Dec 21, 2011, 11:00 AM EDT
The hit and run play: when it works and the batter pokes a single through the right side of the infield resulting in runners on the corners and nobody out, boy, it’s a thing of friggin’ beauty. When it doesn’t and results in a strike-em-out/throw-em-out double play it’s the most maddening thing on the planet.
But does it work? In the aggregate, I mean?
That’s the question Mike Fast of Baseball Prospectus attempted to answer. And he does so with a thoroughness that is pretty damn breathtaking.
Be warned, though: if you’re the sort of person who glazes over when confronted with graphs and charts and things, you may just want to scroll to the conclusion. Which, wouldn’t you know it, is full of nuance and complexity, just like everything else worth knowing in life:
The hit-and-run is far from the worst play in baseball. For a small-ball tactic, it has been quite successful over the past nine seasons, increasing scoring by .06 runs per attempt on average … However, there are some situations where the hit-and-run attempt made less sense and was a barely positive or even a net negative play—with the fourth and fifth hitters in the lineup up, with one out, or in the popular ball-strike count of 2-1.
I suppose that won’t stop the old school guys from thinking it’s the best thing ever and the stat guys from thinking it’s the worst thing ever. But hey, there’s fun in that stuff too.
- Astros acquire Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers from Brewers 38
- Pirates bolster bullpen, pick up Joakim Soria from Tigers 10
- 2015 MLB Trade Deadline Tracker 4
- The extraordinarily odd, 13-player Dodgers-Marlins-Braves trade is done 62
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers 111
- Both the Phillies and the Rangers did well in the Cole Hamels trade 72
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies 106
- Mets, Brewers call off reported Carlos Gomez trade 78
- The MLBPA is considering withholding cooperation with ESPN, Fox over Colin Cowherd’s comments (157)
- The Cubs are in discussions with the Phillies on Cole Hamels (146)
- Major League Baseball rips Colin Cowherd in an official statement (123)
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (111)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)