Comments on: 2012 projections: top 10 first basemen

By: redbirdsin7

redbirdsin7 — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 19:01:06 +0000

thanks for giving some credit to konerko. it seems every year he gets dogged in pre season projections and expectations for whatever reason. check out his last couple of years. despite his advanced age, he belongs

By: umrguy42

umrguy42 — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:44:35 +0000

I don’t know how the Angels’ park plays, but Pujols was out for a couple weeks last year, which along with a (seemingly) slow start, presumably affected his stats (I’d almost guarantee he’d've continued his streak of .300/30HR/100RBI seasons if he hadn’t missed that time – IIRC, he ended with .299/30-something/99 as it was).

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:35:57 +0000

The point is that “protection” is a tradeoff, and if it made a difference, we’d see that differenc in how people actually do at the plate with protection behind them. But batters don’t do any better with sluggers behind them than without.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:30:58 +0000

Your reply is waiting in the lobby, sir. (Reply fail.)

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:29:24 +0000

I’m not so sure how you should factor in AL-NL switches, but for park factors, Matt is spot on. It’s MUCH harder to hit a home run in DET as a left-hander than a right-hander, and it’s much EASIER to hit a homer as a left-hander than a righty in MIL. Similarly, while Anaheim is a bit of a pitcher’s park, the new Busch Stadium is even more so. So right away, Pujols is going to a park that should improve his numbers, and Fielder is going to somewhere that will hurt his.

Most projections also factor in a bounceback year from Pujols, considering his “down” (but still excellent) year, and a falloff from Fielder, who’s been merely good two of the last four years.

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:14:47 +0000

Those things tend to recur, though, so we don’t really know. Here’s hoping you’re right!

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:13:27 +0000

It’s not a great stat, but OPS is known to most everyone at this point. wOBA or wRC+ aren’t.

The rate stat issue isn’t a big deal to me since we’re also given projected ABs.

I would like to see OBP and SLG. A .400/.450 player is very very different from a .300/.550 player

By: Ari Collins

Ari Collins — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:07:42 +0000

Multiple gold gloves? Thanks for the morning joke!

By: spartybob9

spartybob9 — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 14:50:06 +0000

How can you use the NL-AL switch to justify a huge drop for Fielder (which I tend to agree with), while at the same time giving Pujols an 0.087 pt lift as he makes a similar move; and after he signs a huge 10-year deal… I don’t see it. Let’s be clear, Comerica is a hitter’s park. With a short(er) right field porch, how does it favor righties?

By: bigharold

bigharold — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 14:43:57 +0000

“The Cabrera at 3rd experiment isn’t going to last long.”

Yoour likely right. but, f that’s the case then Fielder will get 100-125 ABs at 1st and the rest a DH. Which leads to the question how can you rank him in the top 10 with such a small sample size?

By: Francisco (FC)

Francisco (FC) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 14:32:55 +0000

Wha? It’s either a myth or it’s not, what is this “At least mostly” you’re peddling? Don’t go for half-tush. Grab it with both hands and own it dude!

By: thekcubrats

thekcubrats — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 14:25:12 +0000

Well, since Matthew just pulls his numbers out of his [hat], what’s the diff?

By: greggbo

greggbo — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 14:12:21 +0000

Gonzalez should improve, not fall off. Shoulder should be completely healed, which should add much more power.

By: kiwicricket

kiwicricket — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:45:02 +0000

Back to what exactly?

By: stex52

stex52 — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:36:38 +0000

Pretty severe fall off projected for Berkman. It will depend on his left-handed power. I admit they will miss Pujols, but the middle of that lineup is still deadly and Berkman did some of his worst damage while Pujols was out of the lineup. He will still be a Walks machine.

By: mattjg

mattjg — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:33:15 +0000

Lineup protection is (at least mostly) a myth: http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/

If Votto is being pitched around in nearly every at bat because pitchers don’t fear the next batter, his OBP should increase due to the additional walks, thus raising his OPS.

By: mattjg

mattjg — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:27:58 +0000

Not to nitpick, but why use OPS? As a rate stat, OPS fails to take into account the added value of having more plate appearances.

Additionally, and more importantly, OPS overstates the value of slugging percentage compared to on base percentage. Why not use a stat like wOBA that does a better job of weighting the various components or even just give us slugging and on base separately?

Again, these are just minor gripes. I always enjoy seeing preseason rankings even if I don’t agree with them 100%.

By: phlockar

phlockar — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:27:40 +0000

Give Votto some protection and he’s higher than 3rd. Tough to put up great numbers when you get pitched around almost every at bat.

By: Jonny 5

Jonny 5 — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:16:35 +0000

By: buffalomafia

buffalomafia — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 09:36:52 +0000

How long will it take for Howard to recover?

By: yettyskills

yettyskills — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 06:54:23 +0000

Going to last all the way to multiple Gold Gloves

By: Lucas

Lucas — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 04:56:13 +0000

Sure you can. They will likely end up splitting time at 1B and DH. The Cabrera at 3rd experiment isn’t going to last long.

By: bigharold

bigharold — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 04:28:50 +0000

“… these are just OPS projections for 2012, …”

I think its either or with the Tigers. You can’t rank Cabrera AND Fielder at first base because clearly one of them won’t be at first.

By: vols84

vols84 — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:48:26 +0000

Hosmer will be a beast

By: rkel10

rkel10 — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:18:37 +0000

What about Goldschmidt? It wouldn’t shock me if he has a breakout year, the ball flies off his bat!

By: pellypell

pellypell — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:08:41 +0000

By seasons end, Hosmer cracks the top 5*.

*This prediction has has nothing to do with me owning him in my keeper league.