Skip to content

Over the long haul, Barry Bonds’ Hall of Fame prospects aren’t that bad

Aug 10, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT

Barry Bonds Convicted Of One Count Of Obstruction Of Justice Getty Images

Gregg Doyel has a column up over at CBSSports.com about why he thinks Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer. This part, though, about his CBS colleagues, is interesting to me:

CBSSports.com has seven baseball writers—three with actual HOF votes—and five of the seven said they would vote for Bonds. That’s 71.4 percent in favor of induction, with 75 percent required for admittance.

Again, that’s a small sample size—and here comes an even smaller (but more telling) sample size:

Of our three Hall voters at CBSSports.com—longtime baseball writers Scott Miller, Danny Knobler and Jon Heyman—just one said he’d vote for Bonds. Which one? That’s for him to say, if he chooses. Point being, Bonds’ candidacy is supported primarily by the newer-media bloggers at CBSSports.com, an ominous trend given that most Hall voters are longtime writers from the Miller, Knobler and Heyman mold.

I’m not sure it’s quite so ominous. I agree that the longer-tenured, more established voters are more likely to be anti-Bonds and anti-PED guys in general, and that for that reason he faces a tough road for some time. But time marches on and that electorate is going to change quite a bit in the next 15 years.

And it will be 15 years, because even if Bonds doesn’t get in any time soon, it’s almost certain that he’ll get enough support to remain on the ballot.  Mark McGwire does, after all — he has ranged from 19% to 23% in the voting since he’s been on the ballot — and there’s no rational reason anyone who votes for McGwire wouldn’t vote for Bonds.

Add more to Bonds, in fact, because some people who don’t vote for McGwire don’t withhold votes simply because he did PEDs, but rather, because they are the “discounters,” as it were, and simply think that McGwire wouldn’t be in the conversation without PEDs (i.e they discount some credit for is career totals due to PED use). Such voters likely will feel differently about Bonds given what he did before it’s generally accepted that he did PEDs, figuring that even with the discount he’d be a Hall of Famer.

So, that gives you a baseline of, at the very least, 25% or so for Bonds. And I’d bet that he gets something closer to 50% of the vote.  Then you add in the demographic shift.

It takes ten years as a BBWAA member to become a Hall of Fame voter. So even if one is just admitted to the BBWAA this year — as we here at NBC are going to attempt to do — Barry Bonds will still be on the Hall of Fame ballot for five years after one is allowed to vote.

Not that it’s just starting now, of course.  Younger voters who are more inclined to be open to Bonds’ candidacy — I’d say anyone who began regularly covering baseball in the nineties or later — began being admitted to the BBWAA several years ago and are being given Hall of Fame ballots in greater numbers. Many — especially the web-based members like Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Will Carroll, the Baseball Prospectus guys and the FanGraphs guys — are still several years away.  The upshot: between now and the end of Bonds’ theoretically continuing unsuccessful candidacy, there should be a pretty significant shift in the aggregate attitude of the Hall of Fame electorate.

So, yes, Bonds’ odds of being elected are pretty long in the short term.  But it would surprise me greatly if Bonds spent 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot without being voted in.

In fact, I’d even offer to eat my hat if I’m wrong, but I’m guessing they will have cured baldness by 2027, so I will no longer have a need for hats.

Latest Posts
  1. Dodgers designate Brandon League for assignment

    Jul 2, 2015, 11:28 PM EDT

    LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 08:  Pitcher Brandon League #43 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on during the game against the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium on April 8, 2015 in Los Angeles, California.  (Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images) Getty Images

    League hasn’t pitched in the majors this season due to a shoulder injury.

  2. Reds GM Walt Jocketty says he’s not trading Todd Frazier

    Jul 2, 2015, 10:39 PM EDT

    PITTSBURGH, PA - JUNE 25:  Todd Frazier #21 of the Cincinnati Reds on deck in the seventh inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on June 25, 2015 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) Getty Images

    The Reds are expected to be sellers, but GM Walt Jocketty said Thursday that third baseman Todd Frazier isn’t going anywhere.

  3. Matt Boyd pulled from start after failing to record an out against the Red Sox

    Jul 2, 2015, 9:23 PM EDT

    TORONTO, CANADA - JULY 2: Matt Boyd #46 of the Toronto Blue Jays reacts after giving up a three-run home run in the first inning during MLB game action to David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox on July 2, 2015 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) Getty Images

    After pitching into the seventh inning in his major league debut against the Rangers last Saturday, Blue Jays left-hander Matt Boyd failed to record an out in his start tonight against the Red Sox.

  4. Freddie Freeman won’t return from wrist injury before All-Star break

    Jul 2, 2015, 8:26 PM EDT

    NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 14:  Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves in action against the New York Mets at Citi Field on June 14, 2015 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. The Mets defeated the Braves 10-8.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) Getty Images

    Freeman hopes to return right after the All-Star break, but he acknowledges that it’s a “best-case scenario.”

  5. Archie Bradley has no structural damage in shoulder

    Jul 2, 2015, 7:28 PM EDT

    Archie Bradley Archie Bradley

    Bradley has been out for a month with right shoulder tendinitis.

  6. Cardinals place Jon Jay on disabled list with nagging wrist injury

    Jul 2, 2015, 6:31 PM EDT

    cD05ODdlNmNhY2MwMjRlZWQzNTJhM2ViYTQ1Y2VlY2YzOCZnPTc3MGY5MjU2OTgyMDlhMTEzNjQwN2M5MDc4NTYyYTMx Getty Images

    Jay has already had one stint on the disabled list this season due to his nagging wrist injury.

  7. The Dodgers sign Trevor Cahill

    Jul 2, 2015, 5:02 PM EDT

    Trevor Cahill AP

    Cahill was designated for assignment by the Braves earlier this month after allowing 23 runs in 26 innings.

  8. Breaking: Cardinals fire their scouting director, likely due to the Astros hacking scandal

    Jul 2, 2015, 4:29 PM EDT

    ST. LOUIS, MO - JUNE 3:  Seats sit empty prior to a game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium on June 3, 2015 in St. Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Michael Thomas/Getty Images) Getty Images

    The director, Chris Correa, has admitted to hacking into the Astros system.

  9. Orioles sign suspended reliever Chris Perez

    Jul 2, 2015, 4:16 PM EDT

    Chris Perez Getty Getty Images

    He still has to serve a 50-game suspension for a “drug of abuse.”

  10. George Springer sent to the disabled list, not expected back for six weeks

    Jul 2, 2015, 3:24 PM EDT

    George Springer Getty Images

    He fractured his wrist last night as a result of an Edinson Volquez fastball.

  11. Wanna buy Jerry Dipoto’s house?

    Jul 2, 2015, 1:12 PM EDT

    Jerry Dipoto Jerry Dipoto

    It was for sale before he even resigned.

  12. Today is International Signing Day. Here’s what you need to know.

    Jul 2, 2015, 11:29 AM EDT

    Globe

    Basically you just need to follow Jesse Sanchez and Ben Badler, so here are the links you need to do that.

  13. Giants welcome back Matt Cain for first start in 12 months

    Jul 2, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT

    Matt Cain AP AP

    And place Tim Lincecum on the disabled list.

Top 10 MLB Player Searches
  1. M. Moore (3640)
  2. J. Hamilton (3364)
  3. G. Stanton (3151)
  4. M. Cain (3098)
  5. H. Ramirez (3035)
  1. J. Ellsbury (2852)
  2. B. Harper (2796)
  3. J. Fernandez (2708)
  4. S. Matz (2585)
  5. M. Sano (2493)