Nov 29, 2011, 7:00 PM EDT
Tangotiger published the results of his annual Forecaster’s Challenge on Tuesday, and my Rotoworld projections put together a pretty nice showing versus several other experts and projections systems.
There were 22 entries in the challenge, including the likes of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Bloomberg Sports and the Fangraphs community projections. Also included was a consensus ranking using all of the systems put together. The projections were judged in four different competitions, and I finished first, second and fourth in three of those. I was somewhere in the middle of the pack in the other. It was in the head-to-head contest that I thrived; put in a two-person league with one of the 21 other systems, I won 41 out of 42 runs.
Alas, when Tango combined all of the four contests into one score, I finished second to the consensus model. As it turned out, the average of all of the expert systems was better than any of the individual systems this year.
Now back to working on those 2012 projections. Anyone with an idea on how many homers Bobby Parnell will allow should drop my a line.
(If you want to see more, I reviewed a bunch of my projections in this space last month.)
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 45
- The Troy Tulowitzki trade might be the strangest deadline deal ever 37
- Report: Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki to Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and prospects 88
- Alex Rodriguez celebrates 40th birthday with a home run 17
- Mets acquire Tyler Clippard from the Athletics 21
- Angels acquire Shane Victorino from Red Sox 25
- Happy 40th Birthday, A-Rod! 44
- Craig Biggio, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez inducted into the Hall of Fame 41
- The MLBPA is considering withholding cooperation with ESPN, Fox over Colin Cowherd’s comments (157)
- The Cubs are in discussions with the Phillies on Cole Hamels (146)
- MLBPAA announces “Heart and Hustle” award, given mostly to Americans and white guys (131)
- Colin Cowherd wonders how baseball can be considered “complicated” if Dominicans can understand it (129)
- Major League Baseball rips Colin Cowherd in an official statement (123)