Beyond his questionable methods at picking awards, he is a clearinghouse for trade rumors – 90% of which seem to have no substance.

Hellickson is close to being a no-brainer. But don’t be surprised if Nova pitches some big games in September and snatches it away.

Just because mistakes have been made in the past doesn’t mean that they should be repeated this year. Trumbo is having a much better season than Young had in 2007, but that still doesn’t mean that he’s one of the more deserving candidates (he’s not). My question is, how do you not even consider Ackley and Jennings in this discussion? Both of these players have been more valuable to their respective teams in a fraction of the ABs that Trumbo has had. This isn’t even a discussion like last year where Posey had fewer ABs and less value over the entirety of the season, but more value per AB than Heyward. These guys have had more value over the entire season, despite only playing in a fraction of the games that Trumbo has. The choice between Trumbo and either Ackley or Jennings is an easy one. The argument between Ackley and Jennings is more nuanced and more similar to last year’s NL debate, but this article didn’t touch that, so neither will I.

And what about Britton? Where is he in the discussion? Hasn’t he had a better season than Hellickson or Nova? (Hint: the answer is yes).

Despite what you write, arguing for Ackley and Jennings over Trumbo and Britton over Hellickson and Nova makes all the sense in the world. Do Hellickson, Nova and Trumbo belong in the discussion? Sure, why not, but the three front runners at this point really SHOULD be Pineda, Ackley and Jennings, with Trumbo coming in a close fourth.

If you think the former, then your point is made. But if you consider the actual performance of the player-pitcher, not extraneous factors such as strength of team or defense, then I think you have to look beyond the standard stats.

It is similar to the argument over last year’s Cy Young. What seemed to sway many voters was the argument that despite his mediocre record, Felix had actually pitched better than other competitors for the award. In the Hellickson case, he has pitched well, but aside from W-L record and ERA, every other signifier indicates Pineda has been better.

K rate: 9.18-6.15
BB rate: 2.94-3.13
HR/9: .94-.96
BABIP: .256-.236
LOB%: 69.5-80.7
GB%: 35.1-31.5
FIP: 3.41-4.16
xFIP: 3.50-4.52
WAR: 2.9-1.6
IP: 153-149.1

Source: Fangraphs

In BB-Ref the differences are not as stark in some cases. In fact, when neutralized, Hellickson looks better as does his WAR. But the point remains that in determining who deserves the award, it does make sense to look at the whole picture, not just at records and ERA.

Doing that, we see some small differences, some big, but almost all favor Pineda. So who has pitched better?

Pineda has struck out 50% more guys, walked fewer, and has a higher GB rate. Hellickson hasn’t been nearly as good as his ERA suggests, in part because the Rays have great team defense.

Hellickson’s ERA is 20% lower than either Pineda or Nova. If your sabre’s say either of them have had a better year, I’d rethink how much validity those stats have.

As for Heyman; well come on. What could anyone expect? Squirrels chase that guy down the street. Clowns bow to him out of professional respect. Decks of cards are produced with this joker in it. Few of his arguments are defensible is what i’m saying. Even a blind chicken finds corn every once awhile (so my Grammy attests, since she had a blind hen) and so it was with Heyman this AM: he produced an argument for MVP which, quite by accident, fell upon your sympathetic ears because you largely have the same opinion yourself. You needn’t fear that’ll happen too many more times in your lifetime I bet.

He will get almost as many AB to finish the season, so if you double his numbers, 15 HR, 30 SB, 40 XBH,.440 OBP, I certainly think his 40% are more valuable than Trumbo’s 100% of a season at first base.

David Price has more innings because he has 5 more starts than Hellickson. They are limiting his innings by skipping several starts, and not allowed him to go as deep as Price in games. He has been more consistent than Price.

What are your thoughts on Jennings’ chances, not of winning, but receiving some votes. Is 275 enough at bats to garner some votes?