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A strong showing in the Forecaster’s Challenge

Nov 29, 2011, 7:00 PM EST

rotoworld

Tangotiger published the results of his annual Forecaster’s Challenge on Tuesday, and my Rotoworld projections put together a pretty nice showing versus several other experts and projections systems.

There were 22 entries in the challenge, including the likes of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Bloomberg Sports and the Fangraphs community projections. Also included was a consensus ranking using all of the systems put together. The projections were judged in four different competitions, and I finished first, second and fourth in three of those. I was somewhere in the middle of the pack in the other. It was in the head-to-head contest that I thrived; put in a two-person league with one of the 21 other systems, I won 41 out of 42 runs.

Alas, when Tango combined all of the four contests into one score, I finished second to the consensus model. As it turned out, the average of all of the expert systems was better than any of the individual systems this year.

Now back to working on those 2012 projections. Anyone with an idea on how many homers Bobby Parnell will allow should drop my a line.

(If you want to see more, I reviewed a bunch of my projections in this space last month.)

  1. APBA Guy - Nov 29, 2011 at 7:53 PM

    Instant credibility for the 2012 projections. Congrats.

  2. mianfr - Nov 29, 2011 at 9:20 PM

    You really seemed spot on when you were going through your reviews, but wow. That’s really impressive.

    Especially since they have their models and whatnot, and you’re basically using your own personal knowledge and expectations, as far as I can tell.

    Good work, sir.

  3. docktorellis - Nov 29, 2011 at 11:08 PM

    If Parnell remains in NYC, the dimensions of that park will be slightly smaller, so I’d add 2 HR to his total last year in 60 innings. If he’s traded to another team, he’ll likely pitch in a few save opportunities, and, as a trade target, will likely be used for a 8-10 inning uptick in usage, so I’d add another HR there. So I’ll go ahead and predict 7 HR allowed.

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