Comments on: 2012 Top 111 Free Agents: Nos. 50-1

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 21:36:56 +0000

Thanks for the numbers! It’s definitely helping his batting average a LOT more than I thought (and more than your typical home/road splits, for sure). But it’s hardly helping his power at all: check out the close ISOs.

But yeah, point made.

By: Matthew Pouliot

Matthew Pouliot — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 21:05:00 +0000

Fenway is certainly a tough place to hit homers to right field in, and Ortiz does hit just as many homers on the road as at home. However, he also takes advantage of the Monster and gets singles and doubles there that would be outs in other parks. He’s hit .310/.411/.580 at home the last five years and .258/.358/.493 on the road.

In the last three years, it’s .294/.390/.556 at home, .250/.342/.473 on the road.

For comparison’s sake, the average hitter had an OPS 28 points higher at home this year: .258/.326/.408 to .252/.315/.391.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 20:53:58 +0000

If you’re right about how teams see these players, then I see Beltran and Jackson as possible value signings (relative to the rest of the FA market, anyway). Further down the rankings, Garcia and Ramon Hernandez will probably be good values for whoever grabs them as well.

And for the record, Fenway is likely only helping Ortiz as much as any home park tends to help any hitter. Fenway is actually a really tough place to hit a home run as a left-handed hitter (though it boosts singles and doubles), to the point where Ortiz for a few years in a row led the league every year in road homers.

By: Bill

Bill — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 20:28:01 +0000

I guess I didn’t think reading the first six words of Matthew’s Fielder comment (which explains pretty clearly what is meant by “these guys”) was too much to ask.

Falcon hits all the best ones. None of them were ever as good as Prince is (or not for more than a year or so), so even if he falls off like they did, maybe he’ll remain a useful player. But the winning bidder is not going to be paying for “useful.”

By: paperlions

paperlions — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 19:56:01 +0000

You forgot Ryan Howard

[hehehe]

By: okobojicat

okobojicat — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 19:20:06 +0000

Whoops. That was an idiotic move. Sorry aboutthat.

By: thefalcon123

thefalcon123 — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 17:53:14 +0000

Big, overweight, speedless sluggers rife with “old players”.
Mo Vaughn
Cecil Fielder (no correlation there!)
Kent Hrbek
Adam Dunn
Boog Powell…etc

This isn’t to say it’ll happen to Prince, but there is a pretty clear trend with these types of players. They tend to fall off a cliff pretty quickly.

By: AK47

AK47 — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 17:00:07 +0000

Who are “these guys”?

By: Bill

Bill — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 16:00:08 +0000

The problem with Fielder is assuming he’ll even make it to his mid-thirties. A lot of these guys fall off the table by 30 or 31.

By: lessick

lessick — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 15:04:12 +0000

Mark Ellis rebounding for the Rockies after a horrible start with Oakland is not a surprise. His career first half-second half splits are telling. In the first half of seasons in his career, Ellis is at .249/.317/.364, while in the second half he’s at .281/.343/.427. That’s not small sample size or the result of one or two lopsided seasons–that’s a pattern.

Ellis is a second half player.

By: phukyouk

phukyouk — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 14:56:00 +0000

“23. Hisashi Iwakuma (Age 30, Japan): Iwakuma was posted last winter, drew a $19 million bid from the A’s and then returned to the Rakuten Golden Eagles after failing to reach a contract agreement with Oakland. This time the right-hander is a true free agent and still has every intention of making the jump to MLB. A shoulder injury limited Iwakuma in the first half of last season, but he bounced back strong to finish with a 2.42 ERA and a 90/19 K/BB ratio in 119 innings. In 2010, before Japan introduced a new baseball that depressed offense league-wide, he had a 2.82 ERA and a 153/36 K/BB ratio in 201 innings. The A’s viewed him as being worth about $9 million per season a year ago, and while the shoulder injury could scare a few teams off, it shouldn’t prevent him from getting a multiyear contract this winter. $21 million for three years could get it done.”

By: okobojicat

okobojicat — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 14:25:10 +0000

DJ,

If you mention Darvish, who is not a free agent, I think you have to mention Hisashi Iwakuma. Both the Twins and the A’s bid on him last year, and he ended up not signing. This year he is a free agent. He is more likely to get a longer and better contract than Bedard (with whom I am very much in agreement with you)