Mar 30, 2012, 9:30 PM EDT
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2012 season. Up next: The New York Mets.
The Big Question: How long will the Mets spend in baseball purgatory?
How much hope can there be for a team who is coming off three straight losing seasons, slashed payroll by a record amount and let their best player, Jose Reyes, sign with a division rival? Not a whole lot. The Marlins and Nationals are on the rise while the Braves are bringing back most of the same players and the Phillies still have “The Big Three.” Realistically, finishing in fourth place would be both a surprise and a significant accomplishment.
Most Mets fans have resigned themselves to this gloomy short-term fate, but this month’s settlement with Irving Picard in the Madoff case has at least changed the tone a little. The Mets’ owners were also able to close sales of 12 minority shares in the team, repaying loans to MLB and Bank of America in the process. The focus is back on the players on the field for the most part. However, this infusion of cash doesn’t mean the Mets will sign Cole Hamels or Matt Cain next winter. The intention was to cover team debt and operating expenses (or losses). And with expectations pretty low, attendance is likely to suffer once again. There’s also the team’s annual interest bond payments on Citi Field. I’ll admit there’s a lot we don’t know about their situation — for instance, what impact will the Dodgers’ sale have on their ability to refinance? — but it doesn’t look like the Mets’ owners are out of the woods yet.
I don’t think that the Mets need a mega payroll to contend again, but Sandy Alderson’s flexibility figures to be limited in the short-term. Johan Santana and Jason Bay are still owed a total of $90 million on their contracts. That’s a tremendous amount of payroll dedicated to just two players, so it’s unlikely they will make any major signings until those players are officially off the books. Of course, doling out massive long-term contracts is what got them into this mess in the first place.
The Mets will probably remain in this weird state of baseball purgatory until around 2014, but this is still a very important period of evaluation for the on-field product. This is the time to find out whether homegrown players like Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese and Josh Thole will play significant roles on the next contending team in Queens. With top prospects like Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jeurys Familia inching closer to the big leagues, the Mets may actually have a pretty good (and cheap) core for the future.
What else is going on?
- The Mets altered the dimensions and heights of the fences at Citi Field over the winter in an effort to make the park play more neutral. David Wright‘s old sweet spot in right-center field was moved in by 17 feet while Jason Bay will no longer have to put up with the 16-foot high “Great Wall of Flushing” in left field. I’ve heard the argument that Mets’ hitters will get a psychological lift with the changes and I suppose that’s true to a certain degree, but I’m not sure that gives them any real advantage. If the Mets’ pitching is bad and the opposing hitters are better, well, it doesn’t matter where the fences are.
- I wouldn’t have believed this if you had told me even a month ago, but it appears Johan Santana will take the ball on Opening Day. While his velocity was down in his most recent outing, the rehabbing southpaw has a 3.44 ERA and 13/7 K/BB ratio over 18 1/3 inning this spring and hasn’t had any setbacks with his surgically repaired shoulder. He probably isn’t anything more than a six- or seven-inning pitcher right now, but it would be a huge boost if he could make even 20-25 starts.
- You know how Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez were discussed as trade possibilities last year? Now it’s David Wright’s turn. The only difference is that it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to deal him. At least right now. Wright can void his $16 million option for 2013 in the event of a trade while the new CBA stipulates that the acquiring team would not be able to offer him arbitration as a free agent. However, if the Mets pick up the option and trade him next offseason, the acquiring team would be able to offer him arbitration since he would spend the full season with his new club. In other words, don’t look for a trade unless the Mets are blown away by a desperate contender. I still think there’s a chance the Mets will keep him for the long haul, though.
- The bullpen was the only area of the team that was improved over the winter. Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch were added as free agents while Ramon Ramirez was acquired from the Giants in the Angel Pagan deal. Francisco has looked terrible this spring and Rauch is on the decline, but they should be better than a group which was 28th in the majors last year with a 4.33 ERA and was a complete disaster after the All-Star break.
- R.A. Dickey. That’s all.
How are they gonna do?
Oddly, for a team that is projected to finish last by nearly every baseball writer out there, the Mets entered camp with every spot in the lineup and rotation pretty much settled. The big issue, aside from a very shaky defense, is that they have little-to-no depth beyond those projected starters, especially in regard to the rotation. The Mets actually look like a pretty respectable team at the moment, but injuries at key positions could set them back in a big way. And I don’t think they have the reinforcements to compete in an improved division. I’m predicting 70-74 wins and a last-place finish.
Jun 30, 2015, 9:25 AM EDT
And Chris Young was not too pleased about it.
Jun 30, 2015, 8:51 AM EDT
It goes far, far deeper than you ever could’ve imagined.
Jun 30, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
One he gets past 45 pitches he turns every opposing hitter into Lou Gehrig.
Jun 30, 2015, 7:32 AM EDT
Mike Trout put on a clinic against the Yankees last night.
Jun 30, 2015, 12:23 AM EDT
We often take intentional walks for granted. Four tosses to the catcher. How hard can it be? Pretty hard, at least sometimes.
Jun 29, 2015, 11:45 PM EDT
Hamilton now has 40 stolen bases on the year, which is more than 15 MLB teams. You are reading that correctly.
Jun 29, 2015, 9:58 PM EDT
You’ve probably heard this advice for hitting knuckleballers before: If it’s low, let it go. If it’s high, let it fly. Well, Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval took that to the extreme tonight against R.A. Dickey of the Blue Jays…
Jun 29, 2015, 9:09 PM EDT
Of course that happened.
Jun 29, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
Brewers outfielder Khris Davis needed surgery about a month ago for a torn meniscus in his right knee.
Jun 29, 2015, 8:09 PM EDT
It was reported over the weekend that the Dodgers and Cubs were among the teams with interest in a trade for Mets left-hander Jon Niese.
Jun 29, 2015, 7:28 PM EDT
Ramirez has been cleared to swing a bat and Red Sox manager John Farrell is optimistic that he’ll be able to return during the team’s four-game series in Toronto this week.
Jun 29, 2015, 7:01 PM EDT
Moore had Tommy John surgery last April.
Jun 29, 2015, 6:14 PM EDT
Casilla has mostly played at the Triple-A level for the past two seasons.
Jun 29, 2015, 5:40 PM EDT
Cron hit well at Triple-A, batting .323 with six homers and a 1.014 OPS.
Jun 29, 2015, 5:30 PM EDT
It’ll only cost you a cool $3.8 million.
Jun 29, 2015, 5:03 PM EDT
More bad health news for a guy who has had his fair share of it in his brief career.
Jun 29, 2015, 4:35 PM EDT
As of now, Ruben Amaro is in control here, in the White House. Er, I mean in the Phillies’ front office.
Jun 29, 2015, 3:50 PM EDT
Six of the eight spots seem all but settled.
Jun 29, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
By this time next week we may have an actually acceptable All-Star squad for the Junior Circuit.
Jun 29, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
I know which one I’d choose, but then again I’m biased on the subject.
- CC Sabathia looks like a reliever 9
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 27
- AL All-Star voting update: now “only” five Royals in the starting lineup 59
- Andy MacPhail introduced by the Phillies. And the first topic of conversation is sabermetrics 19
- What a world: Orioles are in first place and Ubaldo Jimenez has been their ace 16
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results 99
- Steven Matz stellar on the mound — and at the plate — in his major league debut for the Mets 19
- The 2015 Gillette Home Run Derby will have a new format 34
- With the same-sex marriage decision, the San Francisco Giants get another big win (275)
- Joe Maddon is the latest manager to rip instant replay. He’s got a point. (108)
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights (79)
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (75)