Aug 10, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT
Gregg Doyel has a column up over at CBSSports.com about why he thinks Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer. This part, though, about his CBS colleagues, is interesting to me:
CBSSports.com has seven baseball writers—three with actual HOF votes—and five of the seven said they would vote for Bonds. That’s 71.4 percent in favor of induction, with 75 percent required for admittance.
Again, that’s a small sample size—and here comes an even smaller (but more telling) sample size:
Of our three Hall voters at CBSSports.com—longtime baseball writers Scott Miller, Danny Knobler and Jon Heyman—just one said he’d vote for Bonds. Which one? That’s for him to say, if he chooses. Point being, Bonds’ candidacy is supported primarily by the newer-media bloggers at CBSSports.com, an ominous trend given that most Hall voters are longtime writers from the Miller, Knobler and Heyman mold.
I’m not sure it’s quite so ominous. I agree that the longer-tenured, more established voters are more likely to be anti-Bonds and anti-PED guys in general, and that for that reason he faces a tough road for some time. But time marches on and that electorate is going to change quite a bit in the next 15 years.
And it will be 15 years, because even if Bonds doesn’t get in any time soon, it’s almost certain that he’ll get enough support to remain on the ballot. Mark McGwire does, after all — he has ranged from 19% to 23% in the voting since he’s been on the ballot — and there’s no rational reason anyone who votes for McGwire wouldn’t vote for Bonds.
Add more to Bonds, in fact, because some people who don’t vote for McGwire don’t withhold votes simply because he did PEDs, but rather, because they are the “discounters,” as it were, and simply think that McGwire wouldn’t be in the conversation without PEDs (i.e they discount some credit for is career totals due to PED use). Such voters likely will feel differently about Bonds given what he did before it’s generally accepted that he did PEDs, figuring that even with the discount he’d be a Hall of Famer.
So, that gives you a baseline of, at the very least, 25% or so for Bonds. And I’d bet that he gets something closer to 50% of the vote. Then you add in the demographic shift.
It takes ten years as a BBWAA member to become a Hall of Fame voter. So even if one is just admitted to the BBWAA this year — as we here at NBC are going to attempt to do — Barry Bonds will still be on the Hall of Fame ballot for five years after one is allowed to vote.
Not that it’s just starting now, of course. Younger voters who are more inclined to be open to Bonds’ candidacy — I’d say anyone who began regularly covering baseball in the nineties or later — began being admitted to the BBWAA several years ago and are being given Hall of Fame ballots in greater numbers. Many — especially the web-based members like Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Will Carroll, the Baseball Prospectus guys and the FanGraphs guys — are still several years away. The upshot: between now and the end of Bonds’ theoretically continuing unsuccessful candidacy, there should be a pretty significant shift in the aggregate attitude of the Hall of Fame electorate.
So, yes, Bonds’ odds of being elected are pretty long in the short term. But it would surprise me greatly if Bonds spent 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot without being voted in.
In fact, I’d even offer to eat my hat if I’m wrong, but I’m guessing they will have cured baldness by 2027, so I will no longer have a need for hats.
Jul 2, 2015, 11:28 PM EDT
League hasn’t pitched in the majors this season due to a shoulder injury.
Jul 2, 2015, 10:39 PM EDT
The Reds are expected to be sellers, but GM Walt Jocketty said Thursday that third baseman Todd Frazier isn’t going anywhere.
Jul 2, 2015, 9:23 PM EDT
After pitching into the seventh inning in his major league debut against the Rangers last Saturday, Blue Jays left-hander Matt Boyd failed to record an out in his start tonight against the Red Sox.
Jul 2, 2015, 8:26 PM EDT
Freeman hopes to return right after the All-Star break, but he acknowledges that it’s a “best-case scenario.”
Jul 2, 2015, 7:28 PM EDT
Bradley has been out for a month with right shoulder tendinitis.
Jul 2, 2015, 6:31 PM EDT
Jay has already had one stint on the disabled list this season due to his nagging wrist injury.
Jul 2, 2015, 5:30 PM EDT
No, that’s not how the law works.
Jul 2, 2015, 5:02 PM EDT
Cahill was designated for assignment by the Braves earlier this month after allowing 23 runs in 26 innings.
Jul 2, 2015, 4:29 PM EDT
The director, Chris Correa, has admitted to hacking into the Astros system.
Jul 2, 2015, 4:16 PM EDT
He still has to serve a 50-game suspension for a “drug of abuse.”
Jul 2, 2015, 3:49 PM EDT
Shawn Tolleson has grabbed hold of ninth-inning duties.
Jul 2, 2015, 3:24 PM EDT
He fractured his wrist last night as a result of an Edinson Volquez fastball.
Jul 2, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT
Not a bad return following Tommy John surgery.
Jul 2, 2015, 2:14 PM EDT
Chris Taylor replaces him on the roster.
Jul 2, 2015, 1:27 PM EDT
The dreaded plantar fasciitis.
Jul 2, 2015, 1:12 PM EDT
It was for sale before he even resigned.
Jul 2, 2015, 11:29 AM EDT
Basically you just need to follow Jesse Sanchez and Ben Badler, so here are the links you need to do that.
Jul 2, 2015, 11:02 AM EDT
I hear his [pitch] is nasty.
Jul 2, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
And place Tim Lincecum on the disabled list.
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- Bryce Harper is naked in ESPN’s “Body Issue” 54
- Today is the day: Marlins ace Jose Fernandez returns from Tommy John surgery 4
- A-Rod, the Yankees and the union in talks to direct his $6 million home run bonus to charity 29
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 51
- Video: Joey Butler breaks up Carlos Carrasco’s no-hitter with two outs in the ninth inning 12
- Bill Stoneman taking over as Angels’ interim GM 17
- Jerry Dipoto loses power struggle with Mike Scioscia, steps down as Angels general manager 39
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- There was a super ump show in Chicago yesterday (75)