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About my projections

Feb 8, 2012, 11:01 PM EDT


Since there have been plenty of questions following some recent entries here, let me tell you a bit about my Rotoworld projections:

– They’re done by hand. I look at past numbers and apply my own judgment.

– This is my 12th year doing a full set of projections. This year’s included about 760 hitters and 790 pitchers.

– I don’t claim to be the best at projecting performance. As far as I can tell, there is no system that routinely outperforms the pack.

– Where I thrive is in projecting playing time and situation-dependent stats, like runs, RBI and saves. Thus I do claim to sport some of the very best fantasy projections around, and there’s evidence backing that up.

So, yeah, take the OPS projections with a grain of salt. I’m just providing them for fun. Since we’re selling the draft guide on Rotoworld (and it brings in a very significant portion of our revenue from the year), I’m limited in what I can carry over here.

And if you don’t like the OPS projections for your favorite players, don’t worry too much about it. My median miss last year was 51 points. I was 304 points off on Adam Dunn. The one player I nailed exactly was Adam Jones at .785. Of the 208 players projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and finished with at least that many, I was within 30 points of OPS on 74 of them (36 percent) and at least 90 points off on 57 of them (27 percent).

  1. Tim's Neighbor - Feb 9, 2012 at 1:09 AM

    Thanks for this explanation. I had been wondering about the process. I really enjoy Szymborski’s ZIPS, but I don’t see his as fantasy baseball projections. I definitely buy in to yours now that I know the spots you’re good at and that it is more fantasy oriented.

    This post made me want to buy the whole guide for sure!

    • Louie Schuth - Feb 10, 2012 at 10:58 AM

      You’re not in a league with me so I’ll recommend it to you 100%.

  2. cur68 - Feb 9, 2012 at 1:32 AM

    This will be my first time playing fantasy baseball. I intend to use your rankings to select players, Mathew. I have no objection to your rankings and understand (because I can f*ckin’ read) how and why you do them as you do, so please understand that I am grateful for your efforts and want you to continue them just as they are for all positions. You may need to post disclaimer every time you throw up another post, but rest assured, to those paying attention, you have no objections from the likes of us (unless you do something crazy like rank Vernon Wells in the top 10 of anything besides being evil).

    • Jonny 5 - Feb 9, 2012 at 8:26 AM

      The Beaver Lumber squad shall suffer at the hands of the SJ Redstitches. It is written in the snow. Don’t eat it, it’s yellow.

      • cur68 - Feb 9, 2012 at 2:21 PM

        I fear nothing written in yellow snow. Nothing. Your Red Stitches sound vaguely socialist. My Beaver Lumberers will annihilate the Red Menace from the face of the fantasy league.

  3. thekcubrats - Feb 9, 2012 at 1:34 AM

    nice [hat] you got there

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