Aug 10, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT
Gregg Doyel has a column up over at CBSSports.com about why he thinks Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer. This part, though, about his CBS colleagues, is interesting to me:
CBSSports.com has seven baseball writers—three with actual HOF votes—and five of the seven said they would vote for Bonds. That’s 71.4 percent in favor of induction, with 75 percent required for admittance.
Again, that’s a small sample size—and here comes an even smaller (but more telling) sample size:
Of our three Hall voters at CBSSports.com—longtime baseball writers Scott Miller, Danny Knobler and Jon Heyman—just one said he’d vote for Bonds. Which one? That’s for him to say, if he chooses. Point being, Bonds’ candidacy is supported primarily by the newer-media bloggers at CBSSports.com, an ominous trend given that most Hall voters are longtime writers from the Miller, Knobler and Heyman mold.
I’m not sure it’s quite so ominous. I agree that the longer-tenured, more established voters are more likely to be anti-Bonds and anti-PED guys in general, and that for that reason he faces a tough road for some time. But time marches on and that electorate is going to change quite a bit in the next 15 years.
And it will be 15 years, because even if Bonds doesn’t get in any time soon, it’s almost certain that he’ll get enough support to remain on the ballot. Mark McGwire does, after all — he has ranged from 19% to 23% in the voting since he’s been on the ballot — and there’s no rational reason anyone who votes for McGwire wouldn’t vote for Bonds.
Add more to Bonds, in fact, because some people who don’t vote for McGwire don’t withhold votes simply because he did PEDs, but rather, because they are the “discounters,” as it were, and simply think that McGwire wouldn’t be in the conversation without PEDs (i.e they discount some credit for is career totals due to PED use). Such voters likely will feel differently about Bonds given what he did before it’s generally accepted that he did PEDs, figuring that even with the discount he’d be a Hall of Famer.
So, that gives you a baseline of, at the very least, 25% or so for Bonds. And I’d bet that he gets something closer to 50% of the vote. Then you add in the demographic shift.
It takes ten years as a BBWAA member to become a Hall of Fame voter. So even if one is just admitted to the BBWAA this year — as we here at NBC are going to attempt to do — Barry Bonds will still be on the Hall of Fame ballot for five years after one is allowed to vote.
Not that it’s just starting now, of course. Younger voters who are more inclined to be open to Bonds’ candidacy — I’d say anyone who began regularly covering baseball in the nineties or later — began being admitted to the BBWAA several years ago and are being given Hall of Fame ballots in greater numbers. Many — especially the web-based members like Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Will Carroll, the Baseball Prospectus guys and the FanGraphs guys — are still several years away. The upshot: between now and the end of Bonds’ theoretically continuing unsuccessful candidacy, there should be a pretty significant shift in the aggregate attitude of the Hall of Fame electorate.
So, yes, Bonds’ odds of being elected are pretty long in the short term. But it would surprise me greatly if Bonds spent 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot without being voted in.
In fact, I’d even offer to eat my hat if I’m wrong, but I’m guessing they will have cured baldness by 2027, so I will no longer have a need for hats.
May 28, 2015, 11:39 PM EDT
Red Sox prospect left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings in his major league debut against the Rangers on Thursday.
May 28, 2015, 10:51 PM EDT
Rockies prospect David Dahl suffered a “massive laceration” in his spleen following an outfield collision Thursday and required season-ending surgery.
May 28, 2015, 10:03 PM EDT
Hamilton got a rousing ovation from the home crowd in his return to Texas.
May 28, 2015, 9:05 PM EDT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia was cut loose by the Marlins earlier this month after proving to be a disappointment in his three-year, $21 million contract, but the Diamondbacks are ready to give him a shot.
May 28, 2015, 8:22 PM EDT
Kazmir left his start yesterday against the Tigers after three innings with shoulder tightness, but it sounds like he might not have to miss much time.
May 28, 2015, 7:40 PM EDT
Tanaka has been sidelined since April 23 due to a right forearm strain and right wrist tendinitis.
May 28, 2015, 7:01 PM EDT
The 39-year-old Ortiz has just one hit in his last 20 at-bats and is batting an uncharacteristic .216/.303/.377 with six home runs and 18 RBI across his first 43 games this season.
May 28, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
The Indians placed Santana on the paternity leave list Thursday following the birth of his daughter.
May 28, 2015, 4:52 PM EDT
Nava has struggled all season, hitting just .159 with zero homers.
May 28, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
Michael Taylor suddenly has a full-time job.
May 28, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
Seven and two-thirds innings, 12 strikeouts and nothin’ else doin’.
May 28, 2015, 2:37 PM EDT
Great Moments in . . . wah?
May 28, 2015, 12:50 PM EDT
Kingham cracked top-100 prospect lists last season and this season.
May 28, 2015, 12:16 PM EDT
Jay has been out since May 10 with a wrist injury.
May 28, 2015, 11:53 AM EDT
I don’t do requests and even if I did, I would’t do Rush requests. But you all have broken me down.
May 28, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
“I have nothing to complain about.”
May 28, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
He just opted out of his deal with Tampa Bay.
May 28, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
“He could be anywhere.”
May 28, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT
Where is the asterisk-applying crowd when you need ’em?
May 28, 2015, 9:19 AM EDT
In other news, Taco Bell restaurants in Southern League towns are experiencing record sales.
- Eduardo Rodriguez dazzles in major league debut 7
- Masahiro Tanaka expected to rejoin Yankees next week 4
- Alex Rodriguez is the all-time AL RBI champion. Sorta. 76
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 85
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak: Matt Adams out 3-4 months, possibly the year, with torn quad 60
- Bryce Harper leads in the first round of National League All-Star voting 29
- Buster Olney: The Marlins should hire A-Rod to be their next manager 54
- Breaking down the Braves-Dodgers trade 20