Comments on: Stat of the Day: Matt Kemp is winning the WAR http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/ Baseball. Baseball. And then a bit more baseball. Thu, 20 Jun 2013 10:26:45 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: paperlions http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197904 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 23:29:35 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197904 GG awards are more correlated with offensive performance than defensive performance….so…yeah, like that year.

Over the long-term every defensive metric shows Kemp to be a bad defender, with one year (2009, actually) grading out as slightly above average by both metrics. The statisticians that have studied and developed these metrics trust UZR more than TZ and have explained why (mostly because of the finer grain of the data). Unless you have a reason to over-ride those that know more than you about it…there really isn’t a justifiable reason to choose the inferior metric.

]]> By: bigleagues http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197892 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:49:21 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197892 That is weird!

For literally what must have been several months during a period in my life Ben Folds discs would, on a daily basis, go from the disc player in my living room to the one in my car to the CD tray on my work PC and then back to the car to restart the cycle.

Dude’s a genius song writer. When i finally got to see him live on Horde Tour one year . . . literally I saw at least a dozen different chicks throw extended boob flashes at him. Been to hundreds of concerts and seen lots of crazy stuff . . . but a dude who plays piano and looks like he walked off of the Happy Days set had the highest bare chest rate I’d ever seen.

So I was depressed to see he’s a judge on some American Idol knock-off. Oh, how the mighty have fallen!

]]> By: bigleagues http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197889 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:36:58 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197889 Ned Colletti is a good dude and a better GM than he has been allowed to be in LA.

]]> By: davidpom50 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197858 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:56:16 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197858 Kemp hits in one out of the 9 positions in the batting order. Kershaw pitches every fifth game. Mystery solved.

]]> By: Max Power http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197816 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 19:32:47 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197816 Fair points all. Still, just doesn’t feel right to me.

]]> By: Ace http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197812 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 19:29:16 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197812 I’m still not entirely sure which WAR I prefer. So just for fun, here’s how the leaders shake out if you average the two. (This get into serious hair-splitting territory, but I think it’s intersting all the same.)

Kemp: 8.9
Bautista: 8.4
Ellsbury: 7.9
Verlander: 7.75
Halladay: 7.45
Kershaw: 7.1
Braun: 7.05
Lee: 7

]]> By: Lukehart80 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197810 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 19:26:28 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197810 Yet even in fWAR, which is “less generous” to Kemp, he still leads the National League and has a comfortable margin over Braun.

]]> By: Mark http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197789 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:32:16 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197789 UZR is better than TZ. http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/if_you_have_uzr_and_tz_should_you_ever_use_fraa/

I trust the fWAR a lot more. Kemp`s having a hell of a season, but I wouldn`t argue he`s a full win over Bautista.

]]> By: sabathiawouldbegoodattheeighthtoo http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197788 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:30:24 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197788 From what I have heard (since I don’t watch Dodger games with regularity) the consensus is that Kemp takes good routes and has a good arm, but not great range (as one might suspect from a big guy playing CF). It seems that the range component of UZR is the most suspect with the low rankings of Granderson this season (UZR can’t handle pre-pitch positioning) & the waffling on Jason Bay 2 years ago (‘he’s the worst LF in baseball’ followed by ‘OK wait, he’s slightly above average’) as recent examples.

If the most flawed component of the flawed defensive metric is the only thing holding Kemp back, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since his numbers on offense are so much better than anyone else who plays a premium position.

]]> By: Bill http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197787 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:28:45 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197787 It’s actually amazing that the Dodgers are at .500, given the futility of 92% of the roster. No other position player is above 2.0 WAR (the benchmark for an average regular), and only one other pitcher is. If you’ve got the best hitter and best pitcher on the same team (and I don’t think Kershaw is that, but close enough), and literally everyone else on the team kind of sucks, .500 almost seems a touch high.

]]> By: Bill http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197783 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:26:05 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197783 I had this song in my head for several minutes before I saw this comment. Weird.

]]> By: Bill http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197779 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:23:38 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197779 *defense, not data. Oops

]]> By: Bill http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197777 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:23:13 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197777 I don’t see “consistently terrible data for years.” All the metrics (I glanced at TZ, UZR, FRAA) seem to have him slightly below average for a few years, above average in 2009, then below (truly terrible, according to some, but for the first time) in 2010.

]]> By: sabathiawouldbegoodattheeighthtoo http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197773 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:19:23 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197773 You are right, Kemp sucks. #sarcasm

Honestly though, if the point of the article is to compare apples to apples, or bWARs to bWARs, those are some pretty remarkable stats.

]]> By: cup0pizza http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197769 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:17:39 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197769 Maybe their GM shouldn’t be Ned Colletti. Can’t penalize Kemp/Kershaw for that.

]]> By: sabathiawouldbegoodattheeighthtoo http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197767 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:16:53 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197767 You probably need more than 2 guys to have a winning season, and the Dodgers do not have more than 2 guys this year…

]]> By: cup0pizza http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197766 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:16:18 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197766 His consistently terrible defense like 2009 when he won the Gold Glove?

]]> By: bigleagues http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197765 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:16:03 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197765 I guess it could be said that, as it pertains to Matt Kemp, that many people have been . . .

]]> By: Max Power http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197763 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:15:05 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197763 I’m all for not penalizing an MVP or Cy Young candidate for being on a bad team.

But I’m not sure I’m okay with both the MVP and the Cy Young coming from the same .500, third place team.

I know the numbers are infallible (other than the numbers that are unreliable), but if the Dodgers have the best offensive and defensive players in the NL, maybe that pesky team-wins number should be higher.

]]> By: Ben http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197760 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:10:01 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197760 I agree that that we can’t probably convinced of the merits of UZR vs. TZ, that’s for sure. But given his consistently terrible defense for years I tend to suspect UZR less on this one. But defense stats sure are a bugaboo.

]]> By: Bill http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197756 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:06:28 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197756 Why, though? The difference (to within .1) between Kemp’s fWAR and rWAR is almost entirely defense, and I don’t think there’s anyone on earth that can convincingly tell you whether UZR (-4) or Total Zone (+9) is more accurate for Kemp’s 2011 and why.

]]> By: paperlions http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197748 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 18:00:14 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197748 Co-sign

]]> By: Ben http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197741 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 17:55:18 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197741 fWAR is much less generous to Kemp. He trails Ellsbury by .5 WAR by fWAR. And I trust fWAR a bit more.

]]> By: cup0pizza http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/23/stat-of-the-day-matt-kemp-is-winning-the-war/comment-page-1/#comment-197739 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 17:54:23 +0000 http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=87572#comment-197739 This Bison is a beast and the obvious choice for NL MVP.

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