Oct 6, 2012, 8:30 AM EDT
You can’t predict baseball, but you can at least lay out the parameters. So let’s take a look at what the Giants and Reds have in store for us in the National League Division Series.
San Francisco Giants (94-68) vs. Cincinnati Reds (97-65)
Game 1 Saturday in San Francisco: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Cain
Game 2 Sunday in San Francisco: Bronson Arroyo vs. Madison Bumgarner
Game 3 Tuesday in Cincinnati: Undecided vs. Mat Latos
Game 4 (if necessary) Wednesday in Cincinnati
Game 5 (if necessary) Thursday in Cincinnati
Analysis: You have to like the Giants’ chances in Game 1, as Cain has a 2.62 ERA at home dating back to 2009. Only eight pitchers have been better during the same timespan. I’m not crazy about Arroyo going in Game 2, but Bumgarner allowed four earned runs or more in five out of his final seven starts. And that would worry me a bit if I was a Giants fan.
We know who the Reds will put out there for the first three games, but Bruce Bochy hasn’t announced who will start Game 3 because he has left open the possibility that Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong will pitch in relief at some point during the first two games of the series. It’s likely that Homer Bailey will start Game 4 for the Reds and while he was excellent down the stretch (including a no-hitter against the Pirates on September 28), he had a 5.16 ERA in 17 starts at home this year. Meanwhile, his 2.32 ERA on the road was the best among qualified starters. But enough of my second-guessing.
- The Reds took the season series 4-3 while outscoring the Giants 28-21.
- It’s critical for the Giants to get at least one, maybe both, of the games at AT&T Park, as the Reds finished tied with the Cardinals and Nationals for the best home record (50-31) in the National League.
- This might surprise you, but the Giants actually outscored the Reds (718-669) during the regular season. Of course, Dusty Baker relied on Drew Stubbs (.277 on-base percentage) and Zack Cozart (.288 on-base percentage) out of the top two spots in the order for the majority of the season. Oh, and the Reds only got 111 games out of Joey Votto. To be fair, Brandon Phillips has batted primarily out of the leadoff spot since Votto returned from the disabled list. He’s no on-base machine, but that’s still a pretty significant improvement for the top of the order.
- When Melky Cabrera was suspended for testing positive for synthetic testosterone, there were plenty of folks who were ready to write the Giants off as a potential playoff team. But they went 30-15 over their final 45 games. Buster Posey has led the charge in his first season back from a devastating ankle injury, winning his first career batting crown* while emerging as one of the favorites for National League MVP, but Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan have also been pretty good. Hunter Pence somehow managed 45 RBI in 59 games after coming over from the Phillies, despite batting just .219/.287/.384 with a .671 OPS. Pablo Sandoval finally showed some pop down the stretch, so perhaps he’s finally back on track from hamate bone surgery. Still, relying on Gregor Blanco and Xavier Nady in left field has to catch up with the Giants at some point, doesn’t it?
- What are we going to get from Lincecum? He finished the season with a 5.18 ERA, the fourth-highest among qualified starters. And while he had better results during the second half (3.83 ERA), he walked 40 batters in 89 1/3 innings, including 22 in 35 innings in September. He had a 6.43 ERA on the road this season while allowing 16 homers in 84 innings, so a start at Great American Ballpark could be good news for the Reds.
- Joey Votto doesn’t have a home run since June 24, but he batted .316/.505/.421 with eight doubles and a 20/28 K/BB ratio over 105 plate appearances after returning from knee surgery. While the Reds would sure love for him to provide some power alongside the likes of Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick, he’s still one of the toughest outs in the game. It says something when you lead the league in walks despite missing two months.
- The Giants were fourth in the National League this season with 118 stolen bases (that number includes 13 from Melky Cabrera) while the Reds were 14th with 87 swipes. It’s fair to expect the Giants to be a bit more active on the basepaths, but remember that Ryan Hanigan threw out attempted basestealers at a major-league best rate of 48 percent this season.
- Buoyed by strong performances by Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton, Reds relievers finished first in the majors this season with a 2.65 ERA. And that’s despite losing closer Ryan Madson to Tommy John surgery during spring training. Meanwhile, the Giants were eighth in the National League with a 3.56 bullpen ERA. Bruce Bochy has relied on multiple relievers out of the closer role since Brian Wilson had Tommy John surgery, including Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt. I don’t think this matchup is as stark as the numbers would have you believe, but I would rather be on the side with Chapman assuming he’s over his recent shoulder fatigue.
Boy, this is a tough one. I really think this has the chance to be the most competitive division series matchup. If the Reds can get one of the two games in San Francisco, they should have the advantage coming home. And I think they’ll pull it off. The Reds might be the best all-around team in the entire playoffs.
REDS WIN THE SERIES 3-2
Apr 26, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Jose Abreu, one might say, is good at hitting baseballs.
Apr 26, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
Max Scherzer made an argument for bringing the DH to the National League.
Apr 26, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
Perhaps Phillies GM Ruben Amaro was right to hold onto Cole Hamels.
Apr 26, 2015, 8:39 PM EDT
Alex Rodriguez hit his 659th career home run on Sunday night against the Mets, leaving him one shy of tying Willie Mays.
Apr 26, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Alex Gordon made an exceptional catch to help Edinson Volquez in Sunday’s game against the White Sox.
Apr 26, 2015, 6:56 PM EDT
Steve Bartman, is that you?
Apr 26, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
The Orioles set a club record for runs scored and the Red Sox starting rotation continues to falter.
Apr 26, 2015, 5:17 PM EDT
As first reported by Jeff Hem, the play-by-play announcer for the Triple-A Nashville Sounds, the Athletics have signed veteran infielder Ryan Roberts to a minor league contract.
Apr 26, 2015, 4:22 PM EDT
Graveman allowed six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings Saturday in a loss to the Astros, falling to 1-2 on the season with an 8.27 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in 16 1/3 total frames (four starts).
Apr 26, 2015, 3:15 PM EDT
And no, I don’t say that just because Adam Wainwright has been lost for the season due to an injury sustained while hitting.
Apr 26, 2015, 2:58 PM EDT
Two important Dodgers are now on the shelf.
Apr 26, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Scherzer jammed his right thumb during an at-bat Thursday afternoon against the Cardinals. It doesn’t sound like a serious injury, but the $210 million right-hander isn’t going to be rushed back.
Apr 26, 2015, 1:02 PM EDT
Last week, it looked like Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista might be headed to the 15-day disabled list with a right shoulder strain. He has now missed five straight games, but the news Sunday was good …
Apr 26, 2015, 12:15 PM EDT
Cardinals right-hander Mitch Harris is the first graduate of the United States Naval Academy to appear in a major league game since 1921.
Apr 26, 2015, 11:29 AM EDT
The 28-year-old first baseman and outfielder will report to the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma City.
Apr 26, 2015, 10:40 AM EDT
Dodgers right-hander Brandon McCarthy called for a trainer immediately after serving up a three-run homer to Padres slugger Justin Upton in the bottom of the sixth inning Saturday night at Petco Park.
Apr 26, 2015, 9:51 AM EDT
It was a long, tense Saturday night at Baltimore’s Camden Yards, where the home team needed extra innings to beat the Red Sox inside the park and thousands of protesters angry over the death of Freddie Gray made their presence felt outside.
Apr 26, 2015, 9:24 AM EDT
The official word — for now — from the Cardinals is that ace right-hander Adam Wainwright left his start Saturday night against the Brewers because of a “left ankle injury.” But watch the video for yourself …
Apr 26, 2015, 8:37 AM EDT
It’s getting uglier and uglier for the Brew Crew.
Apr 25, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Hisashi Iwakuma could miss up to a month after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his right lat muscle.
- Alex Rodriguez hits 659th career home run, now one shy of tying Willie Mays 15
- Pitchers batting is dumb and the DH should be universal 238
- Max Scherzer doubtful for next start due to thumb injury 3
- Protesters converge on Oriole Park at Camden Yards 141
- It sure sounds like Adam Wainwright suffered a torn Achilles tendon on Saturday night 40
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 33
- Report: Rangers will pay Josh Hamilton less than $7 million; deal includes opt-out after two years 98
- Suspensions announced for Thursday’s brawl between the White Sox and Royals 78
- Pitchers batting is dumb and the DH should be universal (247)
- The early leaders in MLB’s “Franchise Four” thing have been announced (166)
- The Royals and White Sox had a benches-clearing fracas, five players ejected (155)
- Protesters converge on Oriole Park at Camden Yards (149)
- Kelvin Herrera gets a five-game suspension; Yordano Ventura fined (133)