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Braves and Rangers are favored in Wild Card playoff games

Oct 5, 2012, 10:47 AM EDT

gambling poster

I’d never recommend using betting lines for actual betting, but the Las Vegas odds do provide a clear picture of which teams are the favorites and which teams are the underdogs. And that can be valuable come playoff time, when every player on every team loves to say stuff like “no one thought we would win” and “we shocked the world” and all that.

For tonight’s Wild Card playoff games both home teams are favored, and by sizable margins.

Kris Medlen and the Braves are -170 favorites over Kyle Lohse and the Cardinals, which means you’d have to risk $170 to win $100 and Atlanta must win at least 63 percent of the time for that to be a profitable bet.

Yu Darvish and the Rangers are -190 favorites over Joe Saunders and the Orioles, which means you’d have to risk $190 to win $100 and Texas must win at least 66 percent of the time for that to be a profitable bet.

Now, those aren’t huge favorites because during the regular season there are regularly teams with -250 or even -275 lines and sometimes it goes as high as -300, but the Braves and Rangers are definitely expected to win tonight.

  1. kkolchak - Oct 5, 2012 at 11:05 AM

    Wow, way to go out on a limb there, Las Vegas. :D

    • paperlions - Oct 5, 2012 at 11:35 AM

      Betting lines aren’t designed to predict who will win, they are designed to get equal action on each side and to maximize book profits.

      • mrwillie - Oct 5, 2012 at 12:25 PM

        Yes, but no.

        Vegas picks a clear favorite, most of the time, but makes the lines in a way that the dog still sees some action. You’re not betting the winner, you’re betting the spread.

  2. mrwillie - Oct 5, 2012 at 12:20 PM

    As a Braves fan that gives me little comfort.

    I take comfort in real, tangible ways. Like the fact that I drank the last St. Louis born Budweiser in the fridge last night, and promptly stocked it with Sweet Water beer this morning. Nothing but Georgia beers tonight!

  3. stlouis1baseball - Oct 5, 2012 at 12:53 PM

    Willie: I can appreciate the Mojo you are trying to conjure up (or keep).
    But as I have stated many times…
    Medlen is long overdue for a loss (and the Braves as well when he starts).
    Don’t laugh…it’s what I am hanging my hat on.
    But good luck nonetheless! I just hope the Cardinals have more of it.

    • mrwillie - Oct 5, 2012 at 1:27 PM

      I understand the Medlen thing, trust me I do. I just hope we can extend that debt with the baseball gods a little bit longer. So no, I am not laughing.

      Best of luck to you as well, I’ll be watching the game with one of your fellow redbirds this evening who’s found his way to the east coast, I just hope I’ll be drinking one of those Georgia beers in celebration and not in sorrow. (y’all owe us one anyways after our gift to you last year)

  4. ndnut - Oct 5, 2012 at 1:41 PM

    stlouis1baseball, let’s also believe that the earth is due to spin the other way and that I’m due for an “A” on my Algebra test. Due never does.

    • stlouis1baseball - Oct 5, 2012 at 3:02 PM

      “Due never does.”
      Although I completely disagree…I love that. I am going to use it in the future.
      I will try to give you credit.
      But as far as the Earth spinning the other way…just a “little” bit different.
      Props on the stretch though.
      As far as your Algebra test…
      If you have been getting solid B’s…B+’s…then yeah…you are due for an A.
      As for Medlen..
      ANY way you slice it…when a team wins 23 straight games in which a dude starts…they are the epitome of being due to fall the other way. The law of averages if you will. Looong overdue.
      “Due never does.” Hahaha! Great stuff Man.
      Good luck tonight…I just hope the Cardinals have more of it.

  5. chumthumper - Oct 6, 2012 at 9:57 AM

    Wow. Only two choices and you got’em both wrong.

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