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Great Moments in Prognosticating

May 15, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT

Tweet from’s Bill Ladson, just before the Padres-Nationals game got underway:

Tweet from’s Bill Ladson, just after the top half of the first ended:


Strasburg allowed three runs on three hits in that inning. Indeed, the first batter he faced, Will Venable, hit a double. He added a triple his second time at bat.

This isn’t intended as a slap at Ladson. But it is why, when people ask me why HBT doesn’t do more look-aheads to the day’s action, make predictions or do things like “keys to the game” posts, I look at them like they’re crazy.

It’s baseball. If you want to hear talking heads talk the hell out of upcoming games tune in to an NFL pregame show. You can’t predict baseball.  Too many variables. Too many games. Almost nothing in the way of an effective, team-based before-the-fact strategy.

  1. gosport474 - May 15, 2012 at 2:05 PM

    Thank God there is no pre-game hype and three hours of analysis before and after each game in baseball.

    • dowhatifeellike - May 15, 2012 at 2:09 PM

      MASN tries really hard. The thirty minutes before an O’s game is a block of 4 minutes of commercials, 2 minutes of talk, [repeat 5 times].

      • DJ MC - May 15, 2012 at 4:39 PM

        Seems more like an acknowledgement that there isn’t that much to talk about. Then again, when you have Rick Dempsey doing the analyzing, do you really want much more?

  2. Old Gator - May 15, 2012 at 2:07 PM

    I agree. It’s much better to post to Circling the Bases when a no-hitter ends and pat myself on the back for having known all along that it was gonna happen. As Karellan pointed out, time and the universe are circular, so I had always already sat through it.

  3. philly56 - May 15, 2012 at 2:13 PM

    Bill must have only run 50,000 computer simulations beforehand. What an idiot!!

    • Old Gator - May 15, 2012 at 6:54 PM

      And in the process, skipped right over an even integer of π without noticing it.

  4. frankvzappa - May 15, 2012 at 2:16 PM

    Must have been some sort of conspiracy. Pretty sure Strasburg and Ladson were both in on it.

  5. Chip Caray's Eyebrows - May 15, 2012 at 2:22 PM

    Anthony Bass has a no-hitter working through three innings for the Padres. Maybe Ladson just got a signal crossed somewhere.

    • Chip Caray's Eyebrows - May 15, 2012 at 2:25 PM

      Ha … that didn’t last long.

  6. infante8523 - May 15, 2012 at 2:25 PM

    I love baseball but I love football way more. There is a reason why there aren’t three hour long pre & post game shows….not enough people care that much and would watch it. There are enough NFL fans that care that much so they do it.


    • nategearhart - May 15, 2012 at 4:06 PM

      You’ve taken a poll, have you? Next time you’re out, ask the football fans if they’d tune in 162 times in one season.

    • pharmerbrown - May 15, 2012 at 6:29 PM

      What nategearhart said, plus this… On a Sunday, the last game I was was usually 4 days ago (Monday) for the NFL. Last time I saw the Yanks… yesterday. Next time… tonight. Time after that… you guessed it, tomorrow. I hope to have not forgotten the game I saw yesterday today. But if I did, there’s always ATH.

  7. cleverbob - May 15, 2012 at 2:48 PM

    I guess if you’re going to make predictions they might as well be wild-eyed and fantastically unlikely. Not that Strasburg isn’t capable of doing it at some point in his career, but you might as well try to predict a hole in one…

    • b7p19 - May 15, 2012 at 4:26 PM

      If you’re gonna predict a no hitter, predicting it against the Padres is a pretty solid strategy. Or the Twins I guess, right Matthew?

  8. dondada10 - May 15, 2012 at 2:54 PM

    Yeah, guy shot a dud. But if Strasburg ended up throwing a no-hitter, Ladson would’ve won the internet for the month of May.

  9. jimbo1949 - May 15, 2012 at 3:02 PM

    “Indeed, the first batter he faced, Will Venable, hit a double.”
    In all fairness three fielders pulled an Alphonse and Gaston on a routine pop up while Venable hustled into second. Not an auspicious beginning. Don’t think the rain delay helped any.

  10. mungman69 - May 15, 2012 at 3:27 PM

    Aw, com’ on: football has 3 hour pre game shows cause they only play one game a week.

    If you look at it, each sport has about the same amount of pre game hours per week.

    Damn’ it scares me when I make so much sense!

    • b7p19 - May 15, 2012 at 4:28 PM

      Take a page from young Harper and act like you’ve been there before or you’ll have old school commenters throwing fastballs in your earholes next time.

  11. baseballisboring - May 15, 2012 at 4:01 PM

    He could’ve at least aimed a little lower and said “This is the day he throws a shutout” or something. I mean, the no-hitter thing was pretty unlikely…

  12. baseballisboring - May 15, 2012 at 4:04 PM

    And this is a huge part of what makes baseball better than everything, and everyone.

  13. dawgpoundmember - May 15, 2012 at 9:37 PM

    It is stupid to do a pre game on baseball because a pitcher can have a no hitter going with 2 out bottom 9 with a runner on and missing his pitch by 2 inches could be the difference between walk off or being in the same company as Nolan Ryan. A QB has much more room for error.

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