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Rockies add an underrated arm in Jeremy Guthrie

Feb 6, 2012, 6:06 PM EDT

Jeremy Guthrie AP

There’s nothing sexy about a 47-65 career record. Jeremy Guthrie has led the AL in losses twice and in homers allowed once. He’s never won even a dozen games or struck out more than 130 batters in a season. Still, the Rockies should be very happy to have him, especially for the modest price of Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom.

From 2009-11, nine full-time starting pitchers have left the AL East for greener pastures. All nine of them improved their ERAs immediately, and eight of the nine finished the next year with a superior ERA+, which adjusts for league and ballpark.

Here’s the list:

2008 Edwin Jackson (TB) – 4.42 ERA, 100 ERA+
2009 Edwin Jackson (Det) – 3.62 ERA, 126 ERA+

2008 Garrett Olson (Bal) – 6.60 ERA, 67 ERA+
2009 Garrett Olson (Sea) – 5.60 ERA, 77 ERA+ (11 starts, 20 relief appearances)

2009 Roy Halladay (Tor) – 2.79 ERA, 159 ERA+
2010 Roy Halladay (Phi) – 2.44 ERA, 167 ERA+

2009 Scott Kazmir (TB) – 5.92 ERA, 73 ERA+ (20 starts)
2009-10 Kazmir (LAA) – 5.12 ERA, 80 ERA+ (34 starts)

2009 Brad Penny (BOS) – 5.61 ERA, 84 ERA+ (24 starts)
2009-10 Penny (SF, STL) – 2.96 ERA, 141 ERA+ (15 starts)

2010 Matt Garza (TB) – 3.91 ERA, 100 ERA+
2011 Matt Garza (CHC) – 3.32 ERA, 118 ERA+

2010 Javier Vazquez (NYY) – 5.32 ERA, 81 ERA+
2011 Javier Vazquez (FL) – 3.69 ERA, 106 ERA+

2010 Shaun Marcum (Tor) – 3.64 ERA, 115 ERA+
2011 Shaun Marcum (Mil) – 3.54 ERA, 110 ERA+

2010 Kevin Millwood (Bal) – 5.10 ERA, 82 ERA+
2011 Kevin Millwood (Col) – 3.98 ERA, 113 ERA+ (9 starts)

Now, granted, there are some huge sample-size issues here. It might be worth throwing out Olson and Millwood entirely, given that Olson lost his spot in Seattle’s rotation and Millwood got only nine starts for the Rockies. But I didn’t try to further my point by including John Smoltz or Ian Kennedy, since they had received only limited action with Boston and New York, respectively.

Anyway, pitching in the AL East is simply a different beast, in my opinion. That’s especially the case for Orioles hurlers. Not only do they often have to face four offenses that have tended to range between good and great, but they have to do it half of the time in one of the league’s toughest home run parks.

Guthrie, for what it’s worth, had a 4.33 ERA and a 95 ERA+ last year. In 2010, he finished with a 3.83 ERA and a 119 ERA+. As a modest flyball pitcher going to Coors Field, his numbers probably aren’t in for much of a boost. In fact, in adjusting his Rotoworld projection today, I merely dropped his ERA¬†from 4.38 right back to 4.33.

Still, that¬†makes him a substantial upgrade in Colorado. The Rockies got a 4.73 ERA from their starters last year, and the group averaged only 5.8 innings per start. Guthrie has averaged 6.3 innings per start in his career, and he’s been doing it against the Red Sox and Yankees, not the Padres and Giants.

  1. alexandercartwright - Feb 6, 2012 at 9:11 PM

    Biggest factor that’s not stressed enough is Guthrie, who in 09 lead the AL in HRs given up and ranked 4th last year, is going from Camden Yards ranked 8th in park HRs to number 2 Coors Field

    • okobojicat - Feb 7, 2012 at 9:22 AM

      True, but he’s also going from:
      Camden (8)
      Yankee Stadium (4)
      Rogers Center (6)
      Fenway (22)
      Tropicana (21)
      to
      Coors (2)
      Dodger Stadium (19)
      AT&T (30)
      Chase (10)

      Most of his games outside of Coors will be in much easier parks against much inferior offenses.

  2. hushbrother - Feb 7, 2012 at 3:25 AM

    Also working against him is he’s leaving a manager who’s pretty smart for one who might be the dumbest in baseball.

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