Comments on: Report: Yu Darvish likely to be posted after Winter Meetings

By: realgone2

realgone2 — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 19:14:23 +0000

I don’t see all the hype with this guy. The record for Japanese pitchers in the big aint too great.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 14:59:43 +0000

They are inherently untrustworthy because of chemical information storage process….every time you are “remembering” something, you don’t recall things how they happened….information isn’t stored in one big piece, but in lots of little ones (like a badly fragmented hard drive). Your brain essentially re-creates the event, filling in gaps where the information no longer exists (things you have forgotten), and creating information that may have never existed….the problem is that you can’t distinguish the 3 types of information (recalled, replaced, fabricated) that are instantly combined into one narrative. In addition, people have an inherent bias in how they interpret and re-create these narratives, usually to paint themselves in a better light….so….yeah….brains are untrustworthy.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 13:18:42 +0000

Chris, what happens is as long as the Major League team bargains in “good faith” if the 2 parties do not come to an agreement the team gets it’s posting fee back and the player goes back to Japan.

If the team that won the original bid does NOT bargain in good faith with the player MLB can award the bid to the next highest bidder providing the Japanese Club accepts the 2nd teams bid. Then it would be up to that team to negotiate a contract with the player.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 13:14:14 +0000

Yes, that’s exactly what it means. The As failed to reach agreement with a Japanese pitcher last year, and he had to stay in Japan, though most think it was a good-faith negotation.

By: Chris K

Chris K — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 04:11:25 +0000

Does that mean a team could win the bid, negotiate in questionable fate, then block Yu from entering MLB by not coming to terms? Does this make sense?

By: JBerardi

JBerardi — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 03:08:52 +0000

What, you think brains are untrustworthy?

By: JBerardi

JBerardi — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 02:09:30 +0000

“I doubt that the Yankees and the Red Sox will bid based on their past experience with Japanese pitchers.”

Do you think the Yankees past experience with Joba Chamberlin or Andrew Brackman will keep them from bidding on American pitchers?

By: proudlycanadian

proudlycanadian — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 01:00:33 +0000

Was “brain trust” an oxymoron?

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 23:55:12 +0000

Obviously not a Red Sox fan. But if they were to sign Darvish and he I’ll be kind and say he didn’t live up to expectations. I think the fans would run the Sox brain trust out of town on a rail.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 23:30:14 +0000

I still doubt Boston can fit him in their budget, but the fact that they hired Valentine has made it more likely, in my mind. He’s a big fan of Darvish’s, and so might push for him. What’s more, they may have hired him partly BECAUSE he knows NPB so well. And, of course, Boston MAY be looking to make a splash, though that’s pure conjecture.

Again, still unlikely in my mind, but probably less unlikely now.

By: Ben

Ben — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 23:16:00 +0000

There’s another difference in that when you botch a high school draft pick, you’re out 4 million bucks, plus the opportunity cost of the draft pick. You botch a signing like this and you’re out 100 million. I think that’s what gives teams pause.

I was pretty down on Darvish before, but the more I see of him the more I think he probably can succeed in the MLB. Hope he can.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 22:50:55 +0000

Of course, the high schoolers have faced a lower level of talent, and really as different a game (fewer breaking balls and far fewer changeups).

I think the point is that no one should be (and probably no one is) allowing some Japanese players’ failures to judge the entire talent pipeline. Especially when no pitcher as good as Darvish has ever come over.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 22:47:42 +0000

Thanks!

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 22:24:58 +0000

Forget what I just posted about the time frame. I just got this from Wikipedia and I quote:

“Under this system, when an NPB player is “posted”, MLB holds a four-day-long silent auction during which MLB teams can submit sealed bids in an attempt to win the exclusive rights to negotiate with the player for a period of 30 days. If the MLB team with the winning bid and the NPB player agree on contract terms before the 30-day period has expired, the NPB team receives the bid amount as a transfer fee, and the player is free to play in MLB. If the MLB team cannot come to a contract agreement with the posted player, then no fee is paid, and the player’s rights revert to his NPB team.”

By: Ben

Ben — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 22:21:26 +0000

I think the analogy is a bit misleading. Sure high schoolers haven’t been introduced to the rigors of a major-league regimen, but they’ve got several years to adapt and thrive. MLB teams are taking players from Japan who are used to a very different form of baseball (different pitching strategies, different training regimens, etc..) and expecting them to thrive right off the bat (pun intended). Thus far those players who have successfully adapted have been the exception rather than the rule. It’s not an enormous sample size to work with, but the results so far have hardly been encouraging.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 22:14:50 +0000

I think the posting time is about 10 to 14 days plus or minus. But I’m not really sure.

By: jwbiii

jwbiii — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 21:46:56 +0000

“it’s likely he will want an annual salary north of $10 million”

He made ¥500M, about $6.6M last season, so yes, he likely will want more than $10M.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 21:45:32 +0000

If he’s posted after the winter meetings, when will teams know who won the bidding? Anyone know?

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 21:44:39 +0000

Right on.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 21:16:07 +0000

I think they will bid. If for no other reason then to keep the other teams honest. And if by some chance they win the rights at a price they want that’s great. My guess is in total the Yankees will probably limit the total deal posting and actual contract to about $85MM if he can be had for that (which I don’t think he can be) then they will sign him. For that much since the posting fee isn’t subject to the luxury tax I think the Yankees can live with it.
Just my opinion but I’d say the chances of the Yankees getting him are less then 10%.

By: dondada10

dondada10 — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 21:16:05 +0000

Saying the Yankees or Red Sox wouldn’t have interest because of the failures of past Japanese pitchers is short sighted. It’s like saying a team won’t draft a high schooler because of the failures of past high schoolers.

Teams will make their judgements based on their scouting of Darvish.

By: cur68

cur68 — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 21:12:44 +0000

Darvish I think will be fine in MLB. He’s a far different animal than Matsuzaka. I’d be real happy to see him on the Beaver Men. Anyhow, who says Japanese guys can’t play out of this world basbeball?

By: proudlycanadian

proudlycanadian — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 21:01:04 +0000

I doubt that the Yankees and the Red Sox will bid based on their past experience with Japanese pitchers. The Jays are known to have scouted him.

By: uyf1950

uyf1950 — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 20:49:10 +0000

I can’t see the Yankees going all in on Darvish. Will they bid on him? Sure. But I doubt they bid $45MM plus just to negotiate with him and on top of that pay him $50MM plus over 5 years or so. I just don’t see the Yankees tying up about $100MM on someone who has never pitched 1 inning in the Major Leagues.
Just my opinion but I suspect they would rather use that money for someone in the FA class next year that has a track record in MLB.

By: D.J. Short

D.J. Short — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 20:39:45 +0000

Whoops. Meant MLB, actually. Thanks!

By: proudlycanadian

proudlycanadian — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 20:21:26 +0000

He may be pitching in the US, but will his home team be in Canada?