Nov 29, 2011, 7:00 PM EDT
Tangotiger published the results of his annual Forecaster’s Challenge on Tuesday, and my Rotoworld projections put together a pretty nice showing versus several other experts and projections systems.
There were 22 entries in the challenge, including the likes of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Bloomberg Sports and the Fangraphs community projections. Also included was a consensus ranking using all of the systems put together. The projections were judged in four different competitions, and I finished first, second and fourth in three of those. I was somewhere in the middle of the pack in the other. It was in the head-to-head contest that I thrived; put in a two-person league with one of the 21 other systems, I won 41 out of 42 runs.
Alas, when Tango combined all of the four contests into one score, I finished second to the consensus model. As it turned out, the average of all of the expert systems was better than any of the individual systems this year.
Now back to working on those 2012 projections. Anyone with an idea on how many homers Bobby Parnell will allow should drop my a line.
(If you want to see more, I reviewed a bunch of my projections in this space last month.)
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 0
- Jose Reyes is on track to be activated Friday 6
- Dustin Pedroia given cortisone injection for sore left wrist, aiming to return Wednesday 1
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists 213
- John Farrell to get fined for being critical of instant replay 52
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists (213)
- The Red Sox are still steamed that a PED guy played against them in the playoffs last year (129)
- Doug Glanville’s story about being racially profiled at his own home (124)
- We don’t need to celebrate Barry Bonds, but we should avoid whitewashing baseball history (122)
- Must-Click Link: Yasiel Puig’s harrowing journey to the United States (95)