Comments on: Hunter Pence as your 2012 NL MVP?

By: rc5000

rc5000 — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 15:07:44 +0000

Whoa, Pence put up MVP numbers because he’ll be the cleanup hitter? Let’s just hope he can do well in the role and we don’t screw him up. This is probably going to be Cholly’s big challenge if Rhino is out for an extended period which seems likely.

Batting 4th according to baseball reference , he has a whopping

1 hr in 129 PA’s. Only 6 BBs and 30 k’s. Career OPS+ OF 51. Granted his numbers may improve some IF he nails the spot down but you’re making the case he might put up MVP numbers and that appears to be a stretch.

If Rhino is out an extended length of time , they may have a revolving door there. In a small sample size , Mayberry’s numbers are also very bad but he’s more of a power hitter only.

Article should be about can Pence fill the role and who can be the cleanup hitter. Not implying Pence is an MVP candidate when he clearly has to learn the role at best.

By: stex52

stex52 — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 16:55:30 +0000

I’m going to go away from the statistics and make an observation as someone who watched him at Houston. He plays all-out, that is his only speed. It is impossible not to like him. As you would expect of such an all-out player, he lacks plate discipline. He struggled with that his whole time in Houston. When he is on, he is awesome. When he is a little off, pitchers eat him up with the outside slider.

I would have him back on my team in a heartbeat. But to me the likelihood of MVP numbers for a whole year is a littlle low. I hope he proves me wrong.

By: thefalcon123

thefalcon123 — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 16:53:33 +0000

“Why? Because I am stating the obvious? You can not keep trotting out sample size when the basic facts changed. When the player changes teams, and does better, you can’t simple chalk it up to sample size.”

Holy crap dude, the basic facts ARE the same. This comment is so comically absurd I having a hard time not just slamming my head against the desk. The basic facts are that Pence is hitting a baseball thrown from aprox 60 feet away on a diamond. Park factors certainly have an effect, but saying those last 236 plate appearances are a better indicator than the previous 3,000 just because he changed ballparks is ridiculous.

Just from briefly combing through baseballreference’s game logs Pence has had the following stretches:
161 PAs with a .946 OPS in 2010
196 PAs with a 1.031 OPS in 2009
103 PAs with a .653 OPS in 2008
160 PAs with a .960 OPS in 2008
201 PAs with a .601 OPS in 2008

So…did you think over any of those stretches that Pence was on of elite hitters in baseball…or among the worst? No, it’s a sample size issue. They occured during the middle of the season, so the effects were less noticeable. The culmination of all his 2008 numbers provides the best indicator for his future performance, not any of those single stretches. Just like the culmination of his career numbers are a better indicator of his future performance than 250 PAs with the Phillies.

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 16:24:29 +0000

Why? Because I am stating the obvious? You can not keep trotting out sample size when the basic facts changed. When the player changes teams, and does better, you can’t simple chalk it up to sample size. It could end up being sample size…but it also could be a variety of things. Basically, what the paper man is doing is comparing apples to oranges…Pence with the Astros is Apples and Pence with the Phillies is Oranges.

By: manute

manute — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 15:52:10 +0000

Wow. If it weren’t for Branch Rickey and, oh, 50 years of progress after him, this would be outstanding statistical analysis.

Props for working fielding percentage into a baseball discussion in 2011 tho.

By: thefalcon123

thefalcon123 — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 15:43:02 +0000

“paperbag, the only time sample size has any meaning whatsoever is if the basic template remains the same.”

Holy shit Chris, you just made ever Statistics professor in America throw up in their mouth.

By: thefalcon123

thefalcon123 — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 15:40:00 +0000

Pence is…good. But his numbers last year were inflated due to our good friend BABIP:

2008: .301
2009: .308
2010: .304
2011: .361

He’ll be fine, but I highly doubt he’s a 5 win player again next. His power/K’s/BB were all pretty much the same…just a lot more balls fell in for hits than they did in year’s past. It happens, and it’s important not to get too excited by a players future due to this. I think the notion that a corner outfielder with a career .817 OPS prior to last year has a shot at the MVP is pretty far off.

By: jeffhink

jeffhink — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 15:05:39 +0000

You do know there’s a difference between being a great team and winning a division, right? The Padres won their division a few years back with a winning percentage right around .500. It may have even been under .500, but I don’t remember and I’m not taking the time to look it up.

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 14:59:09 +0000

paperbag, the only time sample size has any meaning whatsoever is if the basic template remains the same. For instance, if a guy hits .300 over his first 10 seasons with the Mets, then he moves to the Rockies and hits .350 over his first 50 games, you can’t simply push everything off to sample size, because maybe he is more comfortable in Colorado…maybe the hitting coach there gave him a tip he never heard and is doing something different…maybe there’s a girl he started banging when he got traded there and he’s playing better because his life is better…or maybe, it’s sample size. But it seems to me that you ALWAYS put WAY too much emphasis on sample size when it doesn’t ALWAYS apply.

By: cintiphil

cintiphil — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 14:44:34 +0000

Evan, don’t be a bigger dolt than you are. I am a Reds fan, and I do go to some games during the year, and I do watch all the time. there is a sea of red in the stands for almost every game I watch in person or on T-V. There is no other team with more support than the Reds, however in this day, Cinti does not have the big money to compete with the larger cities for the best players, and we have to use money as wisely as possible just to stay competitive. Go back to the 90 series and see how many fans had Reds stuff on, when the Reds went wire to wire in first place, then swept everyone in the playoffs and series. THE GEAR HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. Before absolutely outrageous money came into the game, we could compete. NOT NOW!

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 14:05:14 +0000

Crap posted in wrong thread…please ignore

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 14:04:40 +0000

Here is the math:

Each team plays the other 18 times for a total of 54 games. If every team plays .500 ball in those games (which is optimal for all 4 teams to win 90 games). Every team has to go AT LEAST 63-45 in the rest of their schedule. Even if the optimal outcome occurs and the 4 teams go .500 against each other, it is highly unlikely that all 4 teams will also play at least .583 ball against the rest of the league.

Last year 5 teams in all of baseball played that well. It is highly unlikely that 4 teams in one division will play that well, and it is even more unlikely that they will get the necessary outcomes in their games against each other to make that unlikely outcome sufficient for all to reach 90 games.

Three teams winning 90 games is much easier than 4….there just aren’t that many wins go to around.

By: Jonny 5

Jonny 5 — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 13:54:27 +0000

PL,Chris, I tend to think you both are correct in your own way. We’ve seen players get better, and stay better just from a change of scenery which brings a new coach, a coaching change, or just the fact that they figured something out. While I tend to believe that Pence will be what he was stat wise, I also wouldn’t be shocked to see him elevate his game either. Only because we have seen it happen before. #strangerthingshavehappened

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 13:37:23 +0000

Chris, it doesn’t depend on whether you think players are robots, it depends on whether or not you understand the most basic fundamentals of probability and sample size as estimators of parameters.

Larger sample sizes simply better reflect a players talent/production level than small sample sizes. If they were robots, then they would produce at the exact same level constantly…of course that doesn’t happen. Every player has hot and cold streaks along with time that they produce at or close to their norms. Over larger samples, that variation evens out and you see “who a player is”. Pence has been around a long time, there is enough data to see exactly who he is as a player…..and that is better than Philly fans thought he was when they traded for him….but not nearly as good as he played over that 2 month stretch.

If Hunter Pence keeps being Hunter Pence, Philly fans should be happy because that is a damned fine player….but he won’t be anything like the MVP of his own team unless 3 of their starters get hurt…he is unlikely to put up a .390+ OBP, and he is unlikely to put up a .550 SLG over the course of an entire season….not because he’s a robot programmed not to…but because 5 seasons of data strongly suggest that he simply isn’t good enough to do so.

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 13:18:13 +0000

I guess it just depends on whether you think the guys are robots or are human beings. If they are robots, then sure, he will continue to play exactly as he played with the dreadful Astros, in that shitty lineup, with no chance of succeeding. If they are human beings, then maybe he plays a little better with a better lineup around him, happier to be in a pennant race playing meaningful games every night, and excited to have a fresh start on his career.

Nah, there are no columns on the spreadsheets for “excitement”, “pennant race” and “lineup”.

#justsaying

By: Jonny 5

Jonny 5 — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 13:13:07 +0000

Basically that was my point JBerardi and PL. I expect him to be “Hunter Pence” still. But I hope he continues to play like he did in his last 54 games. I don’t believe this will happen, I hope it does.

By: purnellmeagrejr

purnellmeagrejr — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 12:48:52 +0000

I don’t care if he is the MVP I just want him to be named Captain.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 12:42:27 +0000

Let’s see….if I am going to try to predict how well Pence will play next year, what should I use?

a) a 54 game sample in which he had a .394 OBP and .560 SLG, or

b) a 734 game sample in which he had a .343 OBP and a .485 SLG?

Pence is a fine player, but let’s not get carried away.

By: Chris Fiorentino

Chris Fiorentino — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 12:05:13 +0000

Wow Matt…from this…

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/29/phillies-pay-heavy-price-for-non-star-in-hunter-pence/

to this…

“I’ll admit that I wrote it off in about a nano-second after reading the headline, but the more I thought about it, it’s not so far-fetched.”

Like another poster asked…is it April 1st already?

By: badmamainphilliesjamas

badmamainphilliesjamas — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:51:36 +0000

@evan – I’m a lifelong Phils fan, and I love to see folks around town wearing Phillies gear, but that’s a fairly recent phenomenon. I’d say it’s a bit circular . . . the team started winning, CBP opened, attendance went up, ownership opened their wallets, the team won some more, more people became fans, ownership spent more money, etc. It’s been a happy time to be a Phillies fan.

By: evanwins

evanwins — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:07:20 +0000

JBerardi:
The Phillies payroll grew as a direct result of higher attendance and merchandising sales. (I live in Center City Philadelphia and you cannot walk a block without seeing a hat, a shirt, etc…) The organization chose to put that money directly back into the team, fielding the best team they possibly could. People here LOVE the team and the organization. They willingly buy tickets and merchandise. They are proud of it.

If you think there is anything at all wrong with that and that “we are doomed as a nation” because of that, well that’s your problem I feel sorry for you because you obviously have no idea of how things work. What’s worse is that you condemn it, as if there is something wrong with supporting “something” you are truly fond of and that that “something” reaps benefits because of their success.

HittFamily:

From MLB regarding 2010 attendance:
Three teams in baseball played to beyond-capacity crowds at home this season. The Philadelphia Phillies played to a 103.5% capacity this season at Citizens Bank Park, the highest figure in baseball. The Phillies also played to 75.4% capacity on the road, making the Phillies, baseball’s most popular attraction.

So, yeah, The Phils are kind of the premier ORGANIZATION in baseball.

By: hittfamily

hittfamily — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:25:15 +0000

Wow. Great coment. The Phils are the premier organazition in all of baseball, if not all sports, right?

How dare I comment on here without at least 4 Phillies jerseys.

Wow. You are insufferable dude. I’m not a Reds fan. The blogger made a comment that the Reds won’t be very good next year, and I disagreed. I accurately pointed out that every other potential contending NL central team will be weaker next year, and showed the reason why. Somehow, without a reasonable arguement from you, my proof sucks, and the Reds can’t win because I don’t wear 2 of their jerseys at once. Brilliant.

I’m a Rays fan. I own 10 of their jerseys. Well not so much own, but I have them. I stole them, costing my team $1000, but they win anyway.

If I went to a Phils game, I’d wear 2 at once also. When someone enevitably throws up on me, the first comes off, and we are back in business.

By: Matthew Pouliot

Matthew Pouliot — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 08:35:49 +0000

I just figured one bad analogy deserved another. It was far more of a general complaint than one directed at you. Sorry.

But really… who ever says it’s “only because they’re there”? You’re taking a viewpoint to an extreme that no one ever argues in favor of.

Howard does quite well as far as runs batted in per opportunity. But if that was the stat that people actually looked at, instead of just raw RBI totals, I don’t think he’d be in the MVP conversation quite so frequently.

By: Utley's Hair

Utley's Hair — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 08:21:34 +0000

What part of what I said told you I thought the world is against me? I just think it’s a pretty dumb cyclical argument. Without baserunners, there would be no RBI. If he didn’t drive them in, he would be blasted for not driving them in. If he does, he gets them only because they’re there.

By: Matthew Pouliot

Matthew Pouliot — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 07:50:51 +0000

Which was largely my doing.

I thought Pence was rated just fine as a member of the Astros.

“It’s just like Howard only gets all those RBI because he’s lucky enough to get those baserunners on in front of him.”

It’s just like the people who think the whole world is against them just because someone looks at things a bit differently than they do.

By: Utley's Hair

Utley's Hair — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 07:41:45 +0000

Around the time of Pence’s trade last year, it was a running joke around these parts that he was overrated. Phightins Phans kept it going in a farcical way after he proved the opposite. It’s just like Howard only gets all those RBI because he’s lucky enough to get those baserunners on in front of him.

By: evanwins

evanwins — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 06:37:32 +0000

Overrated? Just out of curiosity, can you name 3 OF’s going into their 4th, 5th or 6th year who have been better all-around players than Pence?

How about we look at 2 viable MVP candidates from last year, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp who are both entering their 6th season, just like Pence:

Pence: .292 avg, 157 2Bs, 114 HRs, .343 OBP, 58 Assists, .989 Field%
Ellsbury: .301 avg, 106 2Bs, 52 HRs, .352 OBP, 14 Assists, .998 Field%
Kemp: .294 avg, 140 2Bs, 128 HRs, .350 OBP, 48 Assist, .985 Field%
Braun: .312 avg, 187 2Bs, 161 HRs, .371 OBP, 31 Assists, .995 Field% (Entering 5th season)

Pretty comparable, don’t you think? And don’t forget, those other guys had the benefit of being on very good teams and they all had some type of protection hitting behind them, something Pence was never afforded. I look at those other 3 guys and how much praise and accolades they get and it looks more an more like Pence is actually VERY UNDERRATED.

By: JBerardi

JBerardi — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 06:17:48 +0000

“Hey, if you REALLY want to help your team, why don’t you go buy a jersey. Look at the stands during a Phillies game – everyone there has 2 (TWO!!!) pieces of Phillies gear on, EVERYONE. When I watch those Reds games (even when they were in the playoffs in ’10) I barely saw ANY Reds gear in the crowd. It’s that money that helps build a better team.”

We are doomed as a nation.

By: JBerardi

JBerardi — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 06:15:13 +0000

What makes you so sure he never had as good a 54 game streak with Houston? Would you have noticed? Would anyone have noticed?

Pence is a career 292/.343/.485 hitter. The smart money would be on him hitting something in the rough area of 292/.343/.485 this year.

By: evanwins

evanwins — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 06:02:20 +0000

Way to think positive. While your at it why don’t you just make them the favorites to win the ’12 Series?

I guess you missed the GM’s comments the other day about how frustrated even he was with the way the team is looking for ’12.

Hey, if you REALLY want to help your team, why don’t you go buy a jersey. Look at the stands during a Phillies game – everyone there has 2 (TWO!!!) pieces of Phillies gear on, EVERYONE. When I watch those Reds games (even when they were in the playoffs in ’10) I barely saw ANY Reds gear in the crowd. It’s that money that helps build a better team.