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Looking back at the HBT writer predictions

Sep 28, 2012, 1:00 PM EDT

Oracle of Delphi

I know we have a few days of the season left, but I figure now would be as good a time as any to look back to April and see how the HBT folks here did at predicting the playoff teams this year.  We made or predictions on April 4.

D.J. got seven of the ten likely playoff teams. Drew got six. Aaron and I only five. Maybe Aaron and I should be writing nights and weekends and those two taking over the day shifts.

Also worth noting: Aaron’s pick of the Marlins as a wild card team is the most wince-worthy one there.  The Phillies are a big clunker too, as we all picked them to win the East.  None of us were high on Boston.

Enjoy and mock as necessary:

Craig
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card: Angels
AL Wild Card: Rays

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Braves
NL Wild Card: Brewers

Aaron
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card: Angels
AL Wild Card: Rays

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Giants
NL Wild Card: Brewers
NL Wild Card: Marlins

D.J.
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card: Rays
AL Wild Card: Angels

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Giants
NL Wild Card: Braves
NL Wild Card: Reds

Drew

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card: Rays
AL Wild Card: Angels

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Reds
NL Wild Card: Nationals

  1. stussyjoker - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:15 PM

    A’s

  2. pw38 - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:20 PM

    lol @ Phillies.

  3. raysfan1 - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:26 PM

    The Rays will try to improve y’all’s percentage.

    • protius - Sep 29, 2012 at 10:36 AM

      By what, disbanding?

  4. cur68 - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:30 PM

    None of you scribblers picked the Beaver Men. There, you can pat yourselves on the backs for that bit of prescience.

    • dondada10 - Sep 28, 2012 at 3:28 PM

      Pouliot didn’t pick?

      • cur68 - Sep 29, 2012 at 1:58 PM

        Check rotoworld. He owns that site. I bet he has his picks there.

  5. sdelmonte - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:39 PM

    I think there was not a single place that I saw anyone predict the Tigers not winning the Central. Part of me wanted to see the Chisox winning just to be a thumb in the eye of pundits everywhere.

  6. antlerclaws - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:41 PM

    I had: NL–Phillies, Reds, D-Backs; AL–Yankees, Tigers, Rangers. For Wild Cards, I had Brewers, Braves, Angels, Rays. Failed, like everyone else, with Phillies. D-Backs were disappointing but I did have Giants in 2nd.

    My biggest fail was that I had Orioles and A’s in dead last. Predicted A’s last in AL.

    Also predicted Astros as worst in MLB, finishing with a .401 average. A bit optimistic.

    • stex52 - Sep 28, 2012 at 2:41 PM

      Since the Astros started the season with a 106 loss team from the year before and announced their intention at the start of season to trade anyone who had ever been in the MLB; I’m not giving you many points for that predication.

      From my own perspective, I will say that it was more disgusting to watch that team this year than I expected. When there are kids out there really trying you can put up with a lot. But it was mostly just very badly played baseball.

  7. natslady - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:48 PM

    It sure is lucky they actually play the games! :)

  8. number42is1 - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:50 PM

    I REALLY wanted to see the Astros win the WS this year and then again next year so that they would forever be the undefeated NL champs who won the WS as an AL team.

  9. El Bravo - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:52 PM

    Man, my 3/27 selections are awesome….or not…wow the Marlins let me down. D’bags? Where did you go?

    AL
    Yankees
    Rays (WC)
    Tigers
    Angels
    Rangers (WC)

    NL
    Phillies
    Marlins (WC)
    Braves (WC)
    Cardinals
    Diamondbacks

    AL Pennant:
    Angels

    NL Pennant:
    Marlins

    W.S. Angels in 5

  10. number42is1 - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:56 PM

    one of my favs from the Apr 4th post

    yankeesgameday – Apr 4, 2012 at 9:51 AM
    Thisiss truly the most boring year for the American League. The top five teams are exactly as you listed them and even though some other teams may go on runs after 162 games it will look exactly like you have it. For the first time I can remember every division is locked up at the 1 and 2 spots.the only drama will come from trying to avoid that play in game, but really that isn’t much drama at all.

    Go Yanks (but really it’s the Tiger’s year).

  11. kiwicricket - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:56 PM

    One big take away is how crappy the Angels have been this year. I thought they would really push the Rangers for the AL West.
    If Trout didn’t play out of his mind since being brought up, the Angels would of been awful. Pretty incredible considering the amount of talent they have on their squad.
    The half dozen games I saw them play, they played bad fundamental baseball. Sloppy. Gave runs away.

    • stex52 - Sep 28, 2012 at 2:49 PM

      Y’know, Kiwi, a word that doesn’t get used as much with all of the statistics. “Fundamental.” We all know what it looks like. Give them the OPS for the batters, the WAR cumulative for the team, the WHIP for the pitcher. Even throw in BABIP. But if they don’t hit the cutoff man, they run the base paths stupidly, they miss the double play on a break-up, the extra hit drops in because the fielder was daydreaming; it all adds up. The tools are neat. But they still don’t add up to what a team is. And that is still much easier to capture in retrospect in statistics than it is to predict.

      • stex52 - Sep 28, 2012 at 2:51 PM

        And that is what made the Astros so agonizing. We knew they would be less talented. But what they even did was so flawed fundamentally it was terrible.

      • cur68 - Sep 28, 2012 at 3:44 PM

        Ad that’s what Bo Porter can do for your boys, Stex. He’ll fix the fundamentals first. He’s squeeze every bit of talent out of them second. Third? Well third he’s gotta talk a high calibre DH-type into joining up for very little money. I’m thinking David Ortiz. Your boys need an Ortiz type guy to DH. Because actual hitting aside, he can teach the 2 kinds of hitting Ortiz can produce: pull hitting and short hack slap hitting.

      • natslady - Sep 28, 2012 at 4:33 PM

        Have to agree with cur. Early in the season there were some “non-fundamentals” going on. I remember in particular a routine fly ball dropped between three players. That stuff stopped pretty fast, and I credit Bo. Bo also had to deal with not only teaching Harper to play center but also a couple of infielders Davey wanted to throw out there (Lombardozzi and Tyler Moore). Moore didn’t get good (noodle arm, mostly from not knowing how to set himself for throws as his natural position is 1B) but Lombo acquitted himself quite well. Davey likes offense and he almost doesn’t care what a player’s “natural” position is, he’ll throw anyone out there in LF–except Adam LaRoche who put his foot down about that early on. The Nats play good fundamentals most of the time–and when we meet a team that doesn’t the difference is very noticeable.

        Bo was aggressive at 3B, but that was under Davey’s orders and also with Harper, you just about can’t stop the kid. We had Pat Listach aif you can find it, the video of Porter dancint 3B before and I mean that man would never wave his arm. He’s got a temper (see Cubs, The) and is immensely loyal to “his” guys. Also, this is really cool:

        http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22468581&topic_id=9780550&c_id=mlb

      • natslady - Sep 28, 2012 at 4:43 PM

        Sorry, EDIT FUNCTION. My post got a little garbled because I found the video of Bo Porter dancing. In between that I was saying we had Pat Listach on 3B before Bo and that guy never waved his arm, he was ultra-conservative about sending runners home. That didn’t mesh well with Davey’s style.

  12. legacybroken - Sep 28, 2012 at 1:57 PM

    This just reminds me of how big Philly’s collapse was. Though it hasn’t be discussed alot due to Bobby V and the Red Sox and Ozzie and the Feesh having collapses that resemble an episode of Dallas.

    • 18thstreet - Sep 28, 2012 at 2:39 PM

      And yet, none of them predicted the Red Sox would go to the playoffs (nor did I, but I never thought Baltimore would be this good or Toronto this bad).

      The collapse was last year. 2012 confirmed it was not a fluke.

  13. bigharold - Sep 28, 2012 at 2:07 PM

    So nobody saw the O’s coming?

    In all honesty I thought they’d be competitive but not this much so, .. at least not this season.

  14. 4cornersfan - Sep 28, 2012 at 2:16 PM

    Don’t beat yourself up guys, nobody else saw the O’s and A’s and some of the other teams coming either. Hey, wouldn’t it be neat if the O’s and the A’s were in different leagues? We would have the possibility of a Vowel World Series. Naw. The Jays would probably win the pennant and screw it up. Tells you where my head is.

  15. natslady - Sep 28, 2012 at 2:19 PM

    With 6 games left to play in 2011, the Fillies were 98-58. (.628) Today, 78-78. (.500) -20

    With 6 games left to play in 2011, the Nats were 76-79. (.490) Today, 95-61. (.609) +19

    Which is more predicable? Hard to fault the writers.

    • natstowngreg - Sep 28, 2012 at 4:46 PM

      Last off-season, the talk on this here blog right here was, the Phillies had one more run left, the Nats would become a real contender in 2013. I was one of those saying that. How far the Nats have come in one season.

      • natslady - Sep 28, 2012 at 4:54 PM

        Yep. Everyone but Davey figured 2013 would be our year. Amazing, isn’t it? And fun.

  16. natsattack - Sep 28, 2012 at 3:06 PM

    I had on April 25th in a competion with some friends:
    AL:
    Texas Rangers
    Detroit Tigers
    New York Yankees
    WC:
    Tampa Bay Rays
    Los Angeles Angles or whatever they would be called at the end of the season

    NL:
    Washington Nationals ( very biased)
    Cincinnati Reds
    San Francisco Giants
    WC:
    Atlanta Braves
    St. Louis Cardinals.

    • natslady - Sep 28, 2012 at 4:35 PM

      Wow! Pretty good.

  17. mazblast - Sep 28, 2012 at 3:12 PM

    Did anyone notice that all these experts picked the same five AL teams? Also, that they all picked the Phils and Cards to win their divisions in the NL?

  18. lazlosother - Sep 28, 2012 at 8:25 PM

    I would love to just rip on you guys (nothing personal), but the picks were very similar to mine.

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