Comments on: Will Middlebrooks has been historically productive

By: wlschneider09

wlschneider09 — Mon, 25 Jun 2012 12:23:36 +0000

Minor league career slash line: .276/.333/.787 over 416 games. 449/128 k/bb ratio, which hasn’t changed in the majors (37/7).

I will now violate HBT commandment #34 (Thou shalt not speak evil of a prospect), but I’ be absolutely shocked if he didn’t regress to numbers around his minor league line. If I owned him in fantasy leagues I’d be selling high.

By: braddavery

braddavery — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 18:32:27 +0000

I don’t see anyone saying he can keep up this pace, so I don’t understand the point of stating that he won’t be able to as if that was a point someone made.

By: sabatimus

sabatimus — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 17:22:13 +0000

So what? He’s only played 40 games. People just LOVE to extrapolate from such a small number. And this is his rookie season–no team has a book on him yet. Once they figure out how to pitch to him, it’ll be up to Middlebrooks to adjust.

This is so early in Middlebrooks’ career that any proclamations about what he will or won’t do later on are really silly. I’m just enjoying the ride.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 17:11:34 +0000

Except, of course, most fantasy leagues are played for real money.

I don’t play fantasy baseball, but do play in 10-12 fantasy football leagues/year, most of which are for non-fantasy money. Over the last 5 years I’ve averaged $400 in winnings after accounting for league fees. I really enjoy FF, so even if it was free that would be a great deal (lots of entertainment/enjoyment at no cost), getting a few bucks on top of that just makes it that much more enjoyable.

By: aceshigh11

aceshigh11 — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 16:30:54 +0000

Hey, nice job! You’re an amazing fantasy GM.

Have fun counting all your fantasy money too, Frodo.

By: yankeehatersaredelusional

yankeehatersaredelusional — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 16:16:31 +0000

I got him on my fantasy team like 5 days after his call-up
Might be in my top 5 greatest pick-ups of all time

By: paperlions

paperlions — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 16:15:50 +0000

But….I thought you didn’t care about numbers (i.e. .300+ avg and 25 HRs/year).

By: NJgriffNC

NJgriffNC — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 16:02:03 +0000

I could not care less about numbers. Watching the kid hit, he has excellent timing and a lot of power with a pretty short explosive swing. Great balance throughout the swing as well. I’m sure major league pitchers will learn how to pitch to Middlebrooks as they get more familiar with him, but I expect a kid with this much talent to be a perennial .300+ / 25HR hitter in this league.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 15:50:21 +0000

He’s right though.

The leader in career BABIP since 2000 (min 2000 PA) is Votto with .358. Only 14 of the 415 players with 2000+ PAs over the last 12 years have a career BABIP over .340. In all likelihood, you can expect at least a 50 pt reduction in BABIP for Middlebrooks and likely something closer to an 70 pt reduction (not necessarily this year, but as a career norm). No one is saying Middlebrooks isn’t very good….but it is unreasonable to expect this level of production to continue when there is so much evidence that it is SSS aided.

By: redguy12588

redguy12588 — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 15:21:43 +0000

Still unsustainable. Good for him that he’s doing well, but he’ll fall back to earth sooner than later.

By: erk877

erk877 — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 15:14:37 +0000

It certainly isn’t, since its actually .392.

By: redguy12588

redguy12588 — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 15:12:24 +0000

His BABIP is hovering around .500. That’s not sustainable.