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Is career-high workload catching up to Jered Weaver?

Sep 5, 2011, 10:15 AM EDT

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim v Detroit Tigers Getty Images

Jered Weaver has turned in back-to-back ugly starts, allowing 13 runs in 11 innings while his ERA rose from 2.03 to 2.49, but manager Mike Scioscia told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times that “his arm feels good” and there are no physical issues to blame.

Weaver is on pace for a career-high 238 innings, but it’s not that far above last season’s total of 224 innings. DiGiovanna notes that Weaver ranks second in the majors in pitches thrown behind only Justin Verlander, but his 3,815-pitch pace is only about three percent above last year’s total of 3,713 pitches.

“He wasn’t as crisp and his fastball command was off, but he has enough gas in his tank to finish the season strong,” Scioscia said. “In talking with him, his arm feels good. Sometimes you’re going to be out of sorts.”

Adding to the scrutiny is that Weaver signed a five-year, $85 million contract extension on August 23. He’s scheduled to start Friday against the Yankees, so if Weaver isn’t at full strength New York’s lineup should make it pretty obvious.

  1. dailyrev - Sep 5, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    A month or so ago I was talking with some young stat-heads who know more about beisbol than I do now because they can crunch numbers. I said that JV is your Cy guy and they started yakking at me about Weaver’s FIP and WHIP and WARP and WOOF, that they’re all better than JV’s. I replied that this may all be so but Verlander’s a more mature pitcher, a winner — and that game where his mere presence so intimidated Weaver that the kid did something really horrible and bad for his team (throwing at that fellow’s head after someone hit a HR off him) proved it. I finished up by saying: “JV’s the winner, he’s the one of these two I’d want on my team because of his maturity.” The remark was met with the requisite howls of laughter — “what metric do you have to quantify this maturity of yours?”

    Just a little vignette about where our society is headed…

    • churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged - Sep 5, 2011 at 11:10 AM

      Just a little vignette about where our society is headed…

      Ignorant of math and higher education?

    • SmackSaw - Sep 5, 2011 at 11:17 AM

      FIP and WHIP and WARP and WOOF

      LOL!

      Like that crap really matters.

    • mattjg - Sep 5, 2011 at 11:21 AM

      That young stat-head was wrong. Weaver’s xFIP, FIP and SIERA are higher (i.e. worse) than Verlander’s and have been for some time.

      If you honestly believe that Verlander’s presence made Weaver throw at a player and this shows you all you need to know about the two pitchers, I’m happy to live in a society that leaves you behind.

  2. ThisIsBaseball - Sep 5, 2011 at 10:32 AM

    He also threw on three days rest against Texas on the first of the two starts be bombed on. Maybe that effected him. Could also be the death of his grandfather, too.

  3. Old Gator - Sep 5, 2011 at 10:57 AM

    I hope Sciosca isn’t trying to tell us that weaver suffers “no structural damage.”

  4. ditto65 - Sep 5, 2011 at 11:01 AM

    I wonder if his workload has anything to do with his sunny disposition.

  5. mattjg - Sep 5, 2011 at 11:25 AM

    Weaver’s workload could be catching up to him, but I think the more likely explanation is that anything can happen over 13 innings. A 13-inning stretch, without knowing more, is probably just a blip on the radar.

    Weaver’s ERA of 2.03 was probably unsustainable since it was heavily aided by a low BABIP and a high strand rate. Weaver is a very good pitcher, but ERA estimators put him at .5 (FIP) to 1 (xFIP & SIERA) run higher than his actual ERA.

    • SmackSaw - Sep 5, 2011 at 12:17 PM

      Do you have a girlfriend?

    • churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged - Sep 5, 2011 at 2:17 PM

      Could also be a regression to the mean on his HR rate. The last 5 starts he’s given up more HR (7) than he had in the previous 25 starts combined(!).

      • churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged - Sep 5, 2011 at 2:18 PM

        Oops, make that one less HR than the previous 25. Missed a 2HR game in there.

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