Sep 12, 2012, 2:34 AM EDT
By division, here’s a list of teams I can see opening up the wallets for a $10 million-plus-per-year pitcher this winter:
Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees
Royals, Tigers, White Sox
Angels, Athletics, Mariners, Rangers
Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Phillies
Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates
And here’s a list of the elite pitching free agents available this winter:
I think it should go without saying that demand is going to exceed supply in a big way.
And that’s why ESPN’s Jim Bowden and Dan Szymborski look kind of foolish for a couple of their early calls.
Edwin Jackson is, in my mind, pretty obviously the No. 2 pitching free agent available this winter. He’s 29, he has practically the same ERA as Greinke the last three years (Greinke has a 104 ERA+, Jackson is at 102) and he seems to be on the upswing, if K/BB ratio and WHIP count for anything. I’ll be stunned if he has to settle for less than $48 million over four years this winter and my guess is that he gets something closer to $70 million over five years.
ESPN’s insiders aren’t thinking that far ahead, though. Bowden, in his column, says Jackson has only “proved himself to be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter.” He labels the Royals as the best fit for him, putting the Indians and Marlins as alternatives. He obviously doesn’t think the bigger spenders will go after him. But then, that’s the typical lack of insight one gets from Bowden.
(Bowden also has Fernando Rodney going back to the Angels or maybe the Giants or Dodgers in his column, not realizing that the Rays are just going to exercise their $2.5 million option on his services.)
I expect a lot more from Szymborski, and it’s rare that he disappoints. However, he lists Jackson and B.J. Upton among his five free agent bargains, ones “that won’t break the wallet.” And while I agree that those two look like better values than several other top free agents, there’s no way, no how that either goes off at a bargain price.
This winter is going to reveal that there’s a lot more money to be spent than quality players to spend it on. It’s going to take a lot more digging to find any bargains
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- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 53
- The benches cleared in Toronto, too 78
- The Reds’ and Pirates’ benches cleared after Brandon Phillips was hit with a pitch 60
- Reminder: even though the trade deadline has passed, trades can still happen 13
- Settling the Scores: Saturday’s results 36
- Lucas Duda’s last eight hits have been home runs 11
- Report: Larry Lucchino stepping down as president and CEO of the Red Sox 32
- The benches cleared in Friday’s Giants-Rangers game (205)
- Blue Jays acquire David Price from the Tigers (113)
- Rangers land ace left-hander Cole Hamels from Phillies (106)
- Royals make another big move, get Ben Zobrist from A’s (95)
- Report: Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki to Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and prospects (92)