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Springtime Storylines: Will standing pat get the Braves back to the playoffs?

Mar 29, 2012, 10:00 AM EDT

Fredi Gonzalez Reuters Reuters

Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2012 season. Up next: The Atlanta Braves.

The Big Question: Will standing pat get the Braves back to the playoffs?

The Braves didn’t get nearly as much attention as the Red Sox in the aftermath of the 2011 season, but their collapse was no less epic. They held a seemingly insurmountable 9 1/2 game lead for the National League Wild Card on August 26th (10 1/2 games ahead of the Cardinals, by the way), only to flush it all down the toilet in September.

One would think that such a miserable finish would provide Liberty Media with the impetus to allow GM Frank Wren to improve an offense which was 22nd in the majors last season in runs scored and OPS and 26th in batting average and on-base percentage, but while the Marlins and Nationals made splashy additions over the winter, the Braves did absolutely nothing. Well, except for trading the overpriced and disappointing Derek Lowe to the Indians for a minor league left-hander.

The inactivity looks bad from a symbolic perspective, but the Braves appear to be banking on bounce-back seasons from key players who dealt with injuries and/or ineffectiveness last season, including Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado and Brian McCann. They are also hoping for further progression from some of their young players, especially Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor and Freddie Freeman. Getting a full season out of Michael Bourn will probably help, too.

Remember, the Braves won 89 games last season when a lot of things didn’t go according to plan. Remember Dan Uggla‘s nightmare first half? If Heyward and Hanson get back on track, they have a good chance of being back in the thick of things again. And hey, at least there’s a second Wild Card this time around.

What else is going on?

  • Chipper Jones‘ farewell tour is already off to a shaky start, as he’s expected to miss at least the first few games of the season following arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. It’s certainly convenient that Martin Prado can just slide over to third base, but this leaves Eric Hinske and Matt Diaz splitting time in left field. In other words, on any given day, one of their best bench bats will be in the starting lineup. Some extra depth would be helpful. We’ve heard rumors that the Braves could be interested in Cubs’ outfielder Marlon Byrd, which would actually be a decent fit on paper. The Braves clearly need a backup plan, because chances are this won’t be Jones’ only DL-stint this season.
  • The Braves attempted to cash in Jair Jurrjens for a bat during the offseason, but a deal failed to materialize, likely due to the high price tag and lingering concerns over his right knee. However, the current depth is a pretty nice luxury to have, especially with Tim Hudson expected to miss the first month of the season following November back surgery. Randall Delgado will likely fill Hudson’s rotation spot for now and it’s possible the Braves could revisit the possibility of moving Jurrjens around the deadline. With any luck, top prospect right-hander Julio Teheran could be ready to make a big impact by then.
  • Can Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty possibly replicate what they did last year? Braves’ manager Fredi Gonzalez went to his three-headed relief monster early and often, as they combined for an ungodly 238 2/3 innings. Whether the overuse helped contribute to the team’s collapse is up for debate — Kimbrel did fall off a little bit in September — but Kris Medlen could really help lighten the load in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Braves let veteran shortstop Alex Gonzalez walk over the winter, but the expectation was that they would sign a short-term bridge for prospect Tyler Pastornicky. That didn’t happen. And no, bringing back the injury-prone Jack Wilson doesn’t count. Even worse, Pastornicky isn’t a lock to win the starting shortstop job out of spring training. It’s now possible that the slick-fielding Andrelton Simmons will get the nod, despite never playing above High-A. Either way, the Braves will potentially have one of the weakest hitting regulars in the majors.

How are they gonna do?

The Marlins and Nationals are naturally getting more buzz this spring following their highly-active offseasons, but I still feel like the Braves have more immediate upside than either of them. Of course, my optimism hinges on the starting rotation staying healthy and Heyward returning to form, which is obviously no lock. Fredi Gonzalez’s managerial style doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, either. I don’t think they are good enough to win the division, but I currently see them finishing second and securing a spot in the new one-game Wild Card playoff.

  1. yankeesfanlen - Mar 29, 2012 at 10:15 AM

    Is Craig trying to have some “emotional detachment” from the Braves, D.J?

  2. bravojawja - Mar 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

    I don’t know what to think of this team, which is a little weird since it’s essentially the same team as last March and I figured they’d win the Wild Card, which they almost did. Maybe we’ll get the second WC this go round, assuming nearly everything DJ and the Braves’ front office is assuming will happen will actually happen.

    But that’s a whole buncha if‘s. The Braves need a left fielder and a shortstop but couldn’t or wouldn’t find either this offseason, and that’s going to be this team’s Achilles’ heel. Or, more to the point, Chipper’s knees.

  3. hasbeen5 - Mar 29, 2012 at 10:22 AM

    “Fredi Gonzalez’s managerial style doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, either.”

    Imagine what that sentence would have said had Craig written this post.

  4. Old Gator - Mar 29, 2012 at 10:24 AM

    “Staying healthy” is always a risky way to project a finish. Though I project the Feesh to be a lot better than they were last season, I think that, since they have as many key breakdown threats going for them as the Bravos, they will be neck and neck with them most of the season – and may the last man not limping or icing his shoulder with the iceberg that sank the Titanic in September make the difference.

    As far as the manager, it’s true, Fat Fredi is pretty boring and always seems one play behind the curve. On the other hand, he’s not a slobbering, incoherent, loudmouthed, gutter-vulgar ongoing embarrassment. Six of one….

    • hasbeen5 - Mar 29, 2012 at 10:37 AM

      But if you had to bet on one of them losing a game because he sac bunted with his cleanup hitter while the pitcher was batting fifth and Eric Hinske had been used to pinch run 2 innings ago, who would you take?

      • Old Gator - Mar 29, 2012 at 10:49 AM

        The other one. In that particular situation.

        Don’t forget that we had Fat Fredi weighing down one end of our bench in Macondo for a year and change, too. We lost our share of games because, mostly, of what he didn’t do rather than because of what he did – failed to remove a struggling reliever when he came up to bat, quotidian stuff like that.

        So although I hate to default to the keynote again, I think it’s just a matter of which manager manages to get sick at the most critical time. It has to be an illness. Unfortunately for both teams, managers can bungle right on through their injuries – “bungling hurt,” I think it’s called….

      • cltjump - Mar 29, 2012 at 2:21 PM

        So true. So freaking obnoxiously, nerve-rackingly, off-pissingly true.

  5. skids003 - Mar 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

    Whoever stays the healthiest will win the dvision, second healthiest finish second, so on.

  6. cltjump - Mar 29, 2012 at 2:18 PM

    I just remembered, I haven’t paid a visit to a certain fine website since the end of last season…. I wonder if firefredi.com is still up…
    God, he’s just such a terrible manager. He probably dreamed of hitting the World Series-winning sacrifice bunt when he was a kid.

  7. foreverchipper10 - Mar 29, 2012 at 2:30 PM

    Please please pretty please let all go as planned.

    • cltjump - Mar 29, 2012 at 5:09 PM

      With a cherry on top, natch,

  8. buffalomafia - Mar 29, 2012 at 5:49 PM

    What about Atlanta’s cheap ownership who should be in pursuit of a new third baseman like David Wright! The Braves had all off season to do this.

    Chipper is HOF bound but can’t be dependable!

    Also the Braves don’t have any speed on basis. They were bottom of league for steals.

    Plus a couple pitchers have bad arms from last year????

    If you want to beat Phillies then get a thirdbase man.

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