Aug 10, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT
Gregg Doyel has a column up over at CBSSports.com about why he thinks Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer. This part, though, about his CBS colleagues, is interesting to me:
CBSSports.com has seven baseball writers—three with actual HOF votes—and five of the seven said they would vote for Bonds. That’s 71.4 percent in favor of induction, with 75 percent required for admittance.
Again, that’s a small sample size—and here comes an even smaller (but more telling) sample size:
Of our three Hall voters at CBSSports.com—longtime baseball writers Scott Miller, Danny Knobler and Jon Heyman—just one said he’d vote for Bonds. Which one? That’s for him to say, if he chooses. Point being, Bonds’ candidacy is supported primarily by the newer-media bloggers at CBSSports.com, an ominous trend given that most Hall voters are longtime writers from the Miller, Knobler and Heyman mold.
I’m not sure it’s quite so ominous. I agree that the longer-tenured, more established voters are more likely to be anti-Bonds and anti-PED guys in general, and that for that reason he faces a tough road for some time. But time marches on and that electorate is going to change quite a bit in the next 15 years.
And it will be 15 years, because even if Bonds doesn’t get in any time soon, it’s almost certain that he’ll get enough support to remain on the ballot. Mark McGwire does, after all — he has ranged from 19% to 23% in the voting since he’s been on the ballot — and there’s no rational reason anyone who votes for McGwire wouldn’t vote for Bonds.
Add more to Bonds, in fact, because some people who don’t vote for McGwire don’t withhold votes simply because he did PEDs, but rather, because they are the “discounters,” as it were, and simply think that McGwire wouldn’t be in the conversation without PEDs (i.e they discount some credit for is career totals due to PED use). Such voters likely will feel differently about Bonds given what he did before it’s generally accepted that he did PEDs, figuring that even with the discount he’d be a Hall of Famer.
So, that gives you a baseline of, at the very least, 25% or so for Bonds. And I’d bet that he gets something closer to 50% of the vote. Then you add in the demographic shift.
It takes ten years as a BBWAA member to become a Hall of Fame voter. So even if one is just admitted to the BBWAA this year — as we here at NBC are going to attempt to do — Barry Bonds will still be on the Hall of Fame ballot for five years after one is allowed to vote.
Not that it’s just starting now, of course. Younger voters who are more inclined to be open to Bonds’ candidacy — I’d say anyone who began regularly covering baseball in the nineties or later — began being admitted to the BBWAA several years ago and are being given Hall of Fame ballots in greater numbers. Many — especially the web-based members like Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Will Carroll, the Baseball Prospectus guys and the FanGraphs guys — are still several years away. The upshot: between now and the end of Bonds’ theoretically continuing unsuccessful candidacy, there should be a pretty significant shift in the aggregate attitude of the Hall of Fame electorate.
So, yes, Bonds’ odds of being elected are pretty long in the short term. But it would surprise me greatly if Bonds spent 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot without being voted in.
In fact, I’d even offer to eat my hat if I’m wrong, but I’m guessing they will have cured baldness by 2027, so I will no longer have a need for hats.
Apr 28, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
CSNBaltimore.com’s Orioles beat reporter Rich Dubroff on his experience Monday night.
Apr 28, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Returning to Houston as a free agent on a three-year, $23 million contract, Lowrie is off to a very strong start.
Apr 28, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
The fan was taken from Wrigley Field in an ambulance.
Apr 28, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
In calling up Cole for his debut the Nationals bypassed Tanner Roark.
Apr 28, 2015, 9:31 AM EDT
They’re right not to be.
Apr 28, 2015, 8:59 AM EDT
Note to Nori Aoki: if the ball is heading to center field against the Dodgers, you want to get back to the bag more quickly.
Apr 28, 2015, 7:21 AM EDT
The Mets continue to be Amazin’.
Apr 28, 2015, 12:17 AM EDT
Jose Reyes has been trying to play through a small crack in his left rib, but he’ll now get an extended absence.
Apr 27, 2015, 11:01 PM EDT
The Mets are now 15-5 on the young season and already hold an eight-game lead over the Nationals in the National League East.
Apr 27, 2015, 10:03 PM EDT
The Nationals mapped out a plan that could have had Rendon make his season debut as soon as Thursday against the Mets, but that’s on hold for now.
Apr 27, 2015, 9:04 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks are reportedly among the potential landing spots for Saltalamacchia.
Apr 27, 2015, 8:10 PM EDT
Bailey is coming off flexor tendon surgery. Could Tommy John surgery be next?
Apr 27, 2015, 7:24 PM EDT
McCarthy appears headed for season-ending Tommy John surgery.
Apr 27, 2015, 7:20 PM EDT
Adam Ottavino was just named as the Rockies closer two weeks ago, but now he’s headed to the disabled list with right triceps inflammation.
Apr 27, 2015, 6:41 PM EDT
Protests and violence continue in Baltimore after the recent death of 25-year-old Freddie Gray.
Apr 27, 2015, 6:09 PM EDT
Wainwright will undergo season-ending surgery this week.
Apr 27, 2015, 5:40 PM EDT
Scherzer is in the first season of a seven-year, $210 million contract and has pitched very well through four starts with a 1.26 ERA and 29/4 K/BB ratio in 29 innings.
Source: Josh Hamilton rejected a trade to a National League team because he wanted to go back to Texas
Apr 27, 2015, 4:56 PM EDT
Hamilton had a full no-trade clause with the Angels. And he exercised it in an effort to get back to the Rangers.
Apr 27, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT
Pro tip: when you’re trying to sell something, don’t tell all of your potential customers how crappy the thing is and how desperate you are to be rid of it.
Apr 27, 2015, 4:04 PM EDT
This trade rids the Angels of Josh Hamilton, Josh Hamilton of the Angels and give the Rangers a pretty big bargain. Win-win-win?
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 77
- Monday’s White Sox/Orioles game postponed due to ongoing protests and violence in Baltimore 150
- Cardinals confirm Adam Wainwright is done for season with torn Achilles 20
- Source: Josh Hamilton rejected a trade to a National League team because he wanted to go back to Texas 51
- Deal done: Josh Hamilton traded to the Texas Rangers for cash considerations 56
- Pitchers batting is dumb and the DH should be universal 356
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 88
- Alex Rodriguez hits 659th career home run, now one shy of tying Willie Mays 60
- Pitchers batting is dumb and the DH should be universal (356)
- Comment of the Day: do not underestimate the seriousness of the anti-DH crowd (199)
- The early leaders in MLB’s “Franchise Four” thing have been announced (166)
- The Royals and White Sox had a benches-clearing fracas, five players ejected (163)
- Protesters converge on Oriole Park at Camden Yards (149)