Oct 6, 2012, 8:30 AM EDT
You can’t predict baseball, but you can at least lay out the parameters. So let’s take a look at what the Giants and Reds have in store for us in the National League Division Series.
San Francisco Giants (94-68) vs. Cincinnati Reds (97-65)
Game 1 Saturday in San Francisco: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Cain
Game 2 Sunday in San Francisco: Bronson Arroyo vs. Madison Bumgarner
Game 3 Tuesday in Cincinnati: Undecided vs. Mat Latos
Game 4 (if necessary) Wednesday in Cincinnati
Game 5 (if necessary) Thursday in Cincinnati
Analysis: You have to like the Giants’ chances in Game 1, as Cain has a 2.62 ERA at home dating back to 2009. Only eight pitchers have been better during the same timespan. I’m not crazy about Arroyo going in Game 2, but Bumgarner allowed four earned runs or more in five out of his final seven starts. And that would worry me a bit if I was a Giants fan.
We know who the Reds will put out there for the first three games, but Bruce Bochy hasn’t announced who will start Game 3 because he has left open the possibility that Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong will pitch in relief at some point during the first two games of the series. It’s likely that Homer Bailey will start Game 4 for the Reds and while he was excellent down the stretch (including a no-hitter against the Pirates on September 28), he had a 5.16 ERA in 17 starts at home this year. Meanwhile, his 2.32 ERA on the road was the best among qualified starters. But enough of my second-guessing.
- The Reds took the season series 4-3 while outscoring the Giants 28-21.
- It’s critical for the Giants to get at least one, maybe both, of the games at AT&T Park, as the Reds finished tied with the Cardinals and Nationals for the best home record (50-31) in the National League.
- This might surprise you, but the Giants actually outscored the Reds (718-669) during the regular season. Of course, Dusty Baker relied on Drew Stubbs (.277 on-base percentage) and Zack Cozart (.288 on-base percentage) out of the top two spots in the order for the majority of the season. Oh, and the Reds only got 111 games out of Joey Votto. To be fair, Brandon Phillips has batted primarily out of the leadoff spot since Votto returned from the disabled list. He’s no on-base machine, but that’s still a pretty significant improvement for the top of the order.
- When Melky Cabrera was suspended for testing positive for synthetic testosterone, there were plenty of folks who were ready to write the Giants off as a potential playoff team. But they went 30-15 over their final 45 games. Buster Posey has led the charge in his first season back from a devastating ankle injury, winning his first career batting crown* while emerging as one of the favorites for National League MVP, but Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan have also been pretty good. Hunter Pence somehow managed 45 RBI in 59 games after coming over from the Phillies, despite batting just .219/.287/.384 with a .671 OPS. Pablo Sandoval finally showed some pop down the stretch, so perhaps he’s finally back on track from hamate bone surgery. Still, relying on Gregor Blanco and Xavier Nady in left field has to catch up with the Giants at some point, doesn’t it?
- What are we going to get from Lincecum? He finished the season with a 5.18 ERA, the fourth-highest among qualified starters. And while he had better results during the second half (3.83 ERA), he walked 40 batters in 89 1/3 innings, including 22 in 35 innings in September. He had a 6.43 ERA on the road this season while allowing 16 homers in 84 innings, so a start at Great American Ballpark could be good news for the Reds.
- Joey Votto doesn’t have a home run since June 24, but he batted .316/.505/.421 with eight doubles and a 20/28 K/BB ratio over 105 plate appearances after returning from knee surgery. While the Reds would sure love for him to provide some power alongside the likes of Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick, he’s still one of the toughest outs in the game. It says something when you lead the league in walks despite missing two months.
- The Giants were fourth in the National League this season with 118 stolen bases (that number includes 13 from Melky Cabrera) while the Reds were 14th with 87 swipes. It’s fair to expect the Giants to be a bit more active on the basepaths, but remember that Ryan Hanigan threw out attempted basestealers at a major-league best rate of 48 percent this season.
- Buoyed by strong performances by Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton, Reds relievers finished first in the majors this season with a 2.65 ERA. And that’s despite losing closer Ryan Madson to Tommy John surgery during spring training. Meanwhile, the Giants were eighth in the National League with a 3.56 bullpen ERA. Bruce Bochy has relied on multiple relievers out of the closer role since Brian Wilson had Tommy John surgery, including Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt. I don’t think this matchup is as stark as the numbers would have you believe, but I would rather be on the side with Chapman assuming he’s over his recent shoulder fatigue.
Boy, this is a tough one. I really think this has the chance to be the most competitive division series matchup. If the Reds can get one of the two games in San Francisco, they should have the advantage coming home. And I think they’ll pull it off. The Reds might be the best all-around team in the entire playoffs.
REDS WIN THE SERIES 3-2
Apr 16, 2014, 7:13 PM EDT
Braves closer Craig Kimbrel was unavailable to pitch on Monday because of soreness in his right shoulder. But it’s apparently only a minor issue and he expects to be fine going forward.
Apr 16, 2014, 6:35 PM EDT
From James Wagner of the Washington Post comes word that Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper has been scratched from the club’s starting lineup on Wednesday night against the Marlins because of tightness in his left quadriceps muscle.
Apr 16, 2014, 6:11 PM EDT
Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is back in the starting lineup for Wednesday’s game against the White Sox after getting a cortisone shot Monday for the inflammation in his left wrist.
Apr 16, 2014, 5:04 PM EDT
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
Apr 16, 2014, 4:16 PM EDT
Cardinals right-hander Joe Kelly left today’s start against the Brewers after tweaking his hamstring trying to beat out an infield single in the sixth inning.
Apr 16, 2014, 3:59 PM EDT
That’s 28 strikeouts in his first three big league starts.
Apr 16, 2014, 3:34 PM EDT
Cueto set a career high for strikeouts as he tossed his third career shutout
Apr 16, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
Completion is set for February 2017
Apr 16, 2014, 2:44 PM EDT
Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata just made a great catch to rob Brayan Pena of an extra-base hit, but unfortunately he slammed into an unpadded portion of the wall in Cincinnati and had to leave the game.
Apr 16, 2014, 2:33 PM EDT
You can spend all you want on a 30 year-old free agent, but be careful how much you spend on an 16-year-old prospect.
Apr 16, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
The two most dominant pitchers in the AL face off tonight. Given their ages, their contract status and their presence in the same division, expect this to grow into a wonderful rivalry over the coming years.
Apr 16, 2014, 1:33 PM EDT
The Dodgers have an embarrassment of outfield riches.
Apr 16, 2014, 12:38 PM EDT
I don’t know the real Brian Wilson, but even if this isn’t it, remember: we are what we pretend to be.
Apr 16, 2014, 12:16 PM EDT
Nick Franklin lost his job to Robinson Cano, but now he’s headed back to Seattle.
Apr 16, 2014, 11:32 AM EDT
Kicked off by an anecdote you probably won’t believe.
Apr 16, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
To celebrate the 25th anniversary of “Seinfeld” starting on NBC the Mets’ Single-A affiliate, the Brooklyn Cyclones of the New York-Penn League, are hosting a “Seinfeld Night” at the ballpark on July 5.
Apr 16, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT
Already down an outfielder following Josh Hamilton’s thumb injury, the Angels have placed Kole Calhoun on the disabled list after he injured his ankle last night.
Apr 16, 2014, 10:32 AM EDT
The table on which the money is placed in Seattle is going to go into the table Hall of Fame. Same Hall of Fame that has that one in New York Cliff Lee left all that money on. Underrated Hall of Fame, really.
Apr 16, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT
Hall of Famer George Brett and Lorde are buddies now, because why wouldn’t they be?
Apr 16, 2014, 9:45 AM EDT
At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
- Dustin Pedroia returns to Red Sox starting lineup 2
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 94
- Jose Reyes is on track to be activated Friday 11
- Dustin Pedroia given cortisone injection for sore left wrist, aiming to return Wednesday 1
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists 230
- Hank Aaron is getting vile racist hate mail in retaliation for pointing out that racism still exists (230)
- The Red Sox are still steamed that a PED guy played against them in the playoffs last year (129)
- Doug Glanville’s story about being racially profiled at his own home (125)
- We don’t need to celebrate Barry Bonds, but we should avoid whitewashing baseball history (122)
- There is still a racial divide in baseball (105)