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2011 Projection Review: Catchers

Oct 18, 2011, 6:10 PM EDT

Minnesota Twins v New York Yankees, Game 3 Getty Images

What follows is a review of some of my 2011 projections for Rotoworld.com. I’m highlighting my preseason top five for each position and them some other notables, starting today with the catchers.

Catchers

Preseason Top 5

Joe Mauer – Twins – $28 – #1
Projection: .323/.411/.483, 14 HR, 91 R, 82 RBI, 3 SB in 520 AB
2011 stats: .287/.360/.368, 3 HR, 38 R, 30 RBI, 0 SB in 296 AB

It was essentially a lost season for the 2009 AL MVP, but Mauer did hit a solid .314/.393/.416 in 185 second-half at-bats before getting shut down with pneumonia. I’ll project him to hit .310-.320 next year, but the slugging percentage will come down. He has one homer in 396 at-bats at Target Field since the ballpark opened last year.

Buster Posey – Giants – $28 – #2
Projection: .312/.388/.507, 21 HR, 76 R, 85 RBI, 2 SB in 507 AB
2011 stats: .284/.368/.389, 4 HR, 17 R, 21 RBI, 3 SB in 162 AB

Victor Martinez – Tigers – $24 – #3
Projection: .297/.367/.463, 19 HR, 73 R, 95 RBI, 0 SB in 559 AB
2011 stats: .330/.380/.470, 12 HR, 76 R, 103 RBI, 1 SB in 540 AB

Martinez’s 2011 was even more of an outlier than his 2006. That season, he finished with a .316 average and 16 homers. In his other five full seasons, he has never hit better than .305 or finished with fewer than 20 homers.

Carlos Santana – Indians – $20 – #4
Projection: .271/.384/.475, 20 HR, 77 R, 76 RBI, 4 SB in 480 AB
2011 stats: .239/.351/.457, 27 HR, 84 R, 79 RBI, 5 SB in 552 AB

I still believe that Santana is going to hit for decent averages in the majors, but even at .240, he was one of the game’s best offensive catchers this season.

Brian McCann – Braves – $21 – #5
Projection: .274/.352/.472, 21 HR, 62 R, 80 RBI, 3 SB in 468 AB
2011 stats: .270/.351/.466, 24 HR, 51 R, 71 RBI, 3 SB in 466 AB

It’s pretty incredible that McCann hit third and fourth and still got driven in just 27 times all year. After McCann came off the DL in mid-August, he had a 21-game stretch in which the only runs he scored came on his five homers. 21 games!

Others

J.P. Arencibia – Blue Jays – $5 – #27
Projection: .228/.280/.417, 15 HR, 41 R, 47 RBI, 0 SB in 355 AB
2011 stats: .219/.282/.438, 23 HR, 47 R, 78 RBI, 1 SB in 443 AB

Arencibia proved to be quite a bit more valuable in fantasy leagues than expected, but my slash line was awfully close to reality. As a subpar defensive catcher with a .275 OBP after 478 major league at-bats, his future as a regular should be in serious doubt.

Alex Avila – Tigers – $5 – #23
Projection: .257/.338/.405, 11 HR, 41 R, 43 RBI, 2 SB in 358 AB
2011 stats: .295/.389/.506, 19 HR, 63 R, 82 RBI, 3 SB in 464 AB

2011′s breakout catcher. I projected Avila to add about 90 points of OPS from his disappointing .228/.316/.340 season in 2010, but I never believed he had this kind of upside.

Chris Iannetta – Rockies – $11 – #12
Projection: .243/.358/.444, 17 HR, 52 R, 61 RBI, 1 SB in 374 AB
2011 stats: .238/.370/.414, 14 HR, 51 R, 55 RBI, 6 SB in 345 AB

I think the Rockies would be foolish to move on from Iannetta. I’d really like to see what he could do if he weren’t stuck hitting ahead of the pitcher 90 percent of the time.

Russell Martin – Yankees – $9 – #13
Projection: .266/.360/.376, 9 HR, 53 R, 46 RBI, 7 SB in 391 AB
2011 stats: .237/.324/.408, 18 HR, 57 R, 65 RBI, 8 SB in 417 AB

Miguel Montero – Diamondbacks – $13 – #11
Projection: .260/.329/.443, 17 HR, 54 R, 62 RBI, 1 SB in 431 AB
2011 stats: .282/.351/.469, 18 HR, 65 R, 86 RBI, 1 SB in 493 AB

Maybe Iannetta could even put together a season something like Montero just did. Consider that Montero is a lifetime .256 hitter with 35 RBI in 91 games hitting eighth. He’s hit .274 with 211 RBI in 422 games the rest of the time.

Mike Napoli – Rangers – $12 – #10
Projection: .251/.338/.475, 20 HR, 54 R, 57 RBI, 3 SB in 362 AB
2011 stats: .320/.414/.631, 30 HR, 72 R, 75 RBI, 4 SB in 369 AB

Matt Wieters – Orioles – $13 – #8
Projection: .272/.348/.449, 18 HR, 56 R, 62 RBI, 1 SB in 448 AB
2011 stats: .262/.328/.450, 22 HR, 72 R, 68 RBI, 1 SB in 500 AB

Wieters didn’t reach superstardom in year No. 3, but considering that he’s developed into a Gold Glove-caliber catcher, he does appear on his way to becoming one of the AL’s better players. A .280-25 HR season is in reach for 2012. He fanned a modest 84 times in 500 at-bats this season, so there’s no reason he can’t hit for a significantly better average soon.

  1. texasdawg - Oct 18, 2011 at 6:23 PM

    In 2011, Martinez was a +2.9 fWAR in 595 PAs. Napoli was a +5.6 in 432.

    Napoli was 29. Martinez was 32.

    Napoli isn’t going to put up a .444 wOBA season again, but I’ll take him to at least beat out Martinez again in 2012.

  2. halladaysbiceps - Oct 18, 2011 at 6:41 PM

    Matt, just out of curiosity, did you do a projection for Carlos Ruiz? If so, what did you find out, projection wise?

    • Matthew Pouliot - Oct 18, 2011 at 7:02 PM

      Projected Ruiz: .261/.356/.393, 8 HR, 42 R, 45 RBI, 2 SB in 364 AB
      Actual Ruiz…..: .283/.371/.383, 6 HR, 49 R, 40 RBI, 1 SB in 410 AB

      I thought 2010 was a career year and that his average would return to it’s previous level. The average didn’t, but his power fell well off.

      • halladaysbiceps - Oct 18, 2011 at 7:17 PM

        Thanks, Matt. I appreciate it. Seems you were spot on.

  3. uyf1950 - Oct 18, 2011 at 6:49 PM

    I’m not sure how you can compare Victor Martinez 2011 numbers as a catcher and rate him 3rd. He only was behind the plate for 26 games. The majority of 2011 he was a DH. His numbers behind the plate in 2011: .287 / .333 / .330 0 HR’s, 11 R’s, 11 RBI’s.

    • Matthew Pouliot - Oct 18, 2011 at 6:58 PM

      3rd is where I had him ranked among catchers (for fantasy purposes) entering the season.

  4. missouriman4ever - Oct 18, 2011 at 10:39 PM

    No Yadier Molina? Obviously the best defensive catcher in baseball, and any cardinal fan knows how clutch he is at the plate. He hits 6th for a reason guys.

  5. Mark - Oct 18, 2011 at 11:26 PM

    And people complained when I called out Arencibia in the other thread. That catching article HBT linked earlier today had him at -0.2 fWAR when you account for him blocking balls in the dirt. If the Rockies don’t want Iannetta I’d be happy to have him on the Jays.

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