Oct 6, 2012, 8:30 AM EDT
You can’t predict baseball, but you can at least lay out the parameters. So let’s take a look at what the Giants and Reds have in store for us in the National League Division Series.
San Francisco Giants (94-68) vs. Cincinnati Reds (97-65)
Game 1 Saturday in San Francisco: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Cain
Game 2 Sunday in San Francisco: Bronson Arroyo vs. Madison Bumgarner
Game 3 Tuesday in Cincinnati: Undecided vs. Mat Latos
Game 4 (if necessary) Wednesday in Cincinnati
Game 5 (if necessary) Thursday in Cincinnati
Analysis: You have to like the Giants’ chances in Game 1, as Cain has a 2.62 ERA at home dating back to 2009. Only eight pitchers have been better during the same timespan. I’m not crazy about Arroyo going in Game 2, but Bumgarner allowed four earned runs or more in five out of his final seven starts. And that would worry me a bit if I was a Giants fan.
We know who the Reds will put out there for the first three games, but Bruce Bochy hasn’t announced who will start Game 3 because he has left open the possibility that Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong will pitch in relief at some point during the first two games of the series. It’s likely that Homer Bailey will start Game 4 for the Reds and while he was excellent down the stretch (including a no-hitter against the Pirates on September 28), he had a 5.16 ERA in 17 starts at home this year. Meanwhile, his 2.32 ERA on the road was the best among qualified starters. But enough of my second-guessing.
- The Reds took the season series 4-3 while outscoring the Giants 28-21.
- It’s critical for the Giants to get at least one, maybe both, of the games at AT&T Park, as the Reds finished tied with the Cardinals and Nationals for the best home record (50-31) in the National League.
- This might surprise you, but the Giants actually outscored the Reds (718-669) during the regular season. Of course, Dusty Baker relied on Drew Stubbs (.277 on-base percentage) and Zack Cozart (.288 on-base percentage) out of the top two spots in the order for the majority of the season. Oh, and the Reds only got 111 games out of Joey Votto. To be fair, Brandon Phillips has batted primarily out of the leadoff spot since Votto returned from the disabled list. He’s no on-base machine, but that’s still a pretty significant improvement for the top of the order.
- When Melky Cabrera was suspended for testing positive for synthetic testosterone, there were plenty of folks who were ready to write the Giants off as a potential playoff team. But they went 30-15 over their final 45 games. Buster Posey has led the charge in his first season back from a devastating ankle injury, winning his first career batting crown* while emerging as one of the favorites for National League MVP, but Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan have also been pretty good. Hunter Pence somehow managed 45 RBI in 59 games after coming over from the Phillies, despite batting just .219/.287/.384 with a .671 OPS. Pablo Sandoval finally showed some pop down the stretch, so perhaps he’s finally back on track from hamate bone surgery. Still, relying on Gregor Blanco and Xavier Nady in left field has to catch up with the Giants at some point, doesn’t it?
- What are we going to get from Lincecum? He finished the season with a 5.18 ERA, the fourth-highest among qualified starters. And while he had better results during the second half (3.83 ERA), he walked 40 batters in 89 1/3 innings, including 22 in 35 innings in September. He had a 6.43 ERA on the road this season while allowing 16 homers in 84 innings, so a start at Great American Ballpark could be good news for the Reds.
- Joey Votto doesn’t have a home run since June 24, but he batted .316/.505/.421 with eight doubles and a 20/28 K/BB ratio over 105 plate appearances after returning from knee surgery. While the Reds would sure love for him to provide some power alongside the likes of Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick, he’s still one of the toughest outs in the game. It says something when you lead the league in walks despite missing two months.
- The Giants were fourth in the National League this season with 118 stolen bases (that number includes 13 from Melky Cabrera) while the Reds were 14th with 87 swipes. It’s fair to expect the Giants to be a bit more active on the basepaths, but remember that Ryan Hanigan threw out attempted basestealers at a major-league best rate of 48 percent this season.
- Buoyed by strong performances by Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton, Reds relievers finished first in the majors this season with a 2.65 ERA. And that’s despite losing closer Ryan Madson to Tommy John surgery during spring training. Meanwhile, the Giants were eighth in the National League with a 3.56 bullpen ERA. Bruce Bochy has relied on multiple relievers out of the closer role since Brian Wilson had Tommy John surgery, including Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt. I don’t think this matchup is as stark as the numbers would have you believe, but I would rather be on the side with Chapman assuming he’s over his recent shoulder fatigue.
Boy, this is a tough one. I really think this has the chance to be the most competitive division series matchup. If the Reds can get one of the two games in San Francisco, they should have the advantage coming home. And I think they’ll pull it off. The Reds might be the best all-around team in the entire playoffs.
REDS WIN THE SERIES 3-2
Jul 1, 2015, 10:38 PM EDT
Carlos Carrasco had a no-hitter Wednesday with one strike to go. When this happened …
Jul 1, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
We have some history in the works Wednesday night in Tampa Bay.
Jul 1, 2015, 9:32 PM EDT
You’re gonna want to see this play that Manny Machado pulled off in Wednesday night’s game …
Jul 1, 2015, 8:47 PM EDT
Cardinals left-hander Jaime Garcia was unable to perform scheduled throwing workouts on Saturday and Monday due to cramping in his left groin — the same issue that drove him from his last start Wednesday night against the Marlins.
Jul 1, 2015, 7:21 PM EDT
Stoneman was the Angels’ general manager in 2002, when the the franchise won its last World Series championship.
Jul 1, 2015, 6:38 PM EDT
Young was batting just .270/.289/.339 with two home runs in 180 plate appearances this season for the Orioles. The 29-year-old hit .302/.337/.442 with seven home runs in 255 plate appearances last season.
Jul 1, 2015, 5:23 PM EDT
One of the best hitting prospects in baseball.
Jul 1, 2015, 4:03 PM EDT
Cueto allowed one run over eight innings while striking out eight.
Jul 1, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Silent Cal chooses to run.
Jul 1, 2015, 3:13 PM EDT
For better or worse, owner Arte Moreno is standing with Scioscia.
Jul 1, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT
“The most ridiculous no-hitter in baseball history”
Jul 1, 2015, 1:15 PM EDT
Santana has been “rehabbing” in the minors.
Jul 1, 2015, 12:32 PM EDT
Bruce Sutter retired when Ronald Reagan was still president. He’s still being paid by the Braves.
Jul 1, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Jul 1, 2015, 10:42 AM EDT
A book is coming out which is telling us just how bad a teammate Yasiel Puig has been. Should we care?
Jul 1, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
He was runner-up in 2009.
Jul 1, 2015, 9:12 AM EDT
Which, in reality, is a really dumb thing to mock the Mets for.
Jul 1, 2015, 8:07 AM EDT
It seems that if you battle with Mike Scioscia, you’re going to lose.
Jul 1, 2015, 7:31 AM EDT
Shutouts are rare in baseball these days. M’s rookie Mike Montgomery has two in a row.
Jun 30, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
Banuelos has rebuilt some of his early-career hype this summer with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett, Georgia, posting 2.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 82 2/3 innings (15 starts).
- Video: Joey Butler breaks up Carlos Carrasco’s no-hitter with two outs in the ninth inning 0
- Bill Stoneman taking over as Angels’ interim GM 8
- Jerry Dipoto loses power struggle with Mike Scioscia, steps down as Angels general manager 31
- Bobby Bonilla’s isn’t the only deferred money deal in the game. And isn’t even the worst. 48
- What Yasiel Puig being a pain in the butt means. And what it doesn’t mean. 71
- Report: Jerry Dipoto “definitely out” as Angels GM 75
- And That Happened: Tuesday’s scores and highlights 46
- Rangers activate Josh Hamilton from disabled list, send prospect Joey Gallo to Triple-A 12
- With the same-sex marriage decision, the San Francisco Giants get another big win (276)
- Joe Maddon is the latest manager to rip instant replay. He’s got a point. (110)
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- Report: Jerry Dipoto “definitely out” as Angels GM (76)
- There was a super ump show in Chicago yesterday (75)