Comments on: Your Official HardballTalk World Series Preview

By: txnative61

txnative61 — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 07:12:45 +0000

I like to just watch and see how the games unfold, but this seems to be an evenhanded analysis. With all that firepower, and pens, and management of pens, being critical for both teams, can’t see how anyone can predict how the matchups will go. One mistake could become blowouts, or turn on one HR. Lean to Rangers for wishful thinking and Nolan Ryan, but will be fun to watch.

By: buddaley

buddaley — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 03:36:57 +0000

I am not talking about lineup construction. I am talking about mixing offensive and defensive comparisons. When you say that Yadier Molina and Mike Napoli are even as catchers, it is not a true statement. Molina is probably far superior as a catcher, and so the Cardinals have an advantage defensively behind the plate. Go position by position, and perhaps taking into account positional adjustments for the relative importance of each position on the defensive spectrum, and you might be able to say one team is the better defensive squad.

Then you need to look at the overall lineups and ask whose lineup is better. Which lineup gets on base more or hits for more power or has a better running game et al. It doesn’t matter which position each one plays. When you look at the 8 or 9 men who will bat (and perhaps the reserves as well), which offense looks stronger? I am not concerned with the batting order or with which position each batter plays.

(Of course, it can get far more complex. For example, does one pitching staff match up well or poorly against a particular kind of offense?)

By: jimeejohnson

jimeejohnson — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 23:46:21 +0000

Cards won it all in 2006. Texas has never won a championship, but are in the World Series for the second year in a row. If Nelson Cruz keeps hitting the way he did against Detroit, Texas wins it all!

By: paperlions

paperlions — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 22:22:32 +0000

I know…that is facted up, isn’t it. I hate when facts get in the way of my unsubstatiated notions.

By: foreverchipper10

foreverchipper10 — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 22:09:09 +0000

I am with Nolan on this one. I think the Rangers take it in 6. That being said, I have this pit in my stomach telilng me TLR is going to pull it off again. Somehow….

By: artisan3m

artisan3m — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 21:19:59 +0000

It ought to be a great series. I agree that the teams are evenly matched but I give the nod to the Rangers. They have better outfield defense with much better arms, a tighter infield defensively, and a more potent lineup. The question mark for Texas is pitching ~ Wilson, Lewis, Holland, and Harrison have had moments of brilliance ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ occasionally! I think it will take three of the four having commanding games to keep the pen from being overworked. My guess (and we are all guessing here) is the Rangers in six.

By: tridecagon

tridecagon — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 21:08:17 +0000

Rangers win the Series? Yeah, maybe.

Rangers go into St. Louis and win a Game 7, against this team, who’s been left for dead and written off multiple times this season, in what could be Albert Pujols’ last game as a Cardinal? I’d be very surprised.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 20:36:50 +0000

As soon as umpires stop arguing calls when they know they were wrong, I’ll expect coaches and players to stop arguing calls they know were right.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 20:33:29 +0000

I hate to point this out…but if they win, it will be because they have good players that are playing great baseball. LaRussa has managed 35 yrs and not won at the end of 32 of them….and he has had a lot of great players on every team he’s managed….never had to rebuild, never had to deal with a small pay roll….ever.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 20:21:15 +0000

You are probably right….but most people also picked the Phillies in 3 and Brewers in 5.

By: cur68

cur68 — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 18:08:25 +0000

Rangers in 7. The damn squirrel makes another appearance. Tries to touch Beltre’s head and he beats it to death live on TV.

By: cur68

cur68 — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 18:03:53 +0000

The critical thing for me, is did an independent set of baseball knowledgeable eyes look over those teams and say “those guys are pretty good”? In one case, yes; Arizona was touted by Craig, who saw them at practice and felt they were on a mission. He let his wild and crazy side get in the way and picked the Cubs to take the NL Central, but I think if he goes over his ‘scouting’ he’ll notice that none of the teams he saw in spring training had the same ‘feel’ as the D-Backs.

He’ll probably 2nd guess and ‘pshaw’ what I’ve wrote here, but the D-backs were the only team he spoke about like that. In healthcare those ‘feelings’ are meaningful, especially with complex patients who are unable to communicate. I’m going to pay attention to who he talks about like that next season….I might win a lot of money out of it.

By: cshearing

cshearing — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 17:40:19 +0000

Alex K: He said calls “they already know are right”, not ones that were incorrect. I agree. I see athletes arguing when they are obviously wrong all the time, and it is always frustrating and silly.

By: marinersnate

marinersnate — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 17:15:27 +0000

Rangers in 6.

By: natstowngreg

natstowngreg — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 17:13:29 +0000

This season, the Nats reached the point of “hey, someone will pick them for the playoffs next season, just to be different.” So they will get a few votes for the playoffs come late March, whether they’re ready to contend or not. I expect the Jays (despite their division) and Indians to get similar love.

By: Alex K

Alex K — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:50:10 +0000

So now it is the players and manager’s fault when a call in made incorrectly?

By: The Baseball Idiot

The Baseball Idiot — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:43:10 +0000

My wish is that the players, managers and coaches (who are all supposed to know the rules) don’t act like a bunch of complete asses by arguing calls that they already know are right and won’t get overturned, just because they know it incites the crowd and gets everyone blaming the umpires.

But hey, it does keep them players from looking bad when they can get the crowd to blame the umpires for their own failures.

By: Jonny 5

Jonny 5 — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:33:26 +0000

The Cards in 7.

Hey, they beat the Phillies….

By: Nick C

Nick C — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:16:14 +0000

I am taking into account both offense and defense in my personal positional comparisons. Since most studies have shown that lineup construction is largely irrelevent to scoring, I don’t think it is really necessary to compare lineups slot by slot.

By: Kyle

Kyle — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:13:23 +0000

Hear, hear.

By: Nick C

Nick C — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:13:03 +0000

tomemos – Its about True Talent Level. Also, please note Furcal’s stats with the Cards:

.255/.316/.418/.735 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=furcara02&t=b&year=2011&team=STL&per162=0)

versus Andrus 2011:

.279/.347/.361/.708 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=andruel01&year=2011&t=b)

Such a shame…..

By: Kyle

Kyle — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:12:29 +0000

Hahaha, that’s so awesome.

By: buddaley

buddaley — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:07:41 +0000

A pet peeve I trot out every year. I don’t think it logical to compare a team by matching positions unless you are talking strictly about defense. For example, at 2B, Kinsler hits lead off. If Punto plays 2B for the Cards, he will probably bat 8th in St. Louis. So the comparison is strictly about who plays a better 2B. It is possible that by doing that, you give the advantage to St. Louis at 2B. If you want to compare Kinsler’s offense to anyone, do it to the lead off hitter for the Cardinals, not to Punto.

If you are going to compare teams, you need to compare the defense by position and the offense by the lineups. Who has the better top, middle and end of the lineups, regardless of what position they play. If Cruz continues to bat 7th, who does so for the Cardinals, and how does he compare offensively? If Cruz is the Rangers right fielder, does he play the position better than Berkman does?

By: Nick C

Nick C — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:06:40 +0000

And here is the data to back up my assertion that Napoli and Molina are fairly even:

http://holzfeder.com/gallery/THT/2011warrankings.csv

This is from this article that Craig blogged about re: catcher’s blocking balls:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-one-bites-the-dust/

So taking offense and defense into account Molina and Napoli are just about dead even at lease by this (comprehensive IMO) measure.

By: tomemos

tomemos — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 15:46:34 +0000

“…Furcal has far more pop in his bat and has a longer track record of production notwithstanding this year which has been injury plagued.”

Well, it’s a shame that the Cardinals have to play with the Furcal of 2011 rather than the Furcall of 2005 or whatever.

By: Nick C

Nick C — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 15:02:40 +0000

I call catcher even because Molina is a far superior defender who can/will completely shut down any type of running game. That takes away a significant part of both Kinsler and Andrus’ offensive games.

SS is even because Furcal is simply a better hitter over his career than Andrus. Andrus is the better defender but Furcal has far more pop in his bat and has a longer track record of production notwithstanding this year which has been injury plagued.

By: phukyouk

phukyouk — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 14:57:39 +0000

I wont lie… If the Phils had actually Won the AL east i would have be SHOCKED! there is no way that anyone actually picked that, right?

By: trigzter

trigzter — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 14:34:09 +0000

not sure how you can call the catchers and shortstops even. offensively, its not even close, texas takes both positions

By: Nick C

Nick C — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 14:24:46 +0000

And lest anyone forget, Steve Berthiaume picked the ASTROS to win the NL Central.

Worst. Prediction. Ever.

By: Francisco (FC)

Francisco (FC) — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 14:23:34 +0000

My wish is that we don’t see a single post or article about some botched or bad call by an umpire affecting a critical phase of the game. The anonymous umpire is the best umpire.