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Next year’s odds: Too soon?

Oct 31, 2011, 12:33 PM EDT

gambling poster

At what point do the Phillies fans stop eating crow over their team’s failure to fulfill the championship expectations of which they were all convinced and move on to that blind, “we’re number 1!” stuff for 2012 that we know will come and love so very much when it does?

Heck, why not now?  Gambling on baseball is the dumbest thing in the history of dumb things, but I guess some people do it because why else would they release odds about it?  Here’s the just-released odds for 2012 from Bodog:

Phillies: 4/1
Yankees: 13/2
Red Sox: 8/1
Rangers: 12/1
Tigers 14/1
Cardinals 14/1

And of course, you have to go with the odds here because baseball always follows a predictable pattern.

  1. WhenMattStairsIsKing - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:38 PM

    Can we see, you know, a few free agent signings and waiver claims before we see this? There’s about 400 moves left to be made on MLB rosters before March.

    • gammagammahey - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:43 PM

      Pre-hot stove offseason filler new. Get into it!

      • WhenMattStairsIsKing - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:45 PM

        I think instead of odds on teams, odds on player destinations would work.

    • gammagammahey - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:43 PM

      Pre-hot stove offseason filler news. Get into it!

    • kopy - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:45 PM

      That’s the whole point though. If you bet on the Cardinals now, and they re-sign Pujols later, you got good odds on your investment. If you bet on the Cardinals before La Russa announced his retirement, you locked in bad odds since the odds against them likely grew after that announcement.

      It’s boring when everybody knows what’s going to happen, but if you can predict the off-season (even though no one can) you can really have some fun.

  2. dmccarrie - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:39 PM

    We’re No. 1! We’re No. 1! We’re No. 1!

  3. halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:44 PM

    “Phillies fans stop eating crow over their team’s failure to fulfill the championship expectations”

    No Phillies fans I know are eating crow. We are still pissed and know they choked.

    As far as releasing odds for the winner of the 2012 of the WS, seems way too early, given that free agency hasn’t started yet. These odds will change many times between now and Feb./March.

    • halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:48 PM

      Also, we don’t eat crow. We eat cheesesteakes and Tast

      • halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:49 PM

        ***Tastykakes.

      • spudchukar - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:10 PM

        I thought cheesesteaks were made of crow.

      • cur68 - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:59 PM

        Celine Dion is made of crow. of the “scare” variety. Seriously, I hear the words “Get off the corn!” every time I see her face…

  4. WhenMattStairsIsKing - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:47 PM

    Alright fine.

    Division winners:
    Phillies
    Cardinals
    Rockies
    Red Sox
    Tigers
    Angels

    Wild cards:
    Rangers
    Braves

    World series:
    Tigers over Braves in 6

    • natstowngreg - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:55 PM

      OK, they’re as valid as any other predictions right now.

      • WhenMattStairsIsKing - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:59 PM

        I love the dislikes. How dare I make such insane picks for 2012 two days into the offseason! What blog post would tempt me to perform such madness?!

      • natstowngreg - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:12 PM

        This looks like fun. Premature, certain-to-be-wrong 2012 predictions:

        AL — Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Rays (who clinch Wild Card before Game 162)
        NL — Phillies, Cardinals, Giants, Nationals (well, what did you expect?)

        WS — Rangers finally win one, in 6 over Giants

    • Ari Collins - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:32 PM

      I wouldn’t peg the Angels as doing any better next year, but, hey, who knows, right?

      Like the Rockies pick.

      • WhenMattStairsIsKing - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:36 PM

        Thanks, Ari.

    • WhenMattStairsIsKing - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:35 PM

      It’s becoming clear that I’m getting dislikes just to be spited. Either that or my picks are unfathomably offensive, in which case I do so thoroughly apologize.

      • thinman61 - Oct 31, 2011 at 3:22 PM

        I think your dislikes are coming from Yankee fans. ;-)

  5. Jonny 5 - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:48 PM

    F*&(% off Craig….. You and your stereotyping of fan bases is pathetic at best!!!

    The Phillies ARE #1 Bee-a-tches!!! # frigging 1!!! WOOT!!! Yeah, that’s how it is…

    Feel free to ignore the obvious irony in my post, and give me hell. Thank You. Thank You much.

    • yankeesfanlen - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:58 PM

      Jeez, Jonny, let a Universe fan get a word in edgewise.

      • Jonny 5 - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:02 PM

        Oh, Hi Len. How’s it going? Besides you know, Philly being #1 and stuff?

      • yankeesfanlen - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:36 PM

        Still re-living our 2011 WS in Princeton. Yanks in 6 again.

    • natstowngreg - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:18 PM

      Channeling Harry S Truman, giving hell. Or, as Truman said, give the truth and you think it’s hell.

      Phillies aren’t #1, and Craig is right.

      • Jonny 5 - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:45 PM

        Yeah, yeah, yeah, Jason Werth. Oh, I went there.

      • natstowngreg - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:59 PM

        That’s OK. I see your Jayson Werth and raise you Nats 10 wins, Phillies 8. Plus Ryan Zimmerman’s walk-off grand slam off Ryan Madson. Probably my favorite moment from about 150 games at RFK/Nats Park over 7 seasons.

        No, I don’t expect the Nats to catch the Phillies next season. Probably not even the Braves. But they’re moving in the right direction — from horrible to bad to average. Hopefully, to above average.

      • Jonny 5 - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:20 PM

        I like the Nats actually. I root for them when they aren’t playing Philly. I expect them to be in the fight for 2nd in the NL east in 2012. Honestly.

  6. thefalcon123 - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:51 PM

    The Phillies offense is in trouble next year. They finished 7th in runs scored in 2011 and no one has gotten any younger. Howard is going to miss part of the year. He and Utley are having a harder time staying healthy and they have shown very clear drops in their number of the past few years. Hunter Pence will likely come down to earth from a .361 BABIP in 2011. Polanco slugged a meager .339 and that’s not likely to improve at age 36.
    They need to get another bat or have a Dom Brown step up, otherwise they might end up in the same boat as the 2003 Dodgers (okay, there offense isn’t going to be THAT bad).

    • halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:11 PM

      Expect Ruben Amaro to make some major moves this offseason. I would not be surprised to see him trade a Victorino to improve the club. I am convinced now they need a few more contact hitters and high OBP guys, along with another power hitter. Victorino is one of the few tradeable pieces they have to improve the club.

      • paperlions - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:24 PM

        Yeah, trading your best position player is a great way to improve the club.

      • halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:31 PM

        The reason the Phillies trade Victorino is to get either younger (multiple players in return) or to improve at a position that they need (3rd base). If X-club can move an experienced 3rd baseman because they have depth at that position but are thin in the outfield, the Phillies can move a guy like Victorino.

        These are the type of moves Amaro needs to consider to improve the ballclub. The only untouchable commodities on the Phillies are the starting pitchers.

      • Ari Collins - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:35 PM

        The point paperlions is making is that there aren’t many players in baseball better than Victorino. It’d be tough to get enough value back. And don’t they kind of need a stud OF? Isn’t that a position of need?

      • halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:41 PM

        Mayberry Jr. can play center, Pence will be in right. The Phillies can pick up a left fielder in FA on the cheap. My concern is improving 3rd base and the bench, while getting a little younger. A guy like Victorino may have enough trade value to achieve it.

      • Jonny 5 - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:09 PM

        No Biceps, just say NO. Victorino is the best player on the Phills as we speak. There is no reason to trade him. You get back people you’ll hate, it makes no sense. Polanco is better than last season tells you (injuries). My largest concerns are SS, 2nd, and 1st base actually. Do they keep Jimmy and give him more years than they want to? Can Utley ever get back to where he was? Can Howard be effective at all next season?

      • halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:37 PM

        Jonny,

        Sometimes difficult decisions have to be made to improve the ballclub as a whole. Do I necessary want to trade Victorino? No. But, this lineup needs to be improved. It’s too hot or cold offensively for my liking. We saw it all year. You have to give up talent to receive talent in return.

        I have started to change my opinion on Rollins return. If we lose him to FA, I’m OK with it. I’ve grown tired of his plate discipline and antics off the field. He should start keeping his mouth shut. He’s a 6 or 7 hole hitter at this point. No leadoff hitter.

        I don’t know if Polanco will ever be right. Probably a bench/part time player at this point. Time to get younger and upgrade 3rd.

        They are stuck with Utley. They can only hope he can return to respectable form. Same thing with Howard. They are stuck with him and he will more than likely contribute a shell of what he is capable of next year. Look to 2013 for Howard to be 100% again.

      • spudchukar - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:58 PM

        Wouldn’t Worley bring somebody?

      • halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 3:04 PM

        Yes, spuds. Worley is a trading chip as well. So is Domonic Brown, along with Victorino.

        I would only part with Worley in a trade if they bring back Oswalt for a couple of more years (which I want greatly). You can never have too much pitching.

        I take my chances any day with 4 quality starters over anything else.

  7. philliesblow - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:53 PM

    What are the odds of the Braves choking away the wild card to an eventual WS winner again?

    What are the odds of the Red Sox upgrading their clubhouse menu?

    What are the odds of CC Sabathia dropping even 10lbs?

    What are the odds of anyone buying any of the new Marlins swag?

    • jwbiii - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:08 PM

      What are the odds of the Red Sox upgrading their clubhouse menu?

      Hotategai and sake?

  8. churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:54 PM

    Feel free to ignore the obvious irony in my post, and give me hell. Thank You. Thank You much.

    Nope, I’m going to thumbs up your post, and applaud you for it because I do the opposite of what Phillies Phans want.

    So there!

    • Jonny 5 - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:58 PM

      Damn You Copo! Damn you and your Yankees and Jets! Damn your Devils too!!! (although, the Devils seem pretty damned already actually… Something to think about), anyway. Damn you!

  9. yankeesfanlen - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:05 PM

    And no one thinks that the Yankees are NOT going to drop a couple of surprises this Year? Cash is back, we’ll have a killer DH in 2012 whether we sign one or not, a lucky pitcher of some renown will discover the price is right, Joe will stop watching TLR tapes, and the expenditure hasn’t kept up with inflation.
    There’s $225M burning a hole in somebody’s pocket.

  10. 18thstreet - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:26 PM

    You can bet on anything. Why NOT this?

    If you think the Rangers are going to sign Sabathia, this is a good time to buy those odds. If you think Pujols is going to the Nationals, that would have to impact your thinking.

    Look, I’ve been saying that Rick Perry would get the GOP nomination for, like, 6 months now. (Well before he was a declared candidate.) For a while there, I looked brilliant. Now, not so much. Stuff changes. Doesn’t mean you can’t make a prediction.

  11. jeffro33 - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:32 PM

    “At what point do the Phillies fans stop eating crow over their team’s failure to fulfill the championship expectations”

    – when perhaps you start eating crow that the Phillies ended your Braves’ season in spectacular fashion. Losing to the eventual WS Champion three straight years after winning it isn’t THAT bad, is it?

    “Gambling on baseball is the dumbest thing in the history of dumb things”

    – but unfortunately, gambling is also directly tied to the popularity of a sport, See, NFL… …and NHL (bc to bet hockey you need to get your head checked)

  12. loungefly74 - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:43 PM

    makes sense…as of today, the phillies have the best team…on paper.

  13. pbannard - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:10 PM

    Ok, year after year we see that the playoffs are a crapshoot – that rarely does one team have much better than maybe a 55% chance in a 5 or 7 game series. That being the case, any odds under 7-1 are a terrible deal. I suppose if you built a team that you were 100% confident would make the playoffs, and were sure would be favored in each round, I could see 6:1 odds, but at 4:1 you’re just lighting money on fire.

    • Ari Collins - Oct 31, 2011 at 4:50 PM

      Seconded. People overestimate how much advantage being a better team gives you. It’s not all that much. And this is one way the bookies make loads of money.

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