Oct 4, 2012, 8:23 AM EDT
If you just look at the raw numbers for Miguel Cabrera — a .330 batting average, 44 home runs and 139 RBI — you wouldn’t immediately say “best triple crown ever!” After all, Mickey Mantle hit 52 home runs to secure his. Lou Gehrig hit .363 in his triple crown year. Jimmie Foxx hit 163 RBI the year he did it. I’m not even sure that adjusting for era make Cabrera’s raw numbers one of the best triple crown years.
But there is something else besides those numbers that has convinced me that it is, Joe Sheehan’s argument about it in his latest newsletter:
Cabrera achieved the greatest Triple Crown ever. Forget the raw numbers or any single-number evaluation of his season, and consider that he beat out the largest fields of any winner. No one had won the Triple Crown since 1967, and that’s not a coincidence; it has nothing to do with specialization, the idea that there are more hitters for power and more for average. There are simply more hitters. It’s a math problem.
Expansion in 1969, 1977, 1993 and 1998, Joe notes, dramatically increased the number of players in the game and thus the number of guys in the hunt in triple crown categories each year. To climb to the top of any one of those lists, let alone all three, you have to beat out a lot more dudes.* Joe breaks down the specifics of that math, and it puts the significance of Cabrera’s accomplishment into perspective.
By the way: Joe does this kind of thing almost every day, plus much, much more. Just today, in addition to the Cabrera stuff, he talks about why the Rangers are not dead and, in fact, can be considered favorites to make the ALCS right now. Then he imagines Clayton Kershaw‘s free agent negotiations in a couple of years. Good stuff. If you are interested in it, I highly recommend subscribing to his newsletter.
*Note, this “there are a lot more teams and a lot more players out there” is also one of the things explaining why there are a lot more no hitters and perfect games these days too. In 1955 you had 16 teams playing a total of 1,232 major league games each year. In 2012 you have 30 teams playing 2,430. When you increase the number of players you make leading those players in any category harder, but at the same time, as you increase the number of games being played, you increase the chances of a given phenomenon happening. People tend to ignore this and instead look for explanations involving steroids, magic pitches and the decline of some traditional value they hold near and dear or whatever. It really doesn’t have to be that difficult.
Aug 22, 2014, 6:33 PM EDT
Manny Machado’s season is likely over, as he is expected to undergo season-ending knee surgery within a week, according to a report.
Aug 22, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
According to Peter Gammons, the Orioles and Yankees are “claiming everyone” on waivers, which will make it difficult for the Angels to improve their starting rotation after losing Garrett Richards.
Aug 22, 2014, 5:28 PM EDT
His latest, a solo shot off Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman.
Aug 22, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Sometimes the life of a player with a minor-league option remaining just isn’t fair.
Aug 22, 2014, 3:36 PM EDT
One window doesn’t work and there is no air conditioning. It has 166,000 miles on it. Which, actually, isn’t that bad. Hmmm . . .
Aug 22, 2014, 3:19 PM EDT
Oakland’s outfield depth just got a little stronger with Craig Gentry coming off the disabled list after missing the past month with a broken hand.
Aug 22, 2014, 2:57 PM EDT
Seven games in ten days for the AL West leaders
Aug 22, 2014, 1:50 PM EDT
Machado suffered a sprained right knee on August 11 and the Orioles have mostly been using Chris Davis at third base in his absence.
Aug 22, 2014, 12:49 PM EDT
This has been such a fun story so far. So why NOT throw politics into it?
Aug 22, 2014, 11:50 AM EDT
Robinson Cano has a $240 million contract, his new team has a better record than his old team, and he’s hitting .329 with an .865 OPS that’s slightly above his career mark.
Aug 22, 2014, 11:33 AM EDT
Can he make it to the bigs on a new path for a third time?
Aug 22, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
If any team is going to keep a manager after four straight 90-loss seasons the Twins are the one to do it.
Aug 22, 2014, 11:01 AM EDT
The Red Sox paid a lot of money to get this guy. Expect him in the Sox’ outfield early next season.
Aug 22, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT
With the Reds down 8-0 to the Braves last night manager Bryan Price decided to save the bullpen and turned to utility man Skip Schumaker to work the ninth inning.
Aug 22, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
It’s cool to love what you loved when you were 20. It’s not cool to claim that what you loved when you were 20 is the only thing worth loving.
Aug 22, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT
Aroldis Chapman gave the Reds a big scare when he walked all four batters he faced Sunday and then was unavailable for several days with an “achy” left shoulder, but the flame-throwing closer was back in action Thursday night.
Aug 22, 2014, 9:46 AM EDT
My buns have no seeds.
Aug 22, 2014, 9:27 AM EDT
I think he’d have a pretty tough sled, actually.
Aug 22, 2014, 8:55 AM EDT
Wade Boggs: Pitt the Elder!
Barney: Lord Palmerston!
Wade Boggs: Pitt the Elder!
Barney: Okay, you asked for it, Boggs!
Aug 22, 2014, 8:23 AM EDT
Whatever motivates you, dude.
- Report: Manny Machado to undergo season-ending knee surgery 3
- The Cubs grounds crew was short staffed because the Cubs were trying to avoid Obamacare 196
- Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to sign with the Red Sox for $72 million 92
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 30
- The Nationals extend their winning streak to 10 games with another walk-off victory 12
- Garrett Richards out 6-9 months with torn patellar tendon 14
- A pitch clock in Major League Baseball? No thanks. 92
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights 82
- The Cubs grounds crew was short staffed because the Cubs were trying to avoid Obamacare (196)
- Mike Matheny addresses turmoil in Ferguson: “It’s a sad situation. It’s a tough situation for our city” (127)
- A pitch clock in Major League Baseball? No thanks. (92)
- Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to sign with the Red Sox for $72 million (91)
- Even if he’s reinstated, does Pete Rose make the Hall of Fame? (84)