Jan 2, 2012, 9:27 AM EDT
Over at ESPN David Schoenfield points out something interesting. That while we’re all assuming that Barry Larkin — who got 62% of the vote last year — will be pushed over 75% of the vote and into the Hall of Fame this year, it’s not a mortal lock. At least if you look at the historic gains players who have notched 60%+ of the vote year-by-year have received:
While [being over 60% last year] is a positive sign for Larkin, as you can see from the above chart, not all the players made it immediately upon reaching 60 percent. The average percentage gain in election year for those 12 was 10.8 percent, so if Larkin receives that increase, he’ll fall just short.
Schoenfield thinks — as do I — that Larkin will top 75% this year and make it. But man, I am sort of hung up on the possibility that he won’t now. Maybe I’m just overly prone to suggestion this morning.
Anyway, I’m wondering what it would mean for the Hall of Fame if we have a year — like we had back in 1996 — with no one elected. This is especially intriguing in light of all of the worthy candidates that the Hall voters appear to be poised to pass on for now and the foreseeable future due to steroids stuff. It’s going to be bad enough a year from now when we’ll have likely established that the Hall of Fame has kept out the best hitter (Bonds) and pitcher (Clemens) of a generation.
If they’re also passing up guys like Larkin, I’ll really start to struggle to see the point of the place.
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 0
- Tony La Russa denies that Kirk Gibson’s job is safe 13
- Pirates activate Andrew McCutchen from the disabled list 1
- HBT Daily: They’ve dropped six straight, but the Pirates may be the Wild Card favorites 2
- The Diamondbacks plan to bring back Kirk Gibson for some reason 30
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 32
- Numbers game: Tigers fall victim to baseball’s speed obsession 46
- Twins prospect Byron Buxton done for season after concussion 4
- Mike Matheny addresses turmoil in Ferguson: “It’s a sad situation. It’s a tough situation for our city” (125)
- Jayson Werth clocked at 105 m.p.h. in a 55 zone, is charged with reckless driving (88)
- Here’s today’s dose of barfy Derek Jeter sentiment (82)
- Baseball is dying, you guys (78)
- A vote for Tom Werner for commissioner is a vote to return to the dark ages (78)