Comments on: Brewers looking into contract extensions for Greinke, Marcum

By: foreverchipper10

foreverchipper10 — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 20:56:03 +0000

@ myself

Seems this was sort of pointed out later on. That is what I get for responding before reading all other responses.

By: foreverchipper10

foreverchipper10 — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 20:54:47 +0000

@Charles Gates

If the percentages of “averaging” that each of the top 8 players in the lineup get 12.5% of the production then the assumption that they each get equal opportunity would also be wrong. Those in the top 3 slots traditionally get plenty more at bats per year than those near the bottom of the order.

By: brewcrewfan54

brewcrewfan54 — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 18:23:59 +0000

Braun will get pitched around a little more but as of right now I think Weeks will be in the cleanup spot next season and teams wont love to pitch to him either. I also think the protection thing is a little overrated. The Weeks in the cleanip spot is also debatable but he doesnt like the leadoff spot and Hart has always performed better in the 1 or 2 spot in the lineup.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 18:18:25 +0000

It wasn’t me, but I do remember the research….it pretty much found that the quality of the hitter behind a guy did not affect his offensive production, walk rates, or anything else. As an example, there in no player in the league that will make you decide to go after Pujols instead of pitching carefully to him. Teams didn’t stop IBBing Pujols or giving him better pitches to hit because the guy batting behind him changed, they started pitching to him more because he was struggling with certain pitch types early in the year and teams were all exploiting those faults.

By: drmonkeyarmy

drmonkeyarmy — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 18:04:28 +0000

At some point over the past year, somebody (I thought it was Paperlions but could be wrong) posted evidence and a link that showed that protection is a myth. Dave Schonienfeld over on the Sweetspot blog did at one point as well. If I had the links, I would post them. Sorry I don’t have them handy or can’t provide the exact conversation when this happened. Chances are it was in a discussion about Ryan Howard though. I can go back and try to find it.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:59:21 +0000

drmonkey and paperlions, you will have to forgive me. And please what I’m about to say may sound sarcastic but it truly isn’t meant to be.

Anyway, when drmonkey said and I quote “Well, I’m sure Paper will know this better than I, but I believe long term studies have shown that protection in the line-up is something of a myth”. I was expecting something more then the reply just posted by paperlions “…Team’s may pitch around Braun more, but that just mean’s that who ever is hitting behind him will have a crap load of runners on…”. There is more but I think you get my point.

By: Kyle

Kyle — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:57:32 +0000

Indeed.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:50:16 +0000

Team’s may pitch around Braun more, but that just mean’s that who ever is hitting behind him will have a crap load of runners on. Ryan Braun would help generate more runs if he was walked every AB than if he had his normal great offensive season….that’s just how important runners and not making outs are to scoring.

By: drmonkeyarmy

drmonkeyarmy — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:46:41 +0000

Well, I’m sure Paper will know this better than I, but I believe long term studies have shown that protection in the line-up is something of a myth.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:41:22 +0000

drmonkey… – I’m not purposely trying to as you put it “start a discussion/argument about the concept of protection in a line-up..” I’m only saying that for posters to say that the Brewers don’t necessarily lose that much or the he (Fielder) can be reasonably replaced with a “modest upgrade offensively and defensively at SS..” doesn’t do in my opinion Fielder justice. And ignores one of the other key elements Fielder provides and that is protection in the batting order for Braun. Which a modest upgrade offensively and defensively at SS won’t do. That’s all, no more no less.

By: Charles Gates

Charles Gates — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:17:37 +0000

@paperlions: Conceptually I agree with you. But the percentages jumble everything up. I think the better argument is that the ~$20MM AAV that Fielder could get could be better allocated over the rest of the lineup mitigating the loss of his offensive production without the risk associated with putting all of your eggs in one (large) basket.

By: drmonkeyarmy

drmonkeyarmy — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:16:11 +0000

All Paper is saying is that an average first baseman, while not putting up the numbers of Fielder, will contribute more than people think. Furthermore, we one factors in the likely defensive upgrade, etc….the difference isn’t insurmountable. Also, upgrades elsewhere can help mitigate the absence of Fielder.

By: Charles Gates

Charles Gates — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:14:45 +0000

If you’re wearing a condom in a police lineup, you’re about to get f*cked.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:14:00 +0000

I know they don’t contribute equally to offense, the point was that the non-equity is not as big as people think it is…..indeed, it is even smaller when you consider that Fielder hit 3rd in the lineup and therefore had more chances to contribute than 5 of the 7 other hitters.

The point wasn’t that he isn’t very good, the point was that percentage contributions like those presented aren’t as impressive as they sound….The average 1B probably contributes 15-17% of his teams RBI and HR.

By: drmonkeyarmy

drmonkeyarmy — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:09:21 +0000

Uyf,
Are you purposely trying to start a discussion/argument about the concept of protection in a line-up?

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:06:28 +0000

Would anyone like to address the comment I made about how Fielder being in the line up protects Braun’s AB’s in critical situations. That seems to have been lost in any of the replies.

By: Charles Gates

Charles Gates — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 16:58:09 +0000

paperlions, I get what you’re saying in that the loss of Prince is not insurmountable. But your percentages are wrong. Looking at only the top NL 8 hitters, they each get 12.5% of lineup appearances, but to say that they each contribute equally of offense is not right. Before we can even consider that there are obvious talent/contribution per PA differences, the volume of PA differential between leadoff and #8 is enough to defeat your argument.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 16:53:10 +0000

Also, the Brewers have had formidable lineups for years and did nothing until they upgraded the pitching. They also had one of the worst everyday SSs in the league last year, a modest upgrade offensively and defensively at SS will also offset some of the loss of Fielders bat.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 16:49:39 +0000

It might seem like a big chunk, but there are only 8 legitimate hitters in a NL lineup, meaning that the average player accounts for 12.5% of a teams offense….so the 7.5% difference in HRs and the 4.5% difference in RBI isn’t as big a gap as you might think….add in the fact than any non-Dunn 1B they acquire will be a big improvement on the bases and in the field, and the loss of Fielder may not be as dramatic as people think it will be.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 16:37:32 +0000

I didn’t say they couldn’t. Only that unless he’s convinced they can contend without Fielder would an extension be in the cards for him “based on his earlier comments”.

…and your obviously right Fielder wasn’t the only one to drive in runs on the Brewers but he did account for about 17% and just over 20% of the HR’s.
That’s a big chunk to replace. Plus his presence in the line up forces pitchers to pitch to Braun which they might not have to do in critical situations without Fielder there.

By: brewcrewfan54

brewcrewfan54 — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 16:17:39 +0000

So why can’t the Brewers contend? Yeah they’ll miss Fielder but he wasn’t the only guy on the team driving in runs.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 16:07:28 +0000

Not sure why either one would want to sign an extension. In Greinke’s case he stated before the trade to the Brewers from the Royals he wanted to play for a “winner”. Unless he’s confident that the Brewers can compete for a division title consistently without Fielder or a comparable player I would think he would want to hit FA.