Again…look at average with RISP. Forget how the other guys do. The question is how a player does when the opportunity arrises.

What’s more, ordinarily I wouldn’t care about “percentage of team’s runs driven in”. When rooting for my team, I want the guys up and down the lineup to produce. Balance wins. But when the conversation is about MVP…the guy in the league who is most valuable to his team’s success…it is reasonable to consider that statistic. Miguel drives in 19.3% of all the runs the Tigers have driven in. Without Miguel the Tigers aren’t even playoff contenders, and that makes him as valuable to them as any player in the league is for his team.

You said: “His range is laughable. Not sure how you can suggest otherwise.”

Umm…because he’s got the 4th best fielding percentage in the league (3rd basemen), and the most putouts. You can’t have the most putouts if you can’t get to the ball. Even if you want to laugh it off by saying he gets more opportunities, then 4th best fielding percentage sorta smokes that argument.

MVP isn’t an award for “who would’ve been the best if they’d been able to play”. You can’t penalize Miguel just because Mike didn’t get called up until later. Also, there is a monumental difference between 19.3% (percentage of Tigers runs knocked in by Miggy) and 12.8% (percentage of Angels runs knocked in by Mike). It’s not a knock on Mike; it’s just a fact.

You also can’t penalize Miggy because he has more guys on base than Mike (according to you). The vital stat, of course, is average with RISP. That’s how they get those RBIs. Miguel’s is .367. With 2 outs he’s a mind-boggling .447. Mike is .363 (obviously just as good) and .297 (not exactly .447). It’s not about who bats in front of them…it’s what they do, by the averages, that matters.

I did find a 5 game stretch in which Holliday hit in front of Albert in 2010. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2010-batting-orders.shtml
Note that this is an *extremely* small sample size and shouldn’t really be viewed as proof on way or another. Regardless, what did Matt Holliday hit over that stretch…

…222/.333/.333

Yep, with Pujols as lineup protection, he hit worse. Over and over again, data shows that the concept of lineup protection is a myth. For some reason, myths in baseball refuse to die.

Oh Jesus Christ…what the fuck happened to this word.

Boggs posted an .892 OPS in the 3 hole, compared to .876 batting 2nd and .841 batting 1st. True, he’s slightly better, but is it because he just naturally hits better third or is there another, far more logical reason behind this?

Teams don’t tend to bat young, powerless players 3rd in their lineup. Boggs become a #3 hitter after proving he was a fantastic hitter. Hence, his number are better as a #3 hitter.

Lessee, Miguel Cabrera has played in 121 (100%) of his team’s 121 games, and has mostly batted behind Austin Jackson (.392 OBP), Quintin Berry (.354) and (after an early flirtation with Brennan Boesch) Andy Dirks (.386). He’s collected 19% of the Tigers RBI.

Mike Trout has played in 99 (81%) of his team’s 122 games, and has mostly batted behind some combination of Erick Aybar (.313), Bobby Wilson (.294), Peter Bourjos (.287) and Chris Ianetta (.326). He’s collected 13% of the Angels RBI.

I’d say that Trout’s RBI number is pretty good given the circumstances.

2006-2009 with past prime Edmonds/Rolen/ and Chris Duncan/Ryan Ludwick/Rick Ankiel behind him: 1.078 OPS

2010-2011 with Matt Holliday: .959 OPS

What do these numbers tell us? That Albert Pujols peaked between the ages of 26-29 like 95% of baseball players and his performance didn’t have much to do with who was hitting behind him.

Here are like 50 examples of why hitter protection is stupid.

Albert Pujols in 2009:
with Ryan Ludwick/Chris Duncan hitting behind him: .320/.443/.674
With Matt Holliday hitting behind him: .340/.442/.631

Miguel Cabrera
2010, with Boesch hitting behind him: .328/.420/.622
2011, with Victor Martinez hitting behind him: .344/.448/.586
2012, with Prince Fielder hitting behind him: .331/.397/.592

How about Jim Edmonds. In 2003, batting in front of Pujols, he hit .229/.327/.557
Batting behind Pujols, he hit .288/.403/.624

2005 Gary Sheffield
Batting in front of MVP Alex Rodriguez: .291/.379/.508
Batting behind A-Rod: .295/.378/.538

MVP Jim Rice killed the ball in 1978. Teammate Fred Lynn had a nice year too, posting a 133 OPS+.
Batting directly in front of Rice, Lynn hit .275/.359/.463
…batting behind Rice, well down in the lineup, he hit .306/.391/.503

…and so on!

Actually, no. “Lineup optimization” means getting more plate appearances for your best betters, and getting the best mix of the on-base guys with the power guys.

“Lineup protection” means you think Player A is getting better pitches to hit because he bats in front of Player B.

“Lineup protection” has never made sense to me. The theory is that you don’t want to be hurt by Player B, so you give Player A more hittable pitches, with the result being that Player B is more likely to have men on base when he comes up. Why would you think that’s a good strategy?

Mike Trout has not only put up extraordinary numbers, he’s maintained it with staggering consistency. But to suggest that Miguel Cabrera has not done so as well is simply fanboy voting. Nobody…not Trout nor any other player…comes even close to driving in a greater share of his teams runs. Miggy never soared above a fence to take away another team’s run. There are legitimate points to be made for both guys, and neither deserves bashing. They’re the best baseball has to offer.

Perhaps the biggest difference is that optimization states that your best hitter bats 1st, 2nd or 4th – not 3rd as has been tradition.

That does get me curious as to how much different Wade Boggs career number would have been if he had batted 3rd for the majority of his career . . . the lineup slot he was most productive in, yet spent a little less than 1/4 of his career in.

Oh, wrong Deep Thoughts!!!!!

Also, why do you believe managers act optimally?

Otherwise, lineups could be assembled at random with a dart board and talk show hosts would have 50% less to talk about during the Major League season.