Nov 29, 2011, 7:00 PM EST
Tangotiger published the results of his annual Forecaster’s Challenge on Tuesday, and my Rotoworld projections put together a pretty nice showing versus several other experts and projections systems.
There were 22 entries in the challenge, including the likes of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Bloomberg Sports and the Fangraphs community projections. Also included was a consensus ranking using all of the systems put together. The projections were judged in four different competitions, and I finished first, second and fourth in three of those. I was somewhere in the middle of the pack in the other. It was in the head-to-head contest that I thrived; put in a two-person league with one of the 21 other systems, I won 41 out of 42 runs.
Alas, when Tango combined all of the four contests into one score, I finished second to the consensus model. As it turned out, the average of all of the expert systems was better than any of the individual systems this year.
Now back to working on those 2012 projections. Anyone with an idea on how many homers Bobby Parnell will allow should drop my a line.
(If you want to see more, I reviewed a bunch of my projections in this space last month.)
- Yasmany Tomas signs a six-year, $68.5 million deal with the Diamondbacks 86
- No, the Red Sox signing Pablo and Hanley is not proof that baseball needs a salary cap 162
- Red Sox announce four-year, $88 million deal with Hanley Ramirez, DFA Juan Francisco 35
- The Cubs have offered Jon Lester “north of $135 million” 68
- Pablo Sandoval’s deal: five years, $98 million plus an option 43
- Kyle Seager, Mariners close to $100 million extension 26
- The 2015 Hall of Fame ballot is out — Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez are new on the ballot 286
- So what would the Red Sox look like with Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval? 49
- The 2015 Hall of Fame ballot is out — Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez are new on the ballot (286)
- No, the Red Sox signing Pablo and Hanley is not proof that baseball needs a salary cap (162)
- More Hall of Fame ballots like Adam Rubin’s please (138)
- Report: Pablo Sandoval chose the Red Sox over the Giants because he felt disrespected (136)
- UPDATE: The Pablo Sandoval-Red Sox deal is done, pending a physical (133)