Honestly there was no reason to put xFIP in my last post I just threw it out there even though it has no bearing on what actually happened. At the end of the day Carpenter didn’t give up those HR’s and they shouldn’t matter in the Cy Young voting.

I just have a hard time with a persons teammates factoring in to an individual award. We’re going to have to agree to disagree because you’re never going to convince me that team defense should factor in to the CYA voting.

JV- 2.77 FIP
CC- 2.78 FIP

Looks like they were basically the same to me. And Vasquez did it over more innings.

We could go further and look at xFIP which normalizes Carpenters out of wack with the rest of his career homerun rate and it looks like this:

JV- 2.77
CC- 3.34

I get it…you’re a Cardinals fan. We can even disagree and it’s no big deal. But to call that vote ignorant is just sour grapes.

This year if you include pitchers with .63 more ERA than the 3 leaders the following hurlers join the Cy Young discussion: Cueto, Lincecum, Vogelsong, Hamels, Cain, Jurrjens and Kennedy. All good pitchers having fine years but hardly serious contenders for the CYA.

Law’s vote was ignorant then, and it remains ignorant today.

WAR for Pitchers
1. Halladay (PHI) 7.2
2. Lee (PHI) 6.7
3. Kershaw (LAD) 6.3
4. Hamels (PHI) 5.2
5. Kennedy (ARI) 4.7

Lee: 46 OPS+, 0.5 oWAR, 5 sacrifices
Kershaw: 39 OPS+, 0.5 oWAR, 9 sacrifices

(And the sacs are relevant here because pitchers are such bad hitters that a successful sacrifice does provide value)

Halladay is significantly worse (-10 OPS+), but there’s really nothing to separate Kershaw and Lee as hitters, especially given the small number of plate appearances total. On a side note, the few advanced defensive stats available for pitchers have Lee and Kershaw about even and Halladay a little worse. My personal feeling is that there is a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove for reward pitchers for their hitting and fielding, and the Cy Young to reward them for what they do on the mound.

Statements like, “If I had one pitcher to pitch a deciding game it would be…”, should have no bearing on yearly awards. Sure ballparks should enter the conversation, but the ESPN ballpark numbers fluctuate so dramatically from year to year, that their formula has to be questioned.

Looks like a dead heat at this point, with the Dodgers’ defense negating any ballpark factors. Hopefully, someone will step forward in the final two weeks, but with 3 contenders that likelihood is slim. If I were forced to vote, I guess I would give it to Lee by a nose.

If the numbers are super close (like they are this year and were in 2009) then 1 inning is not enough of a difference to make a difference. However, 27 innings (or better put- at least three games worth of innings) is a big difference. Carpenter started 28 games in 2009 Vazquez started 32. There is a lot of value in those 4 extra starts.

If you want to argue that He should have had Wainwright over Vazquez you might be right. Keith Law is a lot of things some positive some negative, but biased against any one team or inconsistent aren’t two of them.

speaking of stats…

That’s the excuse he used to keep Carpenter from getting his vote in 2009. So he has to use the same reasoning this year, or look like a fraud.

Excuse, look like more a fraud then he already is.

honestly ask yourself, who would you want on the mound for your team in game 7 of the world series?

Kershaw, Halladay or Lee?

I’ll take Halladay. (And thats not because I may be a Phillies homer.)

Doc 166
Lee 163(updated)
Kershaw 159