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Johan Santana is an underdog for no-hitter follow-up start

Jun 8, 2012, 1:18 PM EDT

gambling poster

When Johan Santana takes the mound tonight for his no-hitter follow-up start he’ll be coming off back-to-back complete-game shutouts and working on two extra days of rest without a limited pitch count. And he’ll also be an underdog on the road against the Yankees and Hiroki Kuroda.

Las Vegas has set the Yankees as -145 favorites tonight, which means you must bet $145 to win $100 on them and puts their expected winning percentage at 59.2. That also means the Mets are +135 underdogs, which means you can win $135 on a $100 bet and puts their expected winning percentage at 42.5.

So even when the Mets and Yankees have nearly the same record and the Mets have a two-time Cy Young winner on the mound coming off a no-hitter and back-to-back shutouts the Yankees are still solid favorites at home behind a starter with a 4-6 record and 3.82 ERA.

  1. sdelmonte - Jun 8, 2012 at 2:27 PM

    Johan – six innings, followed by the adventure known as the Mets bullpen, as well as the “who’s the shortstop?” roulette wheel.

    The Yankees – A balky starting pitcher and an inconsistent lineup, but Cano and Jeter and a bullpen so good it doesn’t need Mariano Rivera.

    I think the Mets can win two of three. But they could just easily be swept.

    • djpostl - Jun 8, 2012 at 4:29 PM

      That “balky” starter has more QS than C.C. In reality he has had two horrific starts, 2 mediocre ones and eight starts where he allowed 3 ER or less (7 of those allowing 2 ER or less)

  2. kopy - Jun 8, 2012 at 2:28 PM

    Even though I know you already know this Aaron, Vegas had to adjust their line because the Yankees are so popular. Therefore, fans love to bet on them. It also adjusts for the casual fans who don’t realize the Yankees haven’t been great and the Mets are better than expected so far this year. It’s a good opportunity for a serious better to take advantage. Y’know, if it’s worth the loss.

  3. sleepyirv - Jun 8, 2012 at 7:26 PM

    This sort of thing is so annoying because I think, “Wow, what a great line to bet on the Mets! Wait… it’s stupid to ever bet on the outcome of any particular baseball game.”

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