Comments on: Running down the rosters: San Diego Padres

By: brewcitybummer

brewcitybummer — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 17:08:30 +0000

Pehaps stupid is too strong. I’m weirdly obsessed with this idea of what type of park a small revenue team should build in order to help themselves out. If the Padres think they simply will not be able to retain a single elite hitter long term than maybe its smart to play in a park that would allow undervalued fly ball pitchers to thrive. I just think that if you only have 50-60 million to spend on payroll, you have a better shot of putting together several competitive years in row (which is what I think you need to build a fanbase) if you build a small park that allows you to put defensively pathetic sluggers at both corner outfield spots every day.

By: brewcitybummer

brewcitybummer — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 16:51:31 +0000

My suspicion with park effects is that the most important aspects cannot really be quantified. I think the perfect example is a right handed, line to line power hitter getting traded to the Padres. That hypothetical player could put up MVP numbers in a park like US cellular field which is somewhat small and plays straight up. But in Petco, that player has to transform himself into a dead pull hitter, which is an inferior player in a vacuum, but as a hitter in Petco, you have to do whatever you can to not hit the ball to center. Between the distance and the wind, if the Padres manage to draft a superstar caliber, line to line hitter, Petco will force him to become a lesser player. I think its a stupid park for a small revenue team to play in.

By: diablito0402

diablito0402 — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 15:21:02 +0000

Wow, no salary cap, why even bother with teams like my padres, jeter and a- rod get paid more than the whole padres team combined including management, baseball is sad in that aspect, padres pirates etc. have no chance..

By: micker716

micker716 — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 01:39:38 +0000

I like the Quentin move. The left field porch at Petco is doable for a true right-handed pull-hitter (like Quentin). If Quentin does produce (and stays healthy) he should have trade value at the deadline, assuming the Padres are out of contention.

By: ptfu

ptfu — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 01:32:46 +0000

Last year, the Padres lineup was better than it looked: it scored the sixth-most runs on the road in the National League. And that was with Ryan Ludwick and Kyle Blanks doing practically nothing in LF. Quentin’s better than those guys (at the plate). If Alonso can hit even a little, this lineup could be sneaky-good.

If anything sinks the team, it’ll be the starting rotation. A nice bullpen will help but won’t be enough to win the division.

By: icanspeel

icanspeel — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 01:10:30 +0000

The one thing people overlook at Petco is that it isn’t too friendly to power hitters, but there is a lot of space out there so if you are a contact/line drive hitter Petco isn’t such a bad place to hit. That is their idea with Yonder Alonso, so it will be interesting to see how that pans out.

By: icanspeel

icanspeel — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 01:08:33 +0000

The 2012 Padres are full of question marks, but odds makers had the over/under for wins at 70.5 which seems kind of low. With all the young talent 2012 may just be another growing pains type year, but at the same time if some of the young talent can come through now they may have a decent year. Bud Black shifts his lineup all the time so expect many different starting lineups. He even had Orlando Hudson hit clean up at 1 point last year.

By: Tim's Neighbor

Tim's Neighbor — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 00:12:46 +0000

Matt,

When you do your projections, do you do CPU projections, then adjust according intuition?

Petco is just all sorta of brutal on hitters. I don’t think I’d want to sign there if I were a FA hitter.

This has been a good series. Thanks for this.