Oct 4, 2012, 8:23 AM EDT
If you just look at the raw numbers for Miguel Cabrera — a .330 batting average, 44 home runs and 139 RBI — you wouldn’t immediately say “best triple crown ever!” After all, Mickey Mantle hit 52 home runs to secure his. Lou Gehrig hit .363 in his triple crown year. Jimmie Foxx hit 163 RBI the year he did it. I’m not even sure that adjusting for era make Cabrera’s raw numbers one of the best triple crown years.
But there is something else besides those numbers that has convinced me that it is, Joe Sheehan’s argument about it in his latest newsletter:
Cabrera achieved the greatest Triple Crown ever. Forget the raw numbers or any single-number evaluation of his season, and consider that he beat out the largest fields of any winner. No one had won the Triple Crown since 1967, and that’s not a coincidence; it has nothing to do with specialization, the idea that there are more hitters for power and more for average. There are simply more hitters. It’s a math problem.
Expansion in 1969, 1977, 1993 and 1998, Joe notes, dramatically increased the number of players in the game and thus the number of guys in the hunt in triple crown categories each year. To climb to the top of any one of those lists, let alone all three, you have to beat out a lot more dudes.* Joe breaks down the specifics of that math, and it puts the significance of Cabrera’s accomplishment into perspective.
By the way: Joe does this kind of thing almost every day, plus much, much more. Just today, in addition to the Cabrera stuff, he talks about why the Rangers are not dead and, in fact, can be considered favorites to make the ALCS right now. Then he imagines Clayton Kershaw‘s free agent negotiations in a couple of years. Good stuff. If you are interested in it, I highly recommend subscribing to his newsletter.
*Note, this “there are a lot more teams and a lot more players out there” is also one of the things explaining why there are a lot more no hitters and perfect games these days too. In 1955 you had 16 teams playing a total of 1,232 major league games each year. In 2012 you have 30 teams playing 2,430. When you increase the number of players you make leading those players in any category harder, but at the same time, as you increase the number of games being played, you increase the chances of a given phenomenon happening. People tend to ignore this and instead look for explanations involving steroids, magic pitches and the decline of some traditional value they hold near and dear or whatever. It really doesn’t have to be that difficult.
Oct 1, 2014, 6:19 PM EDT
The Angels have announced their rotation for the ALDS against the Royals.
Oct 1, 2014, 5:21 PM EDT
Tony Cruz gets the nod as Yadier Molina’s backup.
Oct 1, 2014, 5:12 PM EDT
Welp, there’s two reasons he’ll never accept an invitation to my house.
Oct 1, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT
ALDS manager drama!
Oct 1, 2014, 4:34 PM EDT
The Tuesday wild card game got ratings 14% higher than last year’s Tuesday wild card game.
Oct 1, 2014, 4:04 PM EDT
Not a ton of surprises. Gaby Sanchez in at first over Ike Davis because of the lefty on the hill. Otherwise, play ball.
Oct 1, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Ron Gardenhire was fired Monday after 13 seasons, the last four of which have seen the Twins lose 90 or more games.
Oct 1, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT
Somehow, it all seemed to tie this strange 2014 season together in one fitting package, though the end result wasn’t what anyone in green and gold wanted.
Oct 1, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
Thanks for sharing, Aubrey.
Oct 1, 2014, 2:48 PM EDT
Adam Wainwright will start Game 1 against Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw.
Oct 1, 2014, 2:36 PM EDT
The Royals, like just about every other team in baseball, have an analytics department. Apologies if that messes with your preconceptions.
Oct 1, 2014, 2:14 PM EDT
At least he got to pitch this season. That was fun.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:53 PM EDT
The Royals may not have won the AL Wild Card if not for the confounding decisions of manager Ned Yost.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:47 PM EDT
He hit just .229 with a .659 OPS in 67 games after June 1 and batted .193 in September.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:34 PM EDT
But there’s a tale of bribery involved in all of this too.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:15 PM EDT
Starting pitchers Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole off the Wild Card game roster, which is fairly typical.
Oct 1, 2014, 12:50 PM EDT
Another night, another one-and-done game.
Oct 1, 2014, 12:11 PM EDT
Not a ton of glitzy names here. At least not yet.
Oct 1, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
The A’s went all-in and busted. Now what will Billy Beane do?
Oct 1, 2014, 10:40 AM EDT
Behold, one of the worst “hot takes” you’ll see.
- Angels announce ALDS rotation: Jered Weaver in Game 1, Matt Shoemaker for Game 2 0
- Wild Card Game: Giants vs. Pirates lineups 3
- The beauty of belief 30
- MLB to test new pace-of-play rules in the Arizona Fall League — including a pitch clock 36
- Playoff Reset: The National League Wild Card Game 15
- Video: Salvador Perez walks off Royals in Wild Card Game 3
- Small ball prevails … in a 9-8 game 25
- Royals complete thrilling comeback to defeat A’s in the American League Wild Card Game 74
- Hunter Pence dropped a bunch of F-bombs in his postgame speech. Good. (116)
- Barry Bonds discovered to be “glassing” — it’s just as bad as you think (90)
- Derek Jeter’s final game in Yankee Stadium could be cancelled because of rain (85)
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights (85)
- Previewing the 2014 Playoffs (80)