Oct 6, 2011, 7:07 PM EDT
While waiting for the decisive Game 5 to start, it’s hard not to notice that the Yankees have outscored the Tigers 26-14 through four games in the ALDS.
And I get the feeling tonight’s game will play out in the same manner that the previous games did: either the Yankees will win big or the Tigers will prevail in a tight one.
Of course, the Yankees can win a close game, too, what with David Robertson and Mariano Rivera well rested and ready to combine to work the final three innings tonight. And the Tigers offense, while not quite as explosive as the Yankees, did have 11 games of at least 10 runs scored this season (that was tied for eighth in the majors; the Yankees were third with 17).
But I think this is going to come down to Doug Fister. I suspect that Ivan Nova will give up two or three runs in six innings and that the Yankee bullpen will put up zeroes from there. So, if the Tigers get a performance from Fister that rivals the gems he delivered down the stretch (he had a 0.64 ERA in his final eight starts), they should win.
Yet my guess is that it won’t play out that way. Fister blew away my expectations for him this year, but I still don’t see him having the kind of stuff that plays well against the kind of lefty-heavy lineups that the Yankees feature. I think his giving up six runs in 4 2/3 innings back in Game 1 was less a bad performance from him and more the Yankees simply being better than he is.
So, we’ll see how it plays out. I’m picking the Yankees to win 8-3, but maybe Fister can prove me wrong yet again.
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