Comments on: Michael Young: statistical visionary

By: davidpom50

davidpom50 — Thu, 17 May 2012 15:57:26 +0000

ISVT!! I miss ISVT.

By: spindervish

spindervish — Wed, 16 May 2012 23:30:48 +0000

My goodness…talk about purple.

You should have led off with “It was a dark and stormy night…”

By: spudchukar

spudchukar — Wed, 16 May 2012 22:59:04 +0000

I have been an ardent defender of Michael Young before, but that argument is of another ilk. This time his opinion is flat out brilliant. Woe be the days that I have lamented the bullshit “slump” categorization, as if it were some version of an MLB black hole or worse an ill-begotten purgatory.

Sure the lack of production can become more than just the inability to exercise the desired results an athlete attempts, but far too often players, coaches, fans and media persona jump onto the “slump” bandwagon. And belief in some paranormal matrix where nothing less than divine intervention will extract those who befall the inexorable depths of hitlessness is downright silly.

Good for Young to offer if nothing else than a different take, because belief in the nonsense that the “gods have turned against you” does nothing but perpetuate the myth that failure has an origin that lies outside one’s own capabilities.

By: Gamera the Brave

Gamera the Brave — Wed, 16 May 2012 20:06:38 +0000

Mitzvah,
You just gave me so many I.V. flashbacks I can’t even count them. Hell, I can hardly even remember them.

IV Foot Patrol, ISVT, Goleta Beach… Ahhhhhhhhh…
Got to play the carillon up at the top of Storke Tower once – played “Chopsticks”…

By: WhenMattStairsIsKing

WhenMattStairsIsKing — Wed, 16 May 2012 19:45:23 +0000

I think this is a fresh mindset, as opposed to the self-defeat so many other players likely go through during so-called slumps. Can’t really knock him here.

By: tanstaafl48

tanstaafl48 — Wed, 16 May 2012 19:31:43 +0000

“This stuff isn’t magic. There is no whammy. Stuff just evens out over time. Unless you think Michael Young was really a .400 hitter, that’s all that’s going on with him here, even if you want to call it a slump and he doesn’t.”

Careful now. That’s real close to Gambler’s Logic (the concept that if .400 was lucky we’d expect a symmetrically unlucky streak to “balance it out”).

Which is just as much of an error as the “hot hand” thing: If a true .300 hitter happens to have a .400 streak the best guess for the average over the course of the rest of his career is… .300. Yeah it will “even out” eventually, but in the sense that the larger sample of .300 will swamp out the effect of the smaller sample of .400, not in the sense that we’d expect an equivalent slump.

By: natstowngreg

natstowngreg — Wed, 16 May 2012 17:51:59 +0000

It is. There’s an irrational human tendency to assume that a current trend will continue forever.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Wed, 16 May 2012 17:15:04 +0000

In Young’s defense, he isn’t the one driving the intangibles bus…that is driven by a large group of media fan boys.

By: kopy

kopy — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:52:35 +0000

One would assume that a career .295 hitter would have a 29.5% chance of getting a hit and breaking out of a slump. But, if he has a slump, he might become a career .290 hitter, and decrease the odds of getting a hit in an at-bat.

By: trevorb06

trevorb06 — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:52:30 +0000

Young DOES make a somewhat good point about how past statistics aren’t a great way to judge the future, but this isn’t a roulette table, there is a human element. If a player ages poorly and his numbers start to dip, one can generally assume that’s going to be the new ‘normal’ for the player, but I do agree if a player that is usually playing at a high level isn’t hitting well for a week that it should be assumed he’ll continue that into the next week (barring an injury).

Speaking of roulette, I just love seeing those guys who put all their money on black after 8 straight reds have been rolled. Because, you know, it’s no longer 50/50 odds at that point.

By: ezthinking

ezthinking — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:42:03 +0000

All of you do realize that Young is not 0 for his last 32 right?

He is a pathetic 5 for his last 35, or .143.

By: koufaxmitzvah

koufaxmitzvah — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:39:35 +0000

U Can Stay Buzzed forever.

By: davidpom50

davidpom50 — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:36:39 +0000

I’ve always had an irrational love of Michael Young because he’s a fellow Gaucho. Barry Zito & Skip Schumacher, too. Thanks for leading me to reminisce about my college days.

By: davidpom50

davidpom50 — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:34:03 +0000

A 50 Cent song once said “I love you like a fat kid loves cake.” Does that count?

By: pharmerbrown

pharmerbrown — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:30:37 +0000

There is a berry farm by me here in Jersey, called Emery’s (If you are in/ near Philly and go to the shore, listen up). They have this pie, called the Trifecta. Peach, blueberry (they are a blueberry farm, so they blues are great), cherry. One nice scoop of Haagen Dazs Vanilla bean, and you’ll get laid. Add a little CoolWhip, you won’t even want to.

By: El Bravo

El Bravo — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:29:35 +0000

The NATO protesters agree with me. Pie rulz

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/05/16/clowns-plan-to-protest-during-nato-summit/#.T7POHODUNxk.facebook

By: Jonny 5

Jonny 5 — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:15:16 +0000

And you will lose. See truth and rationality will always beat fallacies spoken by the irrational. Pie is in fact far superior to cake. Would a rock and roll song EVER compare a beautiful and sexy woman to cake of any flavor? Case closed.

By: itsmekirill

itsmekirill — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:11:44 +0000

If you are 0 for your last 32, you probably ARE more likely to make an out in your next at-bat than if you are 10 for your last 32. A .300 hitter only has a 0.001% chance of starting an 0 for 32 slump in any given at bat if it were completely random. But stuff like being tired, being sick, or just being “off” does play into it and makes it more likely, just not to the extent most people think.

By: kopy

kopy — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:52:40 +0000

Maybe it’s just society.

By: koufaxmitzvah

koufaxmitzvah — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:51:22 +0000

Dude is a Gaucho. Dude doesn’t slump. Dude may take some time to make it, like spending 7 years at a university that has its own beach and a town of over 20,000 students jam packed in less than one square mile, almost all of whom live in slumlike conditions for exhorbitant rent. Of course, Isla Vista ain’t what it used to be. Before the State placed a sheriff’s station on campus, Isla Vista was kept in order by the IV Foot Patrol, which happened to be 7 dudes on bikes. Yes, this Gaucho Dude abides. 0-32 is a bit of a hassle, it may even grate the nerves. But, it’s all a mind game, man. Sleep it off. Smoke it off. Take classes off. Go Gauchos.

By: The Common Man

The Common Man — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:49:45 +0000

I will fight you, sir.

By: El Bravo

El Bravo — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:47:04 +0000

Statistically, pie > cake.

By: The Baseball Cube

The Baseball Cube — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:41:12 +0000

Though an 0/32 is indeed a slump, Young can safely say that the 0/32 has nothing to do with the next game and theoretically and statisticall it does not but emotionally (reality) it does in that it can add pressure and force a player to start batting outside his comfort zone, especially if his job is at risk. (I.e. Adam Lind with Vlad Guerrero on his tail)

By: bcopus

bcopus — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:39:31 +0000

I’m shocked. That concept is difficult enough for regular people, let alone someone who makes their living being rife with “intangibles”.