Comments on: The Orioles are on the verge of signing Adam Jones to a long term deal

By: phillyphreak

phillyphreak — Fri, 25 May 2012 23:29:28 +0000

The only issue with that is that no defensive metrics are perfect even if there is three years of data.

By: skeleteeth

skeleteeth — Fri, 25 May 2012 20:36:56 +0000

@paperlions

That would be nice and I hope it happens and Jones turns into everything he was supposed to be for the Orioles. But I’m with you, 100%, that this year does not warrant an extension of such magnitude. He is not Tulo, Longoria, Weaver no matter how many eggs B-more puts in that basket.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 19:09:35 +0000

Oh, I could argue easily….feel free to check DRS or UZR, each of which show Jones to be a below average CF.

By: madhatternalice

madhatternalice — Fri, 25 May 2012 18:27:03 +0000

“You might want to use some 21st century stats….VORP? Seriously? Who still calculates that?”

Translation: “I can’t argue against any of the data you provided, and since it makes my point incorrect, I’ll just nitpick.”

The best of all internet comment responses!

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 18:19:31 +0000

Yeah, hate ‘em….hate hate hate ‘em. /sarcasm

I root for every AL east team not in NY or Boston (I dream of a Yankeeless and Red Soxless playoffs)….but those casual interests don’t mean I will ignore facts

By: phillyphreak

phillyphreak — Fri, 25 May 2012 18:16:47 +0000

Paper, BP still calculates VORP on all of their player pages. Not in heavy use in analysis but still.

That aside BP also ranks Jones as a pretty darn good CF (see RJ Anderson’s transaction analysis column of this signing).

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 18:10:54 +0000

You might want to use some 21st century stats….VORP? Seriously? Who still calculates that?

By: Future of Fantasy

Future of Fantasy — Fri, 25 May 2012 17:43:18 +0000

Most Orioles seem to be happy about this. So, despite the stats, this is probably an alright deal. Sometimes you have to overpay for fan favorites.

By: bmorelikeme

bmorelikeme — Fri, 25 May 2012 17:41:42 +0000

Paperlions, you really seem to hate the Orioles.

By: madhatternalice

madhatternalice — Fri, 25 May 2012 17:30:52 +0000

I’ll give him a hand:

2012
Range Factor 2.84 (first among MLB CFs)
Double Plays 0 (tied for third among MLB CFs)
VORP 17

2011
Range Factor 2.67 (second among MLB CFs)
Double Plays 5 (tied for second among MLB CFs)
VORP 39.5

2010
Range Factor 2.91 (first among MLB CFs)
Double Plays 6 (tied for first among MLB CFs)
VORP 23.2

So, what does this tell us? That Adam Jones plays a mean CF and has for a few years now. MATH!

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 17:15:27 +0000

Because Markakis’ range has been below average for several years now. Outfield assists are nice, but every ball a RF doesn’t get to is a hit (usually an XBH), and the balls he fails to turn into outs that an average RF does turn into out outweigh the few extra assists he puts up each year.

By: Loose Changeup

Loose Changeup — Fri, 25 May 2012 17:04:02 +0000

Really? Nick is often at or near the top of the list in outfield assists. He made zero errors in 2011. How is his gold glove a joke?

Oh, his range factor is low. But look who plays next to him in CF.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 16:47:22 +0000

In Bautista’s case there were documented and publicized mechanical adjustments he made to his swing and to his approach at the plate, resulting in more patience and power (his walk rate went up significantly, and his strikeout rate went down significantly, providing evidence of change in his approach above and beyond the power numbers and anecdotes about mechanical adjustments)…..perhaps Jones has also made some adjustments, but I haven’t heard mention of such a thing, and they are not reflected in his baseline numbers…just looks like an unsustainable HR/FB ratio.

By: bmorelikeme

bmorelikeme — Fri, 25 May 2012 16:46:16 +0000

Yes there is obvious risk, but there is the flip side to you Vernon Wells argument. He could develop into a perennial allstar. He is still only 26, and plays in a game where the consensus prime 27-33ish.

The alternative is to let him walk/trade him and hope that whatever replacements you come up with can replicate his production. I for one am glad that the O’s have shown a commitment to winning with their current core for once. Also, its not my money.

By: randygnyc

randygnyc — Fri, 25 May 2012 16:24:10 +0000

It is possible to get better. It’s the exception, not the rule, though. For whatever reason, I guy like Jose Bautista has gone from average to great. Why? Im not sure, but he has, so it’s possible.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 16:20:15 +0000

It isn’t a question of understanding the signing, it is a question of thinking the signing will be a good one or not. We don’t know the numbers (years or dollars), so it can’t be judged at this point, but if this turns out to be $100M deal for a player like Jones…it’ll probably be a bad signing (whether we understand why the Orioles do it or not).

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 16:18:12 +0000

Ryan Zimmerman (27): 30.7 WAR, 118 wRC+

Adam Jones (26): 12 .0 WAR, 103 wRC+

By: Ben

Ben — Fri, 25 May 2012 16:14:56 +0000

That’s funny. Gold Glove winners are often amongst the worst defenders in baseball. For example, Nick Markakis. The Gold Glove is a joke.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:58:22 +0000

Wells is 33 right now. He signed his deal after 2006…when he was just about to turn 28….essentially, one year older than Jones is right now.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:54:45 +0000

Being the same for 4 years and then suddenly having a jump in performance is more indicative of a SSS effect than steady improvement.

Again, the underlying numbers indicate he isn’t doing anything different…do you really expect him to hit 48 HRs/year with 40 2Bs from here on out?

By: dunnd4d4

dunnd4d4 — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:48:57 +0000

Ben “His defense has been below average for years” He is a gold glove winner…..

By: dunnd4d4

dunnd4d4 — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:46:59 +0000

Let me help you guys that don’t understand this signing. First of all the orioles are not as small to mid market as you think they are. Angelos has money. He owns TV rights to two franchises. Had the orioles gotten off to a bad start Jones would have been gone by july however their hot start has forced their hand, and made them have to sign Jones. If they would have let him walk like they did Mussina the city would have been furious. The orioles for 15 years have lacked something that Boston and New York both had, which was a captain and vocal leader. They have found theirs, and he just so happens to be a power hitting gold glove cf. Anyone who watches the orioles can see the way Adam has grown into the leader his is, and have watched as he adjusted and doesn’t swing on the low and away sliders anymore. If you don’t understand this signing your not from Baltimore. Kudos to Adam Jones and the rest of the O’s for forcing Angelos to sign him. Now go get oswalt and lets go to the playoffs.

By: tcostant

tcostant — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:37:14 +0000

If he doesn’t get, at least, what Ryan Zimmerman got from the Nationals in March then his agent isn’t paying attention. Both were two season away from free agency and Jones is playing much better. At least $100M or no deal.

By: edgarallan926

edgarallan926 — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:31:40 +0000

Is it fair to assume he’s reached his peak?? He turns 27 this year and the O’s will probably sign him to a 5-6 yr deal at under $100 million. If he averages .285/22/85 in those years while still maintaining Gold Glove defense and being a clubhouse leader how would he not be worth that?? If he has a few outlier years above or below those numbers then he would still be performing at a higher level than most of the CF’s in the league at under $20 million per.

And agreed regarding Vernon Wells but he signed his deal when he was 32. That was just dumb on the Angels’ parts.

By: Ben

Ben — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:27:06 +0000

I know I’m going to get downrated because it seems like this thread is one huge lovefest for the Orioles and Adam Jones, but I don’t really get this, in the abstract.
The way small to mid-market teams succeed is through drafting and player development, not huge deals. Now, there has to be a happy medium between, say, the Athletics, who let anyone with a major-league pulse go for prospects, and the Twins who have seen their biggest signings hobble the team for the foreseeable future. But I don’t see what the Orioles gain here.
Jones is off to an awesome start, the Orioles are unexpectedly contenders, which is awesome, but that doesn’t mean they should mortgage the future. The fact is that Jones could end up more like Vernon wells than Curtis Granderson. His defense has been below average for years, his walk rate is minuscule. The only difference in his numbers I see is a HR/FB rate that has spiked from 16% to 25.9%. He’s hitting the ball HARD though.
I’m a believer to some extent, but I’m not a believer to the tune of 6 years, 105 million, or whatever.

By: Ben

Ben — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:14:51 +0000

It could also cripple a lot of small-to-mid market teams. See for example, the Twins.

By: ravensgrl

ravensgrl — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:03:24 +0000

Rather than looking at the 4 years as an average, look at his yearly performance and compare his year to year statistics. He’s stayed consistent or improved in all of the statistics you listed above.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Fri, 25 May 2012 14:48:31 +0000

It’s called data. Freely available on line. Jones is nothing like a “top 3 defensive CF in the game”….feel free to provide evidence.

By: rockthered1286

rockthered1286 — Fri, 25 May 2012 14:20:48 +0000

What it comes down to for me is the O’s taking care of their players FIRST. If you want to begin the process of actually attracting FA’s, they need to see something like this happen. How attractive is Baltimore right now? Not at all, nor has it been for years. But to see the O’s lock up guys like Jones, Markakis, Hardy, hopefully Weiters soon, shows some of these FA’s we are serious about becoming a contender, which generates slightly more interest. Is there a possiblity Jones drops off? Of course, just like there is with every player in the entire league. Hell, look at Pujols. Who ever thought he’d drop off this much? (between Wells, Hunter and Pujols maybe it’s the Angels fault?!) But there’s also the possiblilty he’s coming into his own and will finally mature into the player we’ve hoped he’d become. Think of it this way: say we don’t negotiate or low ball because of his “5 year numbers to date.” Jones laughs it off knowing he’ll get more money this offseason, jumps ship, ends up in NY or Boston, and spends the rest of his career terrorizing the O’s (see Mussina, Mike). It’s a chance we can’t take in Baltimore, and in my opinion, the right move. Lock him up. Show the league we mean business, and hopefully get back to a team that FA’s have interest in (hope Oswalt is reading this). This move is not only good for Jones, but HUGE for the Baltimore Orioles organization and the city.

By: zackattack410

zackattack410 — Fri, 25 May 2012 14:15:32 +0000

Wow dude. What evidence do you have to support your claims? “Jones has been around a while.” LOL.
At 26, Jones is one of the top 3 defensive CFs in the game. Yes he is swinging a hot bat, but Major League history shows that “average” to “above average” hitters become elite at age 27.
Go somewhere else.