Aug 10, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT
Gregg Doyel has a column up over at CBSSports.com about why he thinks Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer. This part, though, about his CBS colleagues, is interesting to me:
CBSSports.com has seven baseball writers—three with actual HOF votes—and five of the seven said they would vote for Bonds. That’s 71.4 percent in favor of induction, with 75 percent required for admittance.
Again, that’s a small sample size—and here comes an even smaller (but more telling) sample size:
Of our three Hall voters at CBSSports.com—longtime baseball writers Scott Miller, Danny Knobler and Jon Heyman—just one said he’d vote for Bonds. Which one? That’s for him to say, if he chooses. Point being, Bonds’ candidacy is supported primarily by the newer-media bloggers at CBSSports.com, an ominous trend given that most Hall voters are longtime writers from the Miller, Knobler and Heyman mold.
I’m not sure it’s quite so ominous. I agree that the longer-tenured, more established voters are more likely to be anti-Bonds and anti-PED guys in general, and that for that reason he faces a tough road for some time. But time marches on and that electorate is going to change quite a bit in the next 15 years.
And it will be 15 years, because even if Bonds doesn’t get in any time soon, it’s almost certain that he’ll get enough support to remain on the ballot. Mark McGwire does, after all — he has ranged from 19% to 23% in the voting since he’s been on the ballot — and there’s no rational reason anyone who votes for McGwire wouldn’t vote for Bonds.
Add more to Bonds, in fact, because some people who don’t vote for McGwire don’t withhold votes simply because he did PEDs, but rather, because they are the “discounters,” as it were, and simply think that McGwire wouldn’t be in the conversation without PEDs (i.e they discount some credit for is career totals due to PED use). Such voters likely will feel differently about Bonds given what he did before it’s generally accepted that he did PEDs, figuring that even with the discount he’d be a Hall of Famer.
So, that gives you a baseline of, at the very least, 25% or so for Bonds. And I’d bet that he gets something closer to 50% of the vote. Then you add in the demographic shift.
It takes ten years as a BBWAA member to become a Hall of Fame voter. So even if one is just admitted to the BBWAA this year — as we here at NBC are going to attempt to do — Barry Bonds will still be on the Hall of Fame ballot for five years after one is allowed to vote.
Not that it’s just starting now, of course. Younger voters who are more inclined to be open to Bonds’ candidacy — I’d say anyone who began regularly covering baseball in the nineties or later — began being admitted to the BBWAA several years ago and are being given Hall of Fame ballots in greater numbers. Many — especially the web-based members like Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Will Carroll, the Baseball Prospectus guys and the FanGraphs guys — are still several years away. The upshot: between now and the end of Bonds’ theoretically continuing unsuccessful candidacy, there should be a pretty significant shift in the aggregate attitude of the Hall of Fame electorate.
So, yes, Bonds’ odds of being elected are pretty long in the short term. But it would surprise me greatly if Bonds spent 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot without being voted in.
In fact, I’d even offer to eat my hat if I’m wrong, but I’m guessing they will have cured baldness by 2027, so I will no longer have a need for hats.
May 22, 2013, 5:32 PM EDT
Jered Weaver threw 5.2 innings of one-run ball in an extended spring training game today, potentially setting him up to come off the disabled list and rejoin the Angels’ rotation next week. Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times reports that Weaver threw 75 pitches, 62 for strikes, and struck out nine versus zero walks.…
May 22, 2013, 5:02 PM EDT
Superman has kryptonite. Matt Harvey has Zack Cozart. Despite being a nearly unhittable pitcher this year, the Reds’ Cozart got four hits off Harvey today en route to a 4 for 5, two-double performance. Overall Harvey had his worst outing of the season, allowing four runs on nine hits in six and a third. One…
May 22, 2013, 4:31 PM EDT
Kinda feels like a lot of Rays farmhands get suspended for drugs: The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball announced today that Tampa Bay Rays Minor League right-handed pitcher Angel Yepez has received a 50-game suspension without pay after testing positive for metabolites of Nandrolone, a performance-enhancing substance in violation of the Minor League Drug…
May 22, 2013, 4:16 PM EDT
UPDATE: Las Vegas police issued the following statement: The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department is currently investigating a Sexual Assault case. Jose Conseco [sic] has been named as the suspect in this investigation. At this time no charges have been filed and our investigation remains ongoing. Per department policy neither victim information or investigation details…
May 22, 2013, 4:00 PM EDT
Even though they met in the World Series nearly 22 years ago, the Twins-Braves series still stirs up some emotions in partisans of each team. Mostly Braves fans, to be honest, as we are bitter and angry and all of that stuff even more than two decades later. Freakin’ Kent Hrbek. Freakin’ Kirby Puckett. Freakin’…
May 22, 2013, 3:45 PM EDT
It’s not often that you see an Opening Day starter sent to the minors, let alone demoted less than two months into the season, but that’s exactly what the Twins just did with Vance Worley. Worley got knocked around for eight runs in 3.2 innings against the Braves today, falling to 1-5 with a 7.21…
May 22, 2013, 3:00 PM EDT
Adam Eaton was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in March and was playing in rehab games. Then this: #Dbacks OF Adam Eaton has returned to Phx to see doc after having soreness in elbow. — Steve Gilbert (@SteveGilbertMLB) May 22, 2013 Eaton hit .259/.382/.412 in his cup of coffee last year and was…
May 22, 2013, 2:44 PM EDT
Remember how Rafael Soriano called out Bryce Harper for blowing last night’s game by missing a catch in right field? Not surprisingly the Nationals closer took it all back today, telling James Wagner of the Washington Post that the comments came during what he thought was an off-the-record conversation with a reporter. Here’s more from…
May 22, 2013, 2:30 PM EDT
We’re talking phenoms on HBT Daily today.
May 22, 2013, 2:00 PM EDT
Jeremy Affeldt was interviewed about his new book. Which, it seems, reveals the deeply Christian Affeldt to have experienced a transformation on the matter of homosexuality: When Jeremy Affeldt came to the Bay Area as an opposing player, he refused to leave his hotel room aside from going to and from the ballpark. He was…
May 22, 2013, 1:48 PM EDT
Chase Utley was scratched from last night’s game with pain in his right side and Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports that the Phillies second baseman is getting an MRI exam. Utley complained of a burning sensation in his rib cage and Salisbury speculates that it might be an oblique strain, which would almost certainly require…
May 22, 2013, 1:00 PM EDT
I’m usually the last guy to call for a manager’s head, but I’m sorry, when you call out your own team’s toughness and your boss’ construction of the roster, you’re not long for your job. Here’s Bill Plunkett of the OC Register, quoting Mattingly today about what ails the Dodgers: Don Mattingly pregame seemed to…
May 22, 2013, 12:46 PM EDT
When the Cardinals placed left-hander Jaime Garcia on the disabled list last week they feared that he’d need shoulder surgery and sure enough Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that he’ll go under the knife. Garcia has a long history of arm problems and the possibility of shoulder surgery has been looming since last year, when…
May 22, 2013, 12:30 PM EDT
He didn’t actually use those words, but I kinda wish he did because I have a lot of fun with the “robot umps now” thing on Twitter. But Brenly does tell Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he thinks the game is too fast, the technology is too good and the calls are too…
May 22, 2013, 11:51 AM EDT
Kyle Lohse has been scratched from his next scheduled start with what the Brewers are calling elbow irritation. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports that Mike Fiers will fill in for Lohse against the Pirates on Saturday. Lohse has an ugly 1-5 record since signing a three-year, $33 million deal with the Brewers late in spring…
May 22, 2013, 11:19 AM EDT
For the second time this week the Twins have called up a player they signed out of an independent league. First it was reliever Caleb Thielbar and now it’s first baseman Chris Colabello, who signed with the Twins last year after dominating in the Canadian-American Association. Colabello is 29 years old and wasn’t all that…
May 22, 2013, 11:02 AM EDT
Well, Bryce Harper and/or whoever is in charge of defensive positioning in the late innings of last night’s Nats loss to the Giants. From USA Today: “With two outs and the tying run at first, you have to play the outfield so the ball doesn’t go over your head,” Soriano said in Spanish. “It may…
May 22, 2013, 10:47 AM EDT
Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting just .242 with a .307 on-base percentage, but Red Sox manager John Farrell has stuck with him in the leadoff spot. However, the manager did admit to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he’s considering shifting Ellsbury down in the batting order. For his part Ellsbury thinks that would be a mistake,…
May 22, 2013, 10:30 AM EDT
Trevor Plouffe had an awful tenth inning in last night’s Twins-Braves game. First he reached base by taking a 97 m.p.h. Craig Kimbrel fastball to the ribs. Then he tried to break up a double play and took a knee to the head, leaving him on the ground for a good while. Looked nasty. Plouffe has…
May 22, 2013, 10:15 AM EDT
Hanley Ramirez tested his hamstring injury by doing some running yesterday, but Dodgers manager Don Mattingly told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com that he’s still at least two weeks away from returning to game action. That fits the initial 4-6 week timetable Ramirez was given for the injury back in on May 7. Dee Gordon has…
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