Comments on: World Series Game 5 lineups: Rangers vs. Cardinals

By: all4tookie

all4tookie — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 23:42:15 +0000

Player A vs. LHP: .210/.281/.243
Player B vs. LHP: .211/.269/.337

One of these players has one homerun against LHP in his career. The other is Adam Wainwright, who has 2, in roughly 1/4th of the PAs.

By: all4tookie

all4tookie — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 23:32:51 +0000

Sure, I’ll say sure a hundred times in a single post, surely.

By: all4tookie

all4tookie — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 23:29:59 +0000

I don’t think we should be making any judgments about either player based on the 14 PA sample you cite for Jay or the 10 sample cited for Schumaker in the NLDS. Sure, Skip’s OPS was 1.400, but that came almost entirely against RHP (he had one single against Cliff Lee).

Sure, anything could work out, and I hope it does, but Skip is particularly bad against LHP and Wilson is particularly effective against LHB (2.61 FIP vs. LHB, 3.40 vs. RHB). I still think it better to take the only sure thing (Jay’s defense) over what is generously at best a wash offensively.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 23:00:22 +0000

Again, Jay is hitting .000 in 14 plate appearances, and yes he is the better defensive option. Schumaker is still a pretty darn good outfielder, has had a reasonable time to get healthy, and posted a 1.400 OPS in the divisional series, the best among all Cards. So replacing the slumping Jay, who hasn’t been able to get the ball out of the infield, with Schumaker, who one has to believe is healthy, and was on fire just recently, is certainly not a crazy choice.

Gotta believe that Wilson who comes over the top, with fastball and change-up choices, rather than a good breaking ball, was judged to be the type of lefty that he might be effective against.

Will it work. Who knows? But under the circumstances I view it more of a wash, and it gets Schumaker some ABs, that may come in handy later.

By: all4tookie

all4tookie — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 22:32:54 +0000

Schumaker is also coming off of a couple nagging injuries and has just 1 PA since October 7th (in which he struck out and looked completely foolish).

By: all4tookie

all4tookie — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 22:10:56 +0000

“They are similarly above average OFs” is not true – Jay is by any metric (including eye test) a far superior center fielder than Schumaker, even given his weaker arm. Unless Jay is injured and we don’t know about it, starting Skip vs. a LHP is a terrible idea. Skip has 9 XBH vs. LHP in 413 career PAs. His overall line is .210/.281/.243.

Jay, on the other hand, has shown no meaningful split in his brief career in the majors or minors. I certainly think that Skip’s impotence in 413 career PAs vs. LHP is much more predictive than the bad postseason Jay has had thus far, making Jay the logical start especially considering his plus defense.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 22:08:34 +0000

Theriot could DH, but again, that would put Craig in CF, and with Carpenter on the mound it is usually a good move to go defense.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 22:04:54 +0000

Well argued. I withdraw my characterization of it as a clear mistake.

Craig would be better, though.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 22:03:16 +0000

Yeah, you are correct, I haven’t been able to access WS rosters, been in the deep mountains. Thanks, for the correction, and theoretically Craig could start in CF, but that would be risky and St. Louis would have to choose another DH, if Berkman were in RF, so the Schumaker decision makes a lot of sense. Hope it works.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 21:59:52 +0000

Thanks my bad, I’ve been in the mountains for the past few days, and haven’t been able to access the WS rosters. Thanks for the correction.

By: osbornesmith

osbornesmith — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 21:59:35 +0000

I don’t think Tyler Greene is even on the WS roster, is he? [My mistake if I'm wrong.] Even though I’m not a big TLR fan, I really don’t see any other option for him if he wants to sit Jay.

By: all4tookie

all4tookie — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 21:57:34 +0000

Tyler Greene has only played 17 innings in the OF this year (0 at CF) and isn’t on the WS roster.

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 21:56:32 +0000

Schumaker is replacing Jay, who is also left-handed, and is hitting .000 so far in 14 ABs for St. Louis, in the WS. They are similarly above average OFs. One could question the wisdom of playing Schumaker, since he hasn’t played the OF, and particularly CF, much lately, but the outfield is his natural position. Punto is at 2nd, a switch-hitter, and if the Rangers have to go to the pen early, they are predominately, right-handed. Washington cannot have a long leash on Wilson, so there is a good chance he won’t be in very long. Who exactly, would you like to see TLR start in CF? Tyler Greene is an option, but he is very (Green) in the OF. Craig could move there, but again the defense would suffer. With Carpenter on the mound, St. Louis is choosing defense in this one, with Jay probably entering as a defensive replacement for Holliday in the late innings if St. Louis leads.

Once again, Tony has thought through all the scenarios, and once again, his choice is made on sound reasoning. Calling Schumaker’s choice tonight a “clear mistake”, is in fact a “clear mistake.”

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 21:36:25 +0000

Batting order doesn’t really matter that much. Having Schumaker in there against a lefty is a clear mistake, though.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 21:35:29 +0000

Mike Scioscia.

By: miketreedy

miketreedy — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 21:27:23 +0000

Is there any other manager in baseball that would have Young at cleanup and then have Napoli batting 8th?

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 21:15:16 +0000

Was kinda hopin’ for a Tyler Greene start in CF, but with Carp going looks as if TLR is going with defense.