the time I see them (often < 1 hr after posting), there will be 50-100 comments by you guys discussion Philly stuff that isn't related to the topic of the post, and many of the discussions are exactly the same, day after day. After scrolling through some of it, I typically just move on to the next post as there seems to be little point in commenting on a thread when 90% of the comments don't have to do with the topic.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:33 PM

        But like I said on a previous post…most of the time, the Phillies angle isn’t brought up by a Phillies fan. It is brought up by someone disputing a Phillies fan.

        For example, in the Brewers post, I said that they have a terrible road record, and the next thing I know I am fighting off 5 Brewers fans chomping at the bit for the big September 8-11 series. I didn’t mention anything about the phillies first and I was bombarded.

        So sometimes, it is others seeing me as a Phillies fan post, and creating the Phillies angle. Not me. Then I tried to be funny and do it directly in the Mets attendance posting and people thought I was serious…when my post was dripping with sarcasm. Because people have the wrong impression.

        ATH is fair game for all fans to post on, so anybody who would whine about that one is just hatin’.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:39 PM

        And here’s the best part, paper…there is not a single posting today that is non-Phillies related that contains Phillies talk. Not one. Sure, there’s the Rollins and Hamels posts and they have a lot of comments because, sorry, but a lot of Phillies fans read this blog.

        I had a heated debate with dedouchededouchededouche a couple weeks back and he hasn’t been heard from since because he is a troll.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:49 PM

        Then I went and did it on the Austin Jackson posting, although I really did think that Victorino caught the flyball and forgot it was a single that he threw the guy out at the plate. Oh well…mea culpa.

  3. tjv027 - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:17 PM

    Between Oswalt and Lidge, there’s enough coming off the pitching payroll in the offseason to pay this man. Don’t even bother with arbitration.

    • halladaysbiceps - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:26 PM

      Don’t forget about Madson. He won’t be here as well next year, in my opinion. The Phillies will not give him 12-14 million a year for the next 3 years when they have both Hamels and Rollins to address in the offseason, as well as the raises they have to pay for all of their other players. For example, Lee’s salary jumps from 11.5 to 22.5 mil for 2012. Howard jumps from 20 mil to 25 mil.

      • tjv027 - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:35 PM

        Totally agree, someone will pay Madson and it doesn’t make sense for us, especially since this organization seems confident in Bastardo’s ability to close. Now, I love Jimmy Rollins, and he’s essentially a folk hero in this city, but I hope they don’t overpay for him. Also, Ibanez’s 11.5 million coming off the books helps, since they do not need to address LF in free agency.

      • Charles Gates - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:42 PM

        Rollins should bat 7th and take a huge pay cut.

    • Kevin S. - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

      Actually, extensions typically price a rough guesstimate of what a player likely would have made during an arbitration year into it. For example, I had Hamels (conservatively) pegged for $12 million next season. A six-year, $117 million extension would probably go $12 MM next year, then $21 MM/year for the five FA years bought out. It’s the budgets from 2013 going forward that a Hamels extension would affect.

  4. mojosmagic - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:22 PM

    I love it when writers who are making $10.00 and hour push deals worth 85 millions. You might think they are getting a cut in the action.

    • kopy - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:29 PM

      If only HBT offered a link for a printer-friendly format so Hamels will use less ink when he makes a copy of this article to bring to the negotiating table.

    • churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:43 PM

      You’re on crack if you don’t think the Yanks are going to bid heavily on Hamels if he hits FA. They spent $85M on AJ Burnett and he didn’t have the track record Hamels does.

      • CJ - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:50 PM

        and you’re on crack if you think the Phils will let Hamels make it to FA.

  5. proudlycanadian - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:25 PM

    Weaver is probably the better pitcher. As ERA’s tend to be about a half a run higher in the AL than the NL, Weaver has quite likely been better than Hamels. Of course, if Boras was Hamels agent, he would try to “prove” that Hamels was more valuable because he is a lefty.

    • Jonny 5 - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:38 PM

      The AL west isn’t exactly tougher than the NL east. And Cole Hamels is better than Weaver, if by the slightest of margins at that. x Fip tells us it’s bigger than it really is, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to compare them at all.

      • scatterbrian - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:08 PM

        These guys pitch about half of their games against teams outside their divisions. Besides, Hamels doesn’t face his own team, i.e. take the Phillies out of the NL East Hamels faces and you have the Braves and three crummy sub-.500 teams….Weaver has the Rangers and two crummy sub-.500 teams.

      • scatterbrian - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:29 PM

        Thumbs down? Does Hamels pitch against the Phillies?

    • tjv027 - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:40 PM

      You may be right, but there’s not an easy way to prove it. The fact is, their numbers are virtually the same, and Hamels has NLCS MVP and WS MVP trophies on his shelf. I think he will get more than Weaver.

      • scatterbrian - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:58 PM

        Weaver could very possibly have a Cy Young trophy after this season.

      • Utley's Hair - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:10 PM

        Isn’t Hamels’ name being bandied about for that same award in the NL?

      • scatterbrian - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

        Probably, but as of today he’s the third best candidate on his own team.

        But the point of the comment is that Weaver could close the trophy gap making it a less significant piece of ammo for Hamels’ agent.

      • tjv027 - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:59 PM

        Weaver could possibly have a Cy Young, but it’s unlikely in my opinion. The favorites right now are Sabathia and Verlander, I think. Despite King Felix’s win last year, I still feel that pitchers that have Cy-worthy years for postseason-bound teams have an edge.

    • FC - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:51 PM

      I also think he will get more because of post-season accomplishments, but primarily because when he negotiates he will compare himself to Halladay and Lee, not Weaver.

    • Charles Gates - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:51 PM

      ERA isn’t park adjusted. Citizens bank park gives up the 16th most HRs per game where as Angel Stadium of Anaheim is 27th.
      I’d imagine that the park factors involved with the different stadiums counter acts a lot of the AL/NL strength of lineup differences.

      • proudlycanadian - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

        Good point. It does counter my argument nicely, but each pitcher plays about half his games on the road.

  6. phillyphever - Aug 22, 2011 at 12:47 PM

    I think 5/90 is a fair deal for Hamels, but we’ll see.

  7. Jonny 5 - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:10 PM

    By xFIP Weaver and Hamels aren’t even in the same conversation.

    6th best for Cole. 30th for Weaver.

    • Jonny 5 - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:11 PM

      http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0

    • Jonny 5 - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:08 PM

      And by FIP not adjusted Hamels is better too.

  8. Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:14 PM

    So, I glean from these comments that Phillies fans are overly sensitive, completely stupid when it comes to recognizing sarcasm, and can’t take a joke. OK, I think we got it. It’d be nice if a few of you would take a day off and let the grown-up Phillies fans be your mouthpiece mmkay?

    PS. For the same nozzles I refer to above, please note that this comment is dripping with pure, unleaded sarcasm. I say this just so you can put that in your personal “how to recognize sarcasm when it’s in text only format” notebook.

    PPS. Hamels will likely get a bit more than Weaver in his next contract in my opinion. The extent to which it is greater than Weaver’s, will be the extent of which the Phillies overpay for Hamels, if they do in fact overpay him at all.

    • Utley's Hair - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:25 PM

      “Glean,” Heyward? I’m impressed. And I see what you did up there with the blanket statement above, before you say that the adults should take over. Who are the adults? ‘Cause I could use a drink.

      • Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:56 PM

        You know who you are. Now go get your self a Monday afternoon cocktail.

    • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:28 PM

      Hamels will get more because the Phillies have a higher payroll, and as they showed with Mr. Lucky, they are not bashful about spending money on keeping their homegrown talent, provided they are worth the cash. The question is whether Hamels will want to sign early and stay a part of the Aces or whether he will want to go out and make it somewhere else. Let’s all not forget that Cole and Mrs. Hamels are West Coasters at heart and I wouldn’t be shocked if he decided to test Free Agency just so he can have a decision on whether to go home. Of course, I doubt the Padres would be paying Hamels cash, but in a couple years, maybe they will decide to build a new staff around him.

      • Kevin S. - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:49 PM

        “provided they are worth the cash.”

        As they showed with Mr. Lucky, this isn’t actually a consideration.

      • Mr. Jason "El Bravo" Heyward - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:55 PM

        God, Hamels would win the Cy Young every freakin’ year in SD. That move is good for no one…except Hamels’ family maybe and the lone remaining Padres fan.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:01 PM

        To the Phillies and most of their fans, Mr. Lucky is certainly well worth the money. To the sabremetric people, he isn’t.

        You say tomato…we say tom-ah-to.

      • Kevin S. - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:03 PM

        Will he be worth the money in a year or two when he’s worse than he is now and the Phillies can’t put as good of a team on the field as they otherwise might have because he’s eating up too much of their budget?

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:17 PM

        Kevin, when you have a team with this much payroll, then there is no such thing as “too much”/ And besides, if they win the World Series this year, then it doesn’t really matter. I would rather have 2 world series and 10 years of suck then no world series and 10 years of playoffs.

      • Kevin S. - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:41 PM

        Chris, I’ve gotta disagree there. The Phillies do have a finite budget. Depending on who one believes, they’re either up against it or slightly over it right now. In 2013 (the year this would start affecting the budget), they currently have $82 million committed to four players. If Hamels is making $20 million, that becomes $102 million for three starters, a first baseman, and a second baseman. Care to explain how they fill out a roster with $60-$80 MM that couldn’t be significantly helped if there was another $10-$15 MM available?

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:53 PM

        Assuming they make the playoffs in 2011 and 2012 and they win a World Series or even 2, then who are we right now to say the payroll doesn’t go up to $200 million during these prosperous times? Like I said…why worry about tomorrow when you are winning today. They paid Ryan Howard what they thought he deserved. When you quote all the sabremetrics, you fail to keep in mind that not every team looks at sabremetrics. What if the Angels want to sell tickets, and figure a big bopper with a zillion RBIs would look good on their team. Why would the Phillies wait? Spend a few million more a year and get the guy wrapped up for good. Do you think he was going to sign for less than $20 million a year? If so, then you may be sabremetric, but you aren’t GM metric because there is no way if he leads the league in RBI again is somebody out there NOT going to give him $20-22 million a year. The Phillies paid a couple million more to avoid the headaches.

      • Kevin S. - Aug 22, 2011 at 7:32 PM

        It’s funny you mention the Angels, because they’ve really wrecked their flexibility by taking on Wells’ contract. People used the same justifications for that move that they do with the Howard extension.

        Ryan Howard is better than Vernon Wells, obviously, but the point stands that inefficient allocations of finite resources creates a payroll crunch. Ryan Howard is going to be one of the five highest paid players in baseball, and he’s nowhere near one of the five-best players.

  9. halladaysbiceps - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:36 PM

    Lyrics to Hey Hey We’re The Phillies (Theme) :

    Here we come, walking down the street
    We get the funniest looks from everyone we meet.

    Hey, hey, we’re the Phillies
    And people say we don’t F*** around,
    But we’re too busy winning
    To put anybody down.

    You know that we want to
    Do what we like to do,
    The only time we get restless
    Is when we lose

    Hey, hey, we’re the Phillies
    And people say we don’t F*** around,
    But we’re too busy winning
    To put anybody down.

    -Davy Jones, 2011

  10. dbick - Aug 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

    Considering he’s younger and better than Weaver I would love if he accepted a Weaver-type deal from the Phillies. I don’t know if you can every say 17 million a year is a steal, but it would be pretty damn close to one for Hamels.

  11. joshftw - Aug 22, 2011 at 2:30 PM

    Considering the Phillies have already broken the bank and the farm system to build their current roster, how can they possibly afford to keep it?
    They need to re-sign Rollins, pay Pence a hefty arbitration fee, give Hamels his due, and they need to sign a new 3rd baseman (plus a reliever or two wouldn’t hurt).

    • CJ - Aug 22, 2011 at 3:55 PM

      Say goodbye to Lidge, Madson, Oswalt, Blanton, Ibanez, Contreras, Moyer (at least I think he’s still on payroll this year).

      And don’t be shocked if they use a cheaper replacement to Rollins and let him walk too. I expect them to go cheaper at 1 of either 3rd or short to start the year, and if it doesn’t work then go get the missing piece at the deadline. Which is pretty much exactly what they did this year in right.

      • Utley's Hair - Aug 22, 2011 at 4:28 PM

        Grandpa’s contract was up at the end of 2010. But part of me wants him to hang around as a pitching instructor/consultant or something.

        And I haven’t quite given up on the Roy-ling yet, either.

    • dbick - Aug 22, 2011 at 7:15 PM

      They can afford it, even if they weren’t getting a bunch of contracts off the books, because they are a big market team. They play in one of the biggest markets on the east coast and ever since the new stadium was built they have become a cash cow. The days of the phillies nickle and diming for players are all but gone. They’re not at a red sox/yankees level, but they’re not too far away from there either.

  12. tommyfroy - Aug 22, 2011 at 4:31 PM

    Hamels deal should fall somewhere between Weaver’s and Lee’s, though closer to Lee’s but it won’t be with the Phillies. It’ll be with the Yankees after Sabathia opts out of the remainder of his current deal.

  13. vicksprman - Aug 22, 2011 at 10:36 PM

    Phils will overpay for Hamels, whatever the budget is down in South Philly it will stretch for Cole. Hell they print money in the basement of the CBP.

  14. purnellmeagrejr - Aug 23, 2011 at 8:31 AM

    I;m surprised the stats were that close; I consider Weaver a step or two above Hamels today and certainly consider him a better bet going forward.

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