Oct 24, 2012, 1:40 PM EDT
Japanese high school pitcher Shohei Otani made headlines earlier this week by telling teams not to select him in the Nippon Professional Baseball Draft because he plans to sign directly with an MLB team rather than beginning his career in Japan.
Otani is considered a very good prospect with lots of upside, but exactly how good and exactly how much upside? Baseball America‘s international prospect guru Ben Badler wrote a lengthy article about top Japanese prospects that includes a scouting report on Otani:
At 6-foot-4, 190 pounds, Otani is a strong, physical pitcher with square shoulders and a durable body. … Otani has great arm speed and arm action with a loose, easy delivery. His fastball sits around 92-96 mph and has touched 98. Pitching every fifth day, Otani’s fastball may sit in the lower end of that range, but his power arm is a major draw for scouts. …
Scouts were mixed on Otani’s offspeed pitches. His best secondary offering is his tight slider that he throws around 82-85 mph. He also mixes in a splitter and a big, slow curveball that so many Japanese pitchers seem to throw. The one area where scouts consistently said Otani needs work is on his command, as he’s prone to bouts of wildness and isn’t as advanced in that area compared to the U.S. high school pitchers who went in the first round in the draft this year.
Because of the changes to the collective bargaining agreement teams are limited in what they can offer Otani, capping his potential signing bonus at just under $3 million. Badler considers him a late first-round talent and like most high school pitchers he’d be years away from the majors, so it’ll be interesting to see how many teams are willing to devote their entire international prospect budget to Otani.