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Why do we do predictions again?

Jun 6, 2012, 12:31 PM EDT

crystal ball

This falls into the deep thoughts category, but:

  • The Royals are only a half game behind the Tigers despite having a 12-game losing streak this year;
  • The Pirates are a game up on the Cardinals despite having he worst offense in the National League;
  • The Orioles are three ahead of the Red Sox and a half game up on the Yankees despite being the Orioles;
  • The Nationals, Marlins and Mets are ahead of the Braves and Phillies despite the preseason prognostications of everyone; and
  • The Dodgers are ahead of everyone in baseball despite not having their only legit All-Star for an extended period due to injuries.

Only the AL West is going as roughly expected, and that’s only because the Angels finally woke up in May after the best player in baseball spent a month being the worst player in baseball.

Someone please keep this post handy for next February and March when idiots like me pretend like we know what the hell is going to happen in the upcoming season.

  1. mattyflex - Jun 6, 2012 at 12:43 PM

    If the Royals had went .500 over that 12-game skid, they’d be leading the division. Dang it.

    • Kevin Gillman - Jun 6, 2012 at 1:37 PM

      If the White Sox hadn’t won 9 in a row, the Indians would still be in first place.

      • mattyflex - Jun 6, 2012 at 1:39 PM

        I see your point. Everyone would be on top of their division if they were winning games.

      • Kevin Gillman - Jun 6, 2012 at 2:38 PM

        Yup, I still say the Royals need pitching, but that bullpen has improved. Plus they are just 1/2 game back of 3rd place, and hopefully my Indians do their part tonight and beat them, and your Royals do their part, and win. :)

      • renorocker - Jun 6, 2012 at 2:21 PM

        And if frogs had wings, they wouldn’t bump their behinds every time they jumped.

      • number42is1 - Jun 6, 2012 at 3:07 PM

        if woody had gone to the police this would never have happened

      • Kevin Gillman - Jun 6, 2012 at 3:12 PM

        I would have gotten away with it too, if it wasn’t for these damn kids, and their dog too.

  2. WhenMattStairsIsKing - Jun 6, 2012 at 12:47 PM

    We simplify things in our minds as we wait out the always-too-long offseasons. Then every year, as baseball begins and its season progresses, we realize just how fluid and ever-changing the game and rosters are, and hindsight is always 20/20.

  3. vansloot - Jun 6, 2012 at 12:51 PM

    Because nature abhors a vacuum.

    • Jason @ IIATMS - Jun 6, 2012 at 2:07 PM

      as do I. Just ask my wife.

  4. Jeff J. Snider - Jun 6, 2012 at 12:54 PM

    I assume you meant “only legit offensive All-Star,” because I think it’s generally agreed that Clayton Kershaw is pretty good. (And you might should have thrown an “undisputed” in there, because a pretty decent case can be made for Andre Ethier being a legit All-Star. Not as clear-cut as Kemp and Kershaw, but still.)

  5. Jeremy Fox - Jun 6, 2012 at 1:11 PM

    Ok fair enough. But everyone thought San Diego and Houston would be bad–and they are so far. And as you say, everyone thought the Rangers and Angels would be the class of the AL West–and they are, so far.

    Let’s revisit this post at the end of the season and see if the baseball world still looks as topsy-turvy as it does right now. It’s one thing for the Angels to suck for a month or two, it’s another thing for them to suck for an entire season (not that that couldn’t happen).

    Yep, every year lots of things that everyone thinks will happen, don’t. And lots of things that everyone thinks will happen, do. Which is good. If it was totally predictable, it would be boring. But if it was totally unpredictable, it’d be boring too. Would you watch people guess coin flips? Or play the card game War? Let’s not forget that, without some predictability, there wouldn’t be any great players or great teams (or bad players or bad teams). There’d still be winners and losers, just like there’s a winner and loser in War. But it’s hard to see why anyone would care who the winners and losers are.

  6. florida76 - Jun 6, 2012 at 1:19 PM

    Predictions, data, statistics, projections, are all by-products of technology which isn’t surprising at all. The
    weakness with all this information is the fact sports is played by human beings, and the unpredictability is what makes sports special. At times, data and predictions are like a dog chasing its tail, with graphs and whatnot. Sports will never be a mathematical or predictive enterprise, that’s why they play the games.

    Last season was yet another classic example. The analysis and statistics would have given the Cards a 0.1% chance of winning it all when they trailed badly in the regular season.

  7. vanmorrissey - Jun 6, 2012 at 1:26 PM

    As the saying goes, that’s why they play the games. Makes it more fun for all.

  8. schmedley69 - Jun 6, 2012 at 1:37 PM

    By the same token, it’s also stupid for people to make bold proclamations based on the first 2 months of the season. The media in DC think the Nats have already clinched the division.

    • nolanwiffle - Jun 6, 2012 at 2:43 PM

      I haven’t seen or heard any such proclaimation.

  9. sabathiawouldbegoodattheeighthtoo - Jun 6, 2012 at 1:43 PM

    I wonder what John Sterling would say about all this…

    • yankeesfanlen - Jun 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

      Something in between “You can’t predict baseball” and “Positively Swish-O-Lious”, powered by Jeep.
      Keep your family safe and secure

  10. buffalomafia - Jun 6, 2012 at 1:48 PM

    He is right! Just because a team looks good on paper doesn’t mean they will make playoffs! You still have to produce.

    Also the first month of baseball reporters think just because a team wins a few games they say that team is going to world series! Not true!

    Baseball is played for 6 months before playoffs begin. Look what happened last season?

  11. DJ MC - Jun 6, 2012 at 10:34 PM

    There’s a part of me that wants to get angry over the “despite being the Orioles” comment. Then I just realize that it is exactly the same thing I think every day when I see the standings. So, I guess I’ll just go back to my episode of Don’t Trust The B In Apartment 23.

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