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The Pirates are 13% more likely to make the playoffs

Mar 22, 2012, 8:50 AM EDT

pirates logo1

I suppose this applies to everyone by virtue of the new wild card, but for some reason I found it really cute that the Pittsburgh Pirates had someone calculate it:

Team president Frank Coonelly had Dan Fox, the Pirates’ statistical guru, build a computer model to illustrate the impact: The Pirates’ chance of making the playoffs increased 13 percent.

“We’re very much in favor of that,” Coonelly said with a smile.

This reminds me of teenage boys calculating their odds of losing their virginity by analyzing the male-to-female ration of their school. I mean, sure, I suppose that increases the chances of something happening, but there are a hell of a lot more factors in play, ya know?

  1. redguy12588 - Mar 22, 2012 at 8:55 AM


  2. Old Gator - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:00 AM

    Straight mathematical approaches won’t get the Pirates to the playoffs. They had better learn Nash Game Theory before they’re statistically eliminated, in the biological sense of the word.

    • churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:29 AM

      Like this?

      • Old Gator - Mar 22, 2012 at 10:04 AM

        I owe you a beer for finding me that web site.

        Not mass produced pisswater. Not just any beer. A great beer. Some small locally brewed European Oktoberfest dark special.

        And a big plate of marinated herring or smoked trout and grainy fresh black bread to go with it.

      • El Bravo - Mar 22, 2012 at 10:46 AM

        AHAHAHHAHAHA, this is great. The one college math course I did truly enjoy: Game Theory. It is also a fairly solid album by The Roots.

  3. bobhpine - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:00 AM

    and just like in high school, bullies like you try to validate their existence by picking on the weak kids

    • Old Gator - Mar 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

      Hey kid. Yeah, you. My friend tells me you said something about my mother. Let’s go outside.

  4. Baseball Beer Burritos In That Order - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

    I’ve seen pictures of it on the Google. Frank Coonelly’s smile is scarier than the Pirates hair.
    The man knows his way around a comb though. Power hairdo.

  5. Baseball Beer Burritos In That Order - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:06 AM

    I’ve seen pictures of it on the Google. Frank Coonelly’s smile is scarier than the Pirates’ logo.
    The man knows his way around a comb though. Power hairdo.

    • Old Gator - Mar 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

      My neighbor’s dog has the same one. What a coincidence.

  6. Francisco (FC) - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:07 AM

    So I guess the question is when are the Pirates going to pop their cherry? I mean 20 years… if this keeps up they’ll be spinsters…

    • florida76 - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:33 AM

      Hey, at least the Bucs have popped their cherry numerous times during their history. Sure beats the world championship virginity of teams like the Brewers, Rangers, Rockies, Padres, Nationals, Rays,

      How about the sports championship drought of the City of Cleveland since 1964, or the embarrassing streak since 1908 by the Cubbies? LOL

      • Old Gator - Mar 22, 2012 at 10:09 AM

        That’s true. I can still recall watching Mazeroski’s homer on my grandfather’s huge wood console with the little black and white TV in it. and his disgusted exclamation, “The Yonkiss stenk!” The Cubs? I only know of their last world series from the fossil record.

  7. El Bravo - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:07 AM

    You mean like this?

    • paperlions - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:15 AM

      Yep, like that.

  8. Jonny 5 - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:20 AM

    13% isn’t squat as evidenced below.

    Eating Red meat will up your chance of dying 13% too says a Harvard study. Sounds bad right? Well that’s the difference between living to 79 or 80. Yes, It’s only one year. I’ll keep my burgers and steaks thank you very much.

    • El Bravo - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:30 AM

      Eating red meat makes you more badass too (like smoking), thus it’s a trade-off. I’m on your side. Now where’s my breakfast steak? …or perhaps a meat pie…

      • Old Gator - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM

        Let’s reconsider this proposition: “Eating red meat increases your chances of dying.”

        Seems to me we have a 100% chance of dying no matter what we do.

      • Jonny 5 - Mar 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

        Well Gator, Back to those delectable cheese steaks for you? Wait, the study said nothing about cheese now did it? That probably ups the chances of dying 50%, but only if it’s real. The “wiz” will probably be around 60%.

        Bravo, I tend to think smoking doesn’t give the same image now as it did back in the days of Soc’s, Jocks, and Greasers. I’d say Mustangs and Madras have more of a badass effect today. Oh how times have changed.. Next we’ll find out Encyclopedia Britannica will no longer be in print.

      • El Bravo - Mar 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

        What’s this encyclopedia you speak of? Is that a website used for finding cheap deals on bikes?

      • Old Gator - Mar 22, 2012 at 11:58 AM

        Well, let’s see – I have here the Encyclopedia of Progress, Vol. II: Terrawatts to Steam, Captive. I think the information you’re looking for is in the articles on Tlon, Uqbar and Orbis Tertius. Ah, here’s “hron”….this one has some Pirates information….

  9. florida76 - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

    Actually, it’s probably fair to say the Pirates have a slightly better chance at the playoffs when you consider three factors. First this isn’t 2010, so people need to understand that, and stop generalizing. The team should be improved from last season, with better talent and odds are the injuries won’t be as numerous as in 2011.
    Second, the NL Central has been definitely weakened to the point the division champion may only have 88 wins. Third, the addition of the second wildcard means a club with 82 wins could get in.

  10. prosourcetalk - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:34 AM

    Playoffs? Let’s try .500 ball first

  11. steelerfanforlife - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:48 AM

    Back off Craig! We will take anything we can get!!

  12. nategearhart - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:49 AM

    They have a 13% greater OPPORTUNITY to make the playoffs. They need to act on it and take advantage of the opportunity. If they, like the boys in your analogy, sit back and wait for the playoffs to just walk up and let them in, the Pirates will find themselves spending the rest of their lives getting bloated on Mountain Dew and playing Warcraft with the Cubs and the Indians.

  13. toegoat - Mar 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

    13%??? Great now they have a total of -107% chance… should be a great yr……………….

  14. jason1214 - Mar 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

    The Pirates are NOT gonna make the postseason in 2012. Now back to my red meat and cigarettes.

  15. bravojawja - Mar 22, 2012 at 11:14 AM

    I foresee this exact same press conference after the Astros leave the NL next year.

  16. huffdaddyco - Mar 22, 2012 at 3:16 PM

    Unfortunately for the Pirates, there is an 87% chance that their playoff hopes ride on A.J. Burnett getting a bunt down.

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