Aug 10, 2012, 2:00 PM EST
Gregg Doyel has a column up over at CBSSports.com about why he thinks Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer. This part, though, about his CBS colleagues, is interesting to me:
CBSSports.com has seven baseball writers—three with actual HOF votes—and five of the seven said they would vote for Bonds. That’s 71.4 percent in favor of induction, with 75 percent required for admittance.
Again, that’s a small sample size—and here comes an even smaller (but more telling) sample size:
Of our three Hall voters at CBSSports.com—longtime baseball writers Scott Miller, Danny Knobler and Jon Heyman—just one said he’d vote for Bonds. Which one? That’s for him to say, if he chooses. Point being, Bonds’ candidacy is supported primarily by the newer-media bloggers at CBSSports.com, an ominous trend given that most Hall voters are longtime writers from the Miller, Knobler and Heyman mold.
I’m not sure it’s quite so ominous. I agree that the longer-tenured, more established voters are more likely to be anti-Bonds and anti-PED guys in general, and that for that reason he faces a tough road for some time. But time marches on and that electorate is going to change quite a bit in the next 15 years.
And it will be 15 years, because even if Bonds doesn’t get in any time soon, it’s almost certain that he’ll get enough support to remain on the ballot. Mark McGwire does, after all — he has ranged from 19% to 23% in the voting since he’s been on the ballot — and there’s no rational reason anyone who votes for McGwire wouldn’t vote for Bonds.
Add more to Bonds, in fact, because some people who don’t vote for McGwire don’t withhold votes simply because he did PEDs, but rather, because they are the “discounters,” as it were, and simply think that McGwire wouldn’t be in the conversation without PEDs (i.e they discount some credit for is career totals due to PED use). Such voters likely will feel differently about Bonds given what he did before it’s generally accepted that he did PEDs, figuring that even with the discount he’d be a Hall of Famer.
So, that gives you a baseline of, at the very least, 25% or so for Bonds. And I’d bet that he gets something closer to 50% of the vote. Then you add in the demographic shift.
It takes ten years as a BBWAA member to become a Hall of Fame voter. So even if one is just admitted to the BBWAA this year — as we here at NBC are going to attempt to do — Barry Bonds will still be on the Hall of Fame ballot for five years after one is allowed to vote.
Not that it’s just starting now, of course. Younger voters who are more inclined to be open to Bonds’ candidacy — I’d say anyone who began regularly covering baseball in the nineties or later — began being admitted to the BBWAA several years ago and are being given Hall of Fame ballots in greater numbers. Many — especially the web-based members like Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Will Carroll, the Baseball Prospectus guys and the FanGraphs guys — are still several years away. The upshot: between now and the end of Bonds’ theoretically continuing unsuccessful candidacy, there should be a pretty significant shift in the aggregate attitude of the Hall of Fame electorate.
So, yes, Bonds’ odds of being elected are pretty long in the short term. But it would surprise me greatly if Bonds spent 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot without being voted in.
In fact, I’d even offer to eat my hat if I’m wrong, but I’m guessing they will have cured baldness by 2027, so I will no longer have a need for hats.
Mar 4, 2015, 1:26 PM EST
Athletes oftentimes, don’t see reporters as people. Reporters, oftentimes, don’t see athletes as people. Reporters, however have a duty of objectivity athletes don’t have.
Mar 4, 2015, 12:26 PM EST
He’ll miss at least a week.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:47 AM EST
The move leaves Craig Gentry and Sam Fuld to platoon in center field.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:20 AM EST
Billingsley hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since way back in April of 2013.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:05 AM EST
Today’s news sucks for Joel Hanrahan, but it’s a good basis for an explainer.
Mar 4, 2015, 10:52 AM EST
Wieters underwent Tommy John elbow surgery in June.
Mar 4, 2015, 10:15 AM EST
Now that David Price is out of the picture the Rays need a new Opening Day starter.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:59 AM EST
. . . it’s worth remembering that Schilling himself has some issues when it comes to sensitivity and enlightenment on social media.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:30 AM EST
Let us applaud one writer’s brave effort to battle the beast that is A-Rod Derangement Syndrome.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:03 AM EST
Juan Marichal’s got nothin’ on this pitcher from Murray State.
Mar 4, 2015, 8:24 AM EST
Terrible news that will keep Joel Hanrahan off the mound for at least another year.
Mar 4, 2015, 6:54 AM EST
I wasn’t aware that one could “disagree” with facts. But there we are.
Mar 3, 2015, 10:57 PM EST
It was a successful afternoon in pretty much every way at Fenway South. Except maybe one …
Mar 3, 2015, 9:44 PM EST
The expectation is that he will have to sit out the entire 2015 season.
Mar 3, 2015, 8:31 PM EST
The deal does not include an invitation to major league spring training, so Beato won’t be under consideration for one of the spots in the Orioles’ Opening Day bullpen.
Mar 3, 2015, 7:28 PM EST
Yoenis Cespedes made his presence felt around Tigers camp with this fourth-inning grand slam in Tuesday afternoon’s Grapefruit League opener against the visiting Orioles …
Mar 3, 2015, 6:32 PM EST
He can be solid rotation depth for some team.
Mar 3, 2015, 5:46 PM EST
Kang hit .356 with 40 homers in Korea last season.
Mar 3, 2015, 4:15 PM EST
Because, if he does, David Wright and Bobby Parnell are gonna go kick his butt.
Mar 3, 2015, 3:54 PM EST
Unless someone gets injured, spring training game results don’t matter a bit. But they are a reminder that everyone starts from square one each season. No matter how well they ended the season before.
- Daniel Murphy on Billy Bean: “I do disagree with the fact that Billy is a homosexual” 290
- Blue Jays sign Dayan Viciedo to a minor league deal 8
- Chris Sale will be sidelined for three weeks with foot fracture 11
- Aramis Ramirez says 2015 will be his last year 32
- Francisco Rodriguez re-signs with the Brewers 9
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended 307
- Pirates open to massive extension for Andrew McCutchen 18
- Report: Josh Hamilton had a relapse this offseason that “involved at least cocaine” 86
- Daniel Murphy on Billy Bean: “I do disagree with the fact that Billy is a homosexual” (315)
- If addiction is an illness — and it is — Josh Hamilton shouldn’t be suspended (307)
- Curt Schilling lowers the boom on some men tweeting threats against his daughter (136)
- San Francisco — and all of California — will consider a smokeless tobacco ban that includes MLB parks (131)
- Ichiro is happy to be away from Joe Girardi (88)