Nov 29, 2011, 7:00 PM EDT
Tangotiger published the results of his annual Forecaster’s Challenge on Tuesday, and my Rotoworld projections put together a pretty nice showing versus several other experts and projections systems.
There were 22 entries in the challenge, including the likes of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Bloomberg Sports and the Fangraphs community projections. Also included was a consensus ranking using all of the systems put together. The projections were judged in four different competitions, and I finished first, second and fourth in three of those. I was somewhere in the middle of the pack in the other. It was in the head-to-head contest that I thrived; put in a two-person league with one of the 21 other systems, I won 41 out of 42 runs.
Alas, when Tango combined all of the four contests into one score, I finished second to the consensus model. As it turned out, the average of all of the expert systems was better than any of the individual systems this year.
Now back to working on those 2012 projections. Anyone with an idea on how many homers Bobby Parnell will allow should drop my a line.
(If you want to see more, I reviewed a bunch of my projections in this space last month.)
- Bryce Harper leads in the first round of National League All-Star voting 26
- Buster Olney: The Marlins should hire A-Rod to be their next manager 43
- Breaking down the Braves-Dodgers trade 16
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 34
- So that Juan Uribe trade to the Braves is back on … 11
- Ruben Amaro apologizes for comments about fans, admits he may have been late on rebuild 24
- Jonathan Lucroy expected to rejoin the Brewers on Monday 0
- More drama in Miami: Marlins demote third base coach Brett Butler after “confusion” over signs 35
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (133)
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights (96)
- Ichiro Suzuki passes Babe Ruth on the all-time hits list (76)
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights (71)
- Ruben Amaro dismisses fans who “bitch and complain” about the Phillies’ moves (71)