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Soggy forecast on tap for Game 7 of the NLCS

Oct 22, 2012, 11:33 AM EDT

Given that the World Series starts on Wendesday, you can bet that the powers that be — not to mention the soon-to-be-traveling Detroit Tigers — want Game 7 of the NLCS to go down tonight. At the moment, however, there is some reason for concern. Here is the hourly forecast for game time:

source:

That’s from Weather.com.  Other sources have a higher percentage chance of precipitation.  As usual when weather comes up in baseball, I asked my dad, who is a retired meteorologist, which source he trusts the most.  His answer: “The hell do I know? I’ve been retired for nine years.”

  1. tuftsb - Oct 22, 2012 at 11:59 AM

    Your average SF Giants fan reaction:

  2. Detroit Michael - Oct 22, 2012 at 12:01 PM

    Inspired by your closing paragraph …

    In Nate Silver’s book, he concludes that weather.com exaggerates a low chance of precipitation (e.g. if there’s a 5% chance, weather.com might report 20% chance instead) but other than that he did not identify a known bias. Looking at weather.gov will produce a more unbiased forecast, but the website isn’t as nice. Local television weather forecasts may exaggerate greatly the chances of precipitation all along the spectrum.

    • sdelmonte - Oct 22, 2012 at 12:09 PM

      Makes some sense to exaggerate. If you over-predict, people are more likely to be prepared for rain, and to not be annoyed when you said it wouldn’t rain even though it did. But it’s still not exactly honest, is it?

      • stex52 - Oct 22, 2012 at 1:23 PM

        A less severe example of what they do with hurricanes on the Gulf Coast. Even when they are highly confident of probability cones, they overpredict the threatened area to prevent the possibility of anyone who might be affected being lulled into staying through a storm. A matter of liability and one also of conscience.

        I see the same thing working with upping your predicted rain probabilities, just so people are prepared.

      • Detroit Michael - Oct 22, 2012 at 1:40 PM

        That’s right. Nate Silver makes these points in his book, that television stations may believe that their viewership (and revenue) will increase if they exaggerate the probability of precipitation.

  3. geoknows - Oct 22, 2012 at 12:17 PM

    The Weather Channel is the worst place to get a local forecast, in my experience. You’re way better off checking with a local forecaster than a national one.

  4. steve7921 - Oct 22, 2012 at 12:26 PM

    There are no weather forecasters…they are all weather reporters!

  5. cur68 - Oct 22, 2012 at 12:41 PM

    Some really informative comments here about weather and reporting. Keeping in this scientific and objective vein, I think that it is once again time to ask..nay DEMAND that you, Craig Calcaterra, offer a sincere, abject, lengthy and detailed apology to Aquaman. Until this happens we will see the greatest games of our times soaked under never ending curtains of water. Do it for baseball, man. I’m sick of the rain already.

  6. Marty - Oct 22, 2012 at 12:50 PM

    You have to think MLB will try to get this in tonight any way they can.

    Some forecasts have rain ending late morning with occasional drizzle. Hopefully the case.

  7. APBA Guy - Oct 22, 2012 at 1:56 PM

    Sunny right now in San Mateo, but some seriously ominous clouds all around. The people on my floor in their Orange and Black are hyped and ready. Maybe they can scare away the bad weather.

  8. bayarea510 - Oct 22, 2012 at 2:23 PM

    Well it was ugly during my morning commute from the East Bay to the Peninsula but it’s nice and sunny right now.

  9. sisqsage - Oct 22, 2012 at 2:24 PM

    The TV guys ever-present disclaimer is “Meteorology is not an exact science”.
    What is?

  10. APBA Guy - Oct 22, 2012 at 3:39 PM

    Lunchtime SF forecast-local news:

    http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Rain-likely-to-let-up-for-Game-7-3971054.php

  11. lks311 - Oct 22, 2012 at 3:48 PM

    As a Tigers’ fan, I hope it’s a splish-splash good time tonight and they finish sometime around, oh say, 2:00am local time. Let it rain, let it rain…let it rain.

  12. sabatimus - Oct 22, 2012 at 4:14 PM

    I think Wednesday SHOULD be spelled Wendesday–that’s how people pronounce it anyway.

  13. allforfunnplay - Oct 22, 2012 at 5:38 PM

    eh, it’s partly cloudy with patches of blue skies overhead right now. it’s turned into a fairly pleasant day. the field may be a little soggy but the weather should be cool and mostly rain free tonight.

    i thought it was funny when the Giants left for St. Louis. While we were watching the rain delayed game in St. Louis a heat wave set record highs in the upper 90’s in some parts of the Bay Area. San Francisco hit the mid 80’s which is very warm for the city. But the very day the Giants come back home to play, the weather changed again Temperatures dropped last night; I went from having a fan in the window to cool off to bundling up inside to stay warm.

    • allforfunnplay - Oct 22, 2012 at 6:48 PM

      i take it back. it’s pouring right now.

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