Dec 21, 2011, 11:00 AM EDT
The hit and run play: when it works and the batter pokes a single through the right side of the infield resulting in runners on the corners and nobody out, boy, it’s a thing of friggin’ beauty. When it doesn’t and results in a strike-em-out/throw-em-out double play it’s the most maddening thing on the planet.
But does it work? In the aggregate, I mean?
That’s the question Mike Fast of Baseball Prospectus attempted to answer. And he does so with a thoroughness that is pretty damn breathtaking.
Be warned, though: if you’re the sort of person who glazes over when confronted with graphs and charts and things, you may just want to scroll to the conclusion. Which, wouldn’t you know it, is full of nuance and complexity, just like everything else worth knowing in life:
The hit-and-run is far from the worst play in baseball. For a small-ball tactic, it has been quite successful over the past nine seasons, increasing scoring by .06 runs per attempt on average … However, there are some situations where the hit-and-run attempt made less sense and was a barely positive or even a net negative play—with the fourth and fifth hitters in the lineup up, with one out, or in the popular ball-strike count of 2-1.
I suppose that won’t stop the old school guys from thinking it’s the best thing ever and the stat guys from thinking it’s the worst thing ever. But hey, there’s fun in that stuff too.
- Settling the Score: Friday’s results 9
- Mike Minor loses his no-hit bid with two outs in the eighth 5
- Manny Machado to undergo season-ending knee surgery 32
- The Cubs grounds crew was short staffed because the Cubs were trying to avoid Obamacare 242
- Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to sign with the Red Sox for $72 million 96
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 31
- The Nationals extend their winning streak to 10 games with another walk-off victory 12
- Garrett Richards out 6-9 months with torn patellar tendon 14
- The Cubs grounds crew was short staffed because the Cubs were trying to avoid Obamacare (242)
- Mike Matheny addresses turmoil in Ferguson: “It’s a sad situation. It’s a tough situation for our city” (127)
- Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to sign with the Red Sox for $72 million (96)
- A pitch clock in Major League Baseball? No thanks. (92)
- Even if he’s reinstated, does Pete Rose make the Hall of Fame? (86)