IP: 6 – under
H: 3 – even
R: 1 – even
BB: 2 – over
K: 2 – under

Say that the average guy in the lineup expects to hit .200 against Weaver. Ignore variation around this average (it won’t make a huge difference). Say that Weaver faces 30 batters (enough to complete a no-hitter while allowing for 3 baserunners due to walks and errors). Assume that every batter is an independent event (meaning that what happens with any one batter has no effect on any of the others). Then the odds of Weaver throwing a no-hitter are (1-0.2)^30 = 0.0012, or 1.2 in 1000.

So 1000:1 isn’t actually too low, as another commenter suggested; it’s close to spot on. The reason back-to-back no hitters haven’t been thrown in 70 years is basically that you have to throw one no hitter before you can throw a second consecutive one, which multiplies the odds. If the odds of throwing one no hitter are x to 1, then the odds of throwing two consecutive ones are x-squared to 1, assuming they’re independent equiprobable events. Which is probably worse than a million to one in most cases. But Weaver’s already thrown one no hitter; he’s halfway home.

And tonight is probably about as good as odds of a second consecutive no-hitter ever get: a difficult-to-hit pitcher with good control (reducing the number of hitters he’ll likely have to face), who’s already thrown one no-hitter, facing a weak lineup. If he was facing a lineup expected to hit, say, .250 off him, his odds would be more like 1 in 10,000 tonight.

Specifically, the further away (in time) you get from an unlikely random occurrence, the more likely it becomes that it will happen again.

Add to that the fact that the one guy who did accomplish back-to-back no-no’s (Vander Meer) was very good, but probably not quite as good when he turned the double-trick as Weaver is now and we are staring at a possible, though not probable outcome.

BTW, The Boston Bees (Braves) were offensively inept (54 HR, 561 R, 250 AVG, .642 OPS) – but somehow managed to finish 2 games above .500.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BSN/1938.shtml

Vander Meer’s second victim, the Brooklyn Dodgers, weren’t much better with the wood (61HR, 704 R, .257 AVG, .701 OPS), finishing 11 Games under .500.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BRO/1938.shtml

The 2012 Twins have been to this point, arguably WORSE than Vander Meers two victims: .237 AVG, .658 OPS while on pace to hit 96 HR yet score just 552 Runs.

So again, MP’s speculation is not unwarranted, though still improbable.

Incidentally, Vander Meer 3-Hit the Giants in the game just prior to the first no-hitter and threw a 4-hitter against Boston in the game after his second no hitter against Brooklyn.

The No-Hitters came during a streak of 6 Consecutive Complete Games in which Vander Meer issued a total of 4 Earned Runs on 17 Hits, 35 K’s and 24 BB’s in 55 Innings!

The knock on Vander Meer? He walked A LOT of batters. And in that Brooklyn no-no, he issued 8 free passes against 7 K’s.

It’s hard to envision Weaver being so generous with Walks to the Twins.

Just wanted to get that out there in advance.

I’ll set these:

IP: 7
H: 3
R: 1
BB: 1
K: 8

Get your bets posted!