Aug 10, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT
Gregg Doyel has a column up over at CBSSports.com about why he thinks Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer. This part, though, about his CBS colleagues, is interesting to me:
CBSSports.com has seven baseball writers—three with actual HOF votes—and five of the seven said they would vote for Bonds. That’s 71.4 percent in favor of induction, with 75 percent required for admittance.
Again, that’s a small sample size—and here comes an even smaller (but more telling) sample size:
Of our three Hall voters at CBSSports.com—longtime baseball writers Scott Miller, Danny Knobler and Jon Heyman—just one said he’d vote for Bonds. Which one? That’s for him to say, if he chooses. Point being, Bonds’ candidacy is supported primarily by the newer-media bloggers at CBSSports.com, an ominous trend given that most Hall voters are longtime writers from the Miller, Knobler and Heyman mold.
I’m not sure it’s quite so ominous. I agree that the longer-tenured, more established voters are more likely to be anti-Bonds and anti-PED guys in general, and that for that reason he faces a tough road for some time. But time marches on and that electorate is going to change quite a bit in the next 15 years.
And it will be 15 years, because even if Bonds doesn’t get in any time soon, it’s almost certain that he’ll get enough support to remain on the ballot. Mark McGwire does, after all — he has ranged from 19% to 23% in the voting since he’s been on the ballot — and there’s no rational reason anyone who votes for McGwire wouldn’t vote for Bonds.
Add more to Bonds, in fact, because some people who don’t vote for McGwire don’t withhold votes simply because he did PEDs, but rather, because they are the “discounters,” as it were, and simply think that McGwire wouldn’t be in the conversation without PEDs (i.e they discount some credit for is career totals due to PED use). Such voters likely will feel differently about Bonds given what he did before it’s generally accepted that he did PEDs, figuring that even with the discount he’d be a Hall of Famer.
So, that gives you a baseline of, at the very least, 25% or so for Bonds. And I’d bet that he gets something closer to 50% of the vote. Then you add in the demographic shift.
It takes ten years as a BBWAA member to become a Hall of Fame voter. So even if one is just admitted to the BBWAA this year — as we here at NBC are going to attempt to do — Barry Bonds will still be on the Hall of Fame ballot for five years after one is allowed to vote.
Not that it’s just starting now, of course. Younger voters who are more inclined to be open to Bonds’ candidacy — I’d say anyone who began regularly covering baseball in the nineties or later — began being admitted to the BBWAA several years ago and are being given Hall of Fame ballots in greater numbers. Many — especially the web-based members like Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Will Carroll, the Baseball Prospectus guys and the FanGraphs guys — are still several years away. The upshot: between now and the end of Bonds’ theoretically continuing unsuccessful candidacy, there should be a pretty significant shift in the aggregate attitude of the Hall of Fame electorate.
So, yes, Bonds’ odds of being elected are pretty long in the short term. But it would surprise me greatly if Bonds spent 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot without being voted in.
In fact, I’d even offer to eat my hat if I’m wrong, but I’m guessing they will have cured baldness by 2027, so I will no longer have a need for hats.
Apr 17, 2014, 2:21 AM EDT
Notes from a wild game in Chicago.
Apr 16, 2014, 11:32 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks lost another game to the Mets on Wednesday afternoon and are now 4-14 on the season with by far the worst run differential (-48) in the major leagues. But the manager and GM are not on the hot seat … yet.
Apr 16, 2014, 10:25 PM EDT
Dontrelle Willis signed a minor league contract with the Giants in January and was officially added to the roster at Triple-A Fresno on April 12. But the veteran left-hander didn’t even last a week there.
Apr 16, 2014, 9:39 PM EDT
Astros outfield prospect George Springer grounded out sharply to shortstop in his first major league at-bat on Wednesday night. In his second trip to the plate, he made it to first base …
Apr 16, 2014, 8:54 PM EDT
Josh Hamilton is likely to be sidelined through most of May with a complete tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb and now beat writer Jeff Fletcher at the Orange County Register reports that Kole Calhoun will miss the next 4-6 weeks with what Angels manager Mike Scioscia called a “bad ligament sprain” in his right ankle.
Apr 16, 2014, 8:01 PM EDT
Mariners right-hander Taijuan Walker had to be scratched from what was supposed to be his final minor league rehab start Tuesday at Triple-A Tacoma and he headed to Seattle on Wednesday for tests. The MRI results are in.
Apr 16, 2014, 7:13 PM EDT
Braves closer Craig Kimbrel was unavailable to pitch on Monday because of soreness in his right shoulder. But it’s apparently only a minor issue and he expects to be fine going forward.
Apr 16, 2014, 6:35 PM EDT
From James Wagner of the Washington Post comes word that Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper has been scratched from the club’s starting lineup on Wednesday night against the Marlins because of tightness in his left quadriceps muscle.
Apr 16, 2014, 6:11 PM EDT
Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is back in the starting lineup for Wednesday’s game against the White Sox after getting a cortisone shot Monday for the inflammation in his left wrist.
Apr 16, 2014, 5:04 PM EDT
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
Apr 16, 2014, 4:16 PM EDT
Cardinals right-hander Joe Kelly left today’s start against the Brewers after tweaking his hamstring trying to beat out an infield single in the sixth inning.
Apr 16, 2014, 3:59 PM EDT
That’s 28 strikeouts in his first three big league starts.
Apr 16, 2014, 3:34 PM EDT
Cueto set a career high for strikeouts as he tossed his third career shutout
Apr 16, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
Completion is set for February 2017
Apr 16, 2014, 2:44 PM EDT
Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata just made a great catch to rob Brayan Pena of an extra-base hit, but unfortunately he slammed into an unpadded portion of the wall in Cincinnati and had to leave the game.
Apr 16, 2014, 2:33 PM EDT
You can spend all you want on a 30 year-old free agent, but be careful how much you spend on an 16-year-old prospect.
Apr 16, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
The two most dominant pitchers in the AL face off tonight. Given their ages, their contract status and their presence in the same division, expect this to grow into a wonderful rivalry over the coming years.
Apr 16, 2014, 1:33 PM EDT
The Dodgers have an embarrassment of outfield riches.
Apr 16, 2014, 12:38 PM EDT
I don’t know the real Brian Wilson, but even if this isn’t it, remember: we are what we pretend to be.
Apr 16, 2014, 12:16 PM EDT
Nick Franklin lost his job to Robinson Cano, but now he’s headed back to Seattle.
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists (241)
- The Red Sox are still steamed that a PED guy played against them in the playoffs last year (130)
- Doug Glanville’s story about being racially profiled at his own home (125)
- There is still a racial divide in baseball (111)
- Must-Click Link: Yasiel Puig’s harrowing journey to the United States (95)