Comments on: Are we supposed to ignore the Orioles’ run differential?

By: skids003

skids003 — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 20:39:23 +0000

As someone once said, There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. They don’t always tell the whole story.

By: offseasonblues

offseasonblues — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 19:18:11 +0000

“Boston’s run differential was 60 prior to their last series.”
Yeah, thanks for that. [/sarcasm]

I have no idea what to expect from my team anymore this season. Joyous walkoffs and epic meltdowns I guess.

By: mrjavascript

mrjavascript — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 17:41:28 +0000

Eh, take Steve Pearce off your list, he was DFA’d by the Orioles this weekend. Pearce is out of options too, and has to pass through waivers if the O’s want to keep him in the organization. Fingers crossed, he’s a useful player, but I could see an offensively-challenged team like Tampa Bay scooping him up.

By: rockthered1286

rockthered1286 — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 17:15:31 +0000

But if we also take into consideration the fact that the O’s have NOT had a complete product on the field yet, we can explain away their lack of offensive production. Markakis missed a good part of 30 days, Roberts was out 2 months, back one and gone again, Andino’s down for the count, Teagarden (albeit a backup catcher, still he’s better than anything we had for every 4th or 5th game) just got back and we can even go as far as to say Jones’ wrist injury keeping him from some production, have all been contributing factors to this lack of runs on the board. Oh and Mark Reynolds. How could we forget him….

But if you recall, this team in the first month and a half of the season was leading the league in yard bombs, so the potential for putting up runs remains, it’s just a matter of getting a complete team on the field.

I guess for now we have to be patient and deal with a platoon of Avery, Pearce, Flaherty, Betemit and Reynolds. Unfortunately despite the deadline approachign quickly, I don’t see the O’s making any moves given the amount of holes we need to fill and the amount of prospects we won’t give up (and shouldn’t) so unless this bullpen holds up or our offense suddenly awakens? I can foresee a downfall. As long as we stay over .500 it’s a moral victory in this town!!

By: 18thstreet

18thstreet — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 16:34:31 +0000

If you ignore the first inning,* their run differential is plus a zillion.**

* you shouldn’t
** only feels this way

By: proudlycanadian

proudlycanadian — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 15:54:18 +0000

Boston’s run differential was 60 prior to their last series. Not sure what that means regarding the future. Will the differential continue to slip or will Boston start another winning streak commensurate with the +43 run differential?

By: proudlycanadian

proudlycanadian — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 15:50:24 +0000

The Jays have scored 476 runs and have allowed 447 for a differential of 29. On the other hand, they just beat Boston by 28 to 11 over their last 3 games which skews the result.

By: kkolchak

kkolchak — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 15:35:23 +0000

Yep–they actually remind me of the 2005 Nats, whose bullpen, led by All Star closer Chad Cordero, kept them afloat until late july when it all fell apart.

By: offseasonblues

offseasonblues — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 15:21:07 +0000

The Red Sox are on the flip side – under performing their +43 differential, winning blowouts, losing too many close games. Both teams have erratic starting pitching. Both teams have a good bullpen. The Orioles have allowed 439 runs, the Red Sox 436. The difference is that the Sox have a more productive offense, but with an offense that’s as erratic as the starting pitching. It will be interesting to see which team comes closer to their expected W-L numbers at the end of the season.

By: stew37

stew37 — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 15:20:08 +0000

As a Jays fan, I really hope you’re right, because we didn’t count on having to beat out 4 beasts in our division. Like the Yanks, Red Sox, and Tampa aren’t bad enough, now Baltimore has to figure it out?!

By: tomemos

tomemos — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 15:04:24 +0000

That’s part of the point, of course–bullpens are generally pretty inconsistent beasts. If the O’s bullpen is all that stands between them and annihilation, that’s not a good situation to be in.

By: oriolesvsravens

oriolesvsravens — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 15:03:52 +0000

I don’t care. La la la la la! Lets go O’s!

By: bmorelikeme

bmorelikeme — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 14:50:25 +0000

I will say the season is much more enjoyable for us Baltimorons who do ignore it.

By: tomemos

tomemos — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 14:38:43 +0000

Last year the Giants were making people ask, “Does run differential really matter?” They made it to just past the trade deadline before getting exposed.

By: 18thstreet

18thstreet — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 14:30:19 +0000

Long answer: I think blowout wins and losses can skew run differential’s value as a statistic. In a blowout loss, you’re likely to handle the bullpen differently (even using backup infielders to throw an inning) which is likely to cost a extra few runs.

Short answer: No, you can’t just ignore run differential.

By: sdelmonte

sdelmonte — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 14:14:14 +0000

For much of the season, people were making the same exact point about the Mets. There was no way to sustain their good record at that poor run differential. And that was, alas, quite true. I tried to ignore such comments, since I was having fun, but in the end, things usually do have a way of evening out.

That said, the Mets’ bullpen is a farce right now. So it might not be fair to compare their downward spiral and the fate of the O’s.

By: Ben

Ben — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 13:36:18 +0000

Judging the comments here, and the volume of thumbs down received by anyone who points out the run differential problem, yes, Orioles fans would like us to ignore that.