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Hall of Fame voting expert: Barry Larkin makes it this year; no one else does

Dec 2, 2011, 5:31 PM EDT

Barry Larkin

For 30 years a man named Bill Deane has been predicting the Hall of Fame vote. He has a nearly 80% success rate in getting the votes right, so that’s pretty good.  His prediction this year: Barry Larkin is the only inductee.

Hard to argue with that. Larkin was close last year and a jump from the 62.1% he received to the 75% he needs is quite doable in an otherwise undistinguished field. None of the new guys are likely to get a ton of support and none of the non-Larkin holdovers are likely to gain nearly enough to make it.

As I noted yesterday, there are several people on the ballot who should go in.  But given that won’t happen, it’ll be nice to see the very-deserving Barry Larkin make it.

  1. WhenMattStairsIsKing - Dec 2, 2011 at 5:34 PM

    Mr. Deane, please tell me Santo makes it too. Larkin and Santo both deserve it very much.

  2. sjs1959 - Dec 2, 2011 at 5:41 PM

    We’ll know Monday about Santo; that’s when the Vets Committee announces their results.

    • WhenMattStairsIsKing - Dec 2, 2011 at 5:45 PM

      Awesome, thank you!

  3. bozosforall - Dec 2, 2011 at 6:20 PM

    Santo is nothing more than a HOVG player.

  4. Kyle - Dec 2, 2011 at 6:23 PM

    Depressing. Correct, but depressing.

  5. adenzeno - Dec 2, 2011 at 9:59 PM

    TIM RAINES please!!!! OBP, scored runs, good D……

    • Tribe&Browns&Cavs - Dec 3, 2011 at 9:44 AM

      Did you just make a HOF argument using the word “good”?

  6. bigleagues - Dec 2, 2011 at 10:45 PM

    Barry Larkin should have been in last year with Alomar.

  7. randygnyc - Dec 3, 2011 at 12:44 AM

    I posted yesterday that I thought this year was without HOF quality, and that maybe no one gets in. Like my dad used to say, “if they’re saying that a case can be made”, then they probably don’t belong.

    • oasiserfede - Dec 3, 2011 at 8:20 AM

      That is utter nonsense. For slam dunks like Bagwell and Raines (among others) not to make it, the voters would have to be incompentent beyond belief……..oh wait

  8. Charles Gates - Dec 3, 2011 at 8:28 AM

    Whatever. Why would I trust the guy that wrote Moneyball? What have the As won lately?

    • JBerardi - Dec 3, 2011 at 6:18 PM

      Pssst… guys…. this is what’s known as “sarcasm”.

  9. Paul White - Dec 3, 2011 at 8:35 AM

    I’ll be glad when Larkin is elected, not only because he is very deserving but because it will also remove the last possible reason to keep Alan Trammell out. You know, since they provided essentially the exact same value as baseball players.

  10. crisisjunky - Dec 3, 2011 at 10:22 AM

    Ther are probably more than a few people who, (in the name of reciprocity)
    would relish posthumous awards on a few of our venerable BBWAA voters
    this year.

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