Oct 4, 2012, 8:23 AM EDT
If you just look at the raw numbers for Miguel Cabrera – a .330 batting average, 44 home runs and 139 RBI — you wouldn’t immediately say “best triple crown ever!” After all, Mickey Mantle hit 52 home runs to secure his. Lou Gehrig hit .363 in his triple crown year. Jimmie Foxx hit 163 RBI the year he did it. I’m not even sure that adjusting for era make Cabrera’s raw numbers one of the best triple crown years.
But there is something else besides those numbers that has convinced me that it is, Joe Sheehan’s argument about it in his latest newsletter:
Cabrera achieved the greatest Triple Crown ever. Forget the raw numbers or any single-number evaluation of his season, and consider that he beat out the largest fields of any winner. No one had won the Triple Crown since 1967, and that’s not a coincidence; it has nothing to do with specialization, the idea that there are more hitters for power and more for average. There are simply more hitters. It’s a math problem.
Expansion in 1969, 1977, 1993 and 1998, Joe notes, dramatically increased the number of players in the game and thus the number of guys in the hunt in triple crown categories each year. To climb to the top of any one of those lists, let alone all three, you have to beat out a lot more dudes.* Joe breaks down the specifics of that math, and it puts the significance of Cabrera’s accomplishment into perspective.
By the way: Joe does this kind of thing almost every day, plus much, much more. Just today, in addition to the Cabrera stuff, he talks about why the Rangers are not dead and, in fact, can be considered favorites to make the ALCS right now. Then he imagines Clayton Kershaw‘s free agent negotiations in a couple of years. Good stuff. If you are interested in it, I highly recommend subscribing to his newsletter.
*Note, this “there are a lot more teams and a lot more players out there” is also one of the things explaining why there are a lot more no hitters and perfect games these days too. In 1955 you had 16 teams playing a total of 1,232 major league games each year. In 2012 you have 30 teams playing 2,430. When you increase the number of players you make leading those players in any category harder, but at the same time, as you increase the number of games being played, you increase the chances of a given phenomenon happening. People tend to ignore this and instead look for explanations involving steroids, magic pitches and the decline of some traditional value they hold near and dear or whatever. It really doesn’t have to be that difficult.
Mar 11, 2014, 12:03 AM EDT
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2014 season. Next up: The Chicago Cubs. The Big Question: Is the wait almost over? It has been 105 long years since the north…
Mar 10, 2014, 10:41 PM EDT
George A. King III of the New York Post heard last month that the Yankees might look to deal a catcher before they head back north for Opening Day. That catcher could be Francisco Cervelli. According to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish, the 28-year-old Cervelli is drawing “lots of trade interest” from front offices around…
Mar 10, 2014, 9:35 PM EDT
The Orioles signed Manny Machado to a one-year, $519,000 contract renewal on Monday — standard operating procedure for a pre-arbitration player. The salary is $19,000 more than the major league minimum and Machado also gets a $100,000 bonus for winning the 2013 Platinum Glove Award in the American League. But he is not celebrating. According…
Mar 10, 2014, 8:28 PM EDT
Good news out of Dodgers camp Monday from MLB.com beat reporter Ken Gurnick … Greinke threw a bullpen session Monday and apparently felt no discomfort in his right calf muscle. He then went through some fielding drills and could pitch in an exhibition game this week, perhaps as early as Wednesday, although club officials are…
Mar 10, 2014, 7:14 PM EDT
White Sox manager Robin Ventura confirmed what everyone had already assumed Wednesday, naming ace lefty Chris Sale the club’s Opening Day starter according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Sale, the obvious choice for Ventura, boasts a spectacular 2.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 in 500 2/3 career major league innings. He tossed…
Mar 10, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
Cole Hamels arrived at the Phillies’ spring training complex last month with tendinitis in his left shoulder and then suffered a setback last Friday. He’s hoping this week will finally bring some amount of progress. CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury reports that Hamels is scheduled to toss a bullpen session Wednesday in camp. The ace left-hander had…
Mar 10, 2014, 5:32 PM EDT
No battle plan survives contact with the enemy, and with the Braves’ plans quickly becoming inoperative, they may be jumping in to the Ervin Santana uncertainty. Dave O’Brien of the AJC reports: Initially I didn’t think there was anything to the idea of the Braves pursuing him, but now with Beachy having more issues (he left today’s…
Mar 10, 2014, 5:01 PM EDT
You can buy an official MLB baseball for, like, $15 max. Or you can let your kid go flying down a hill in is wagon while you go chase a home run ball in a meaningless spring training game: Either way, really.
Mar 10, 2014, 3:06 PM EDT
The Braves looked great on paper heading into spring training. Too bad they don’t play baseball on paper. They play it on grass and dirt, and since they started doing that Atlanta has had two pitchers leave games early due to injury. Kris Medlen left a game yesterday due to a forearm strain. He’s having…
Mar 10, 2014, 1:32 PM EDT
Barry Bonds showed up at San Francisco Giant camp in Scottsdale today, where he will begin a week as a coach/instructor. As I type this, he’s sitting with Bruce Bochy for a press conference. Barry Bonds back in a Giants uniform. pic.twitter.com/x4AJ0ZhJmt — Pedro Gomez (@pedrogomezESPN) March 10, 2014 Having a guy who is among…
Mar 10, 2014, 12:18 PM EDT
Initial reports of Aledmys Diaz‘s deal with the Cardinals suggested he’d be getting at least $20 million over four seasons, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch now writes that the Cuban shortstop is getting significantly less upfront money. According to Goold it’s a four-year, $8 million deal, which is essentially utility infielder…
Mar 10, 2014, 11:21 AM EDT
The Fresno Grizzlies are going to wear an alternate/promotional jersey this year. They’re Awesome! Righteous! Bossa Nova! Um, Chevy Nova? No, they’re excellent! .@MattOtstot has the details on our #TMNT jerseys. Only place to get the scoop is tomorrow on @KSEE24 Sunrise. pic.twitter.com/QBZQl9zQD1 — Fresno Grizzlies (@FresnoGrizzlies) March 10, 2014 No, they’re not dignified or anything, but you can’t…
Mar 10, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT
Among the numerous Ervin Santana rumors swirling right now is that the Orioles remain in the mix to sign the free agent right-hander. Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com asked Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette about that specific rumor and his response was an interesting one: I really don’t know what’s real and…
Mar 10, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT
Sergio Romo has been one of the best relievers in baseball for six seasons now, posting a 2.27 ERA and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings for his career, but he’s gotten knocked around this spring while allowing 12 runs in three innings. That includes retiring zero of the five batters he faced in his last…
Mar 10, 2014, 9:47 AM EDT
Brandon Phillips‘ interview with MLB.com was noted mostly for his “how the [expletive] am I declining” comment, but John Fay of Cincinnati.com notes that Phillips is either lying or deluded about something else too: the source of his beef with local reporters. Phillips is not talking to the four daily beat guys who cover the…
Mar 10, 2014, 9:20 AM EDT
Matt Ehalt reports that Ike Davis now has a walking boot on his right leg. Davis has been sidelined with right calf tightness for a week. Walking boots tend not to suggest that the matter is improving. Between Davis’ calf and Lucas Duda’s hamstring barking, it would seem that the frontrunner for the Mets’ first base…
Mar 10, 2014, 8:52 AM EDT
David Laurila of FanGraphs has a fascinating interview with a former pitcher — now retired — about his PED use. It’s not clear whether this guy was a major leaguer, but his comments about PED use — extremely detailed comments about what they did for him and how they made him feel — refer to his…
Mar 10, 2014, 6:50 AM EDT
This is so weird. No one is supposed to take pictures or video in the clubhouse, yet here we have video of Juan Uribe at his locker. Seems odd. Oh, hello Hanley.
Mar 9, 2014, 11:30 PM EDT
ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted earlier that Ichiro Suzuki appears to be the odd man out in the Yankees’ outfield and adds that the Phillies could use outfield help. The Yankees, of course, will have recent free agent additions Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran in center and right, respectively, and Brett Gardner in left. Alfonso Soriano…
Mar 9, 2014, 10:25 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks took Trevor Bauer in the first round, third overall, in the 2011 draft. They sent him to the Indians in a three-team trade in December 2012. Manager Terry Francona sees why, even after Bauer has had back-to-back mediocre showings in limited Major League action, the D-Backs took him so early. Bauer has made…
- 2014 Preview: Chicago Cubs 1
- Manny Machado calls $519K salary for 2014 “disappointing” 34
- Kris Medlen leaves game with right forearm strain 18
- Cardinals sign Cuban middle infielder Aledmys Diaz to a four-year major league contract 60
- Cardinals and Matt Carpenter agree to a six-year, $52 million extension 12