Then I lose one more game and go ice fishing with Brown Dog on the Upper Peninsula until February. But boy, do I feel better about myself.

Good luck to the Tigers in 2013 but the 2012 season belongs to the San Francisco Giants.

There is nothing unusual about a 4 game winning streak. If teams have won 4 straight to sweep the World Series, which has happened 19 times since 1903, why can’t they win 4 straight after being down 3-0 in games? Unless someone thinks that being down 3-0 is strong enough evidence that one team is clearly better than the other, or that momentum is a major factor, I don’t see the difference. (And it hasn’t only happened when one team was by consensus clearly better.)

In fact, there have been other instances when teams won 4 straight World Series games. For example, in 1996 the Yankees were down 2-0 but then swept the Braves. Why is it so unlikely to happen when a team is down 3-0? Is there really a reason or is it simply a curiosity, and thus without predictive value, that it has never happened that particular way

Naturally, when two good teams are playing each other, it is unlikely that one team will dominate. And it is possible that there are specific matchups which make one team clearly a favorite. But when the series started, how many thought it likely that the Giants would win 3 straight? We see now that they have played better in a number of ways, but is that evidence of superiority or simply an instance of a 3 game anomaly?

I guess all the Detroiters will now have to root for the Lions instead. Oh, wait..

So far, it appears the Giants are a much better team-over 3 games. How likely was it-before the series started-that they would win 3 straight games, especially having to face Verlander while they pitched Zito?

If it is possible that Detroit wins tonight, then they simply have to win game 5, Verlander vs. Zito. Is it a given the Giants win that game?

How many times during a season does a team win 4 straight games? Or lose 4 straight? Or win 3 straight and then lose 4 straight? Or lose 3 straight and then win 4 straight? In fact, as an example, the White Sox lost 5 straight to Boston & Detroit and immediately won 5 in a row vs. Minnesota & Texas. Later in the season, they were swept in 3 games by KC before a 6 game win streak vs the Yankees and Seattle.

Naturally, against an excellent team like SF and with flaws that analysts saw in Detroit even before the season started, it is not easy to defeat the Giants over and over. But for now, the only issue is to win tonight. After that, they have to win a Verlander start and if they do, they have to win a Fister start. I don’t think a history of 23 incidents provides much support for the view that it is even unlikely let alone nearly impossible.

At least not any more unlikely that Detroit would shut down the #1 offense in the AL over 4 games or that SF, whose whose pitching/defense was tied for 4th best in the NL, can, over 7 games, shut down a Detroit offense that was tied for 4th best in the AL.

I am not predicting a Tiger victory. And I am enormously impressed by the Giants play in the post-season. They deserve accolades galore. But I think we have to wait to the end before bestowing the wreath. The old saw holds; “A team is rarely as bad as it looks when on a losing streak or as good as it appears while it is winning.”

[NSFW and pardon the ads]