Comments on: Zack Greinke may not be worth all of the fuss

By: simonfoster231171

simonfoster231171 — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 07:41:32 +0000

If he can’t pitch without having a brain fade in relatively small markets (Milwaukee et al), why in hell would a big-market team actively look to sign him? Granted he’s pitching in LA at the moment, but he hasn’t exactly been immune from these sorts of things this season (ball spiking comes to mind) …

By: pauleee

pauleee — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 17:15:47 +0000

Well, the Angels HAVE to take a shot at him, we’re already losing 2 other starters. And they’ll pay, just watch. What other choice do they have?

Wilson & Weaver. And pray for rheumatic fever?

By: sfm073

sfm073 — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 14:34:40 +0000

What a bunch of nerds arguing about stats. Greinke is a good pitcher, but whatever team signs him will be regretting his contract.

By: churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged

churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 14:30:10 +0000

so it’s not ok to do the last 3 years, but it is ok to include the 4th year (by far Grienke’s best)? That seems idiotic at best.

No, that’s not what I said at all. I said Matt intentionally only did three years to make his point look good, because he is intentionally leaving off Greinke’s best year. Look at the spreadsheet I linked, only one person comes close to the ERA+ number (Kuroda) and one person comes close to the K/BB number (Haren).

I also mentioned Matt could have regressed the numbers with a 25/50/75/100 split over the last four years to get a better idea of how each pitcher has pitched recently. But to intentionally leave out a CY season, and then say “look at all these similar pitchers” is disingenuous.

By: somekat

somekat — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 14:05:08 +0000

so it’s not ok to do the last 3 years, but it is ok to include the 4th year (by far Grienke’s best)? That seems idiotic at best.

I see nothing wrong with this blog, a 3 years window seems reasonable when looking at a pitcher. Why would you sign someone based on 4 years ago, when the last 3 have been signifigantly worse? That will just lead to a team of overpaid players that would have dominated 4 years ago, but area bad team today.

The whole point of this blog is that someone is goign to vastly overpay for Grienke. That it obvious, so I see nothing wrong with it

By: somekat

somekat — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 13:59:46 +0000

Show me the pticher who has been given a massive, long term deal when he is going to be 38 when the season starts?

By: randygnyc

randygnyc — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 13:58:47 +0000

Worth the fuss? Probably. $25MM P/Y? I’m not convinced. It depends where and with whom. He, more than most. I am convinced that many GM’s think he’s “fragile”. I can’t see teams like the Red Sox or Yankees getting involved. My long shot bet, the white sox.

By: Alex K

Alex K — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 13:52:06 +0000

Kuroda is also more than 8.5 years older than Greinke. That has a lot to do with it.

By: kkolchak

kkolchak — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 13:45:14 +0000

Plus, Pavano has the all important “Ex-Expos Factor” going for him. Not many of those left these days.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 12:58:53 +0000

To give some examples of performance vs results:

If a pitcher gives up 3 line drives that are all caught, he didn’t pitch well that inning as he gave up hard contact, which most often results in hits. The result was nice, but not indicative of what will happen if he continues to give up line drives.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 12:56:51 +0000

Because pitcher wins is a relatively useless stat to measure individual performance. It is a function of team, not individual.

By: manchestermiracle

manchestermiracle — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 12:55:00 +0000

I find it interesting that in this entire thread there is no mention of his won-loss record. You know, that stat everybody refers to when the subject is the Cy Young? It’s a huge selling point when someone has a favorite they want to push for that award, even though a pitcher has little to no control over how many runs his team scores, but when the subject is a bit heavier (like how much money he’s going to make) it disappears entirely.

By: churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged

churchoftheperpetuallyoutraged — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 12:22:03 +0000

With something like a record setting $7.6B in revenue last year and a new TV deal worth roughly $25M a year to teams, i hope your suggestion of doing something its to get out of the way of this money making machine.

By: buffalo65

buffalo65 — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 12:19:04 +0000

As true as this is I will still be happy when he signs in Toronto.

By: bigtrav425

bigtrav425 — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 11:47:27 +0000

Just another reason why contracts and money are getting out of control so badly something needs to be done

By: Jim Abbott's Right-Hand Man

Jim Abbott's Right-Hand Man — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 07:40:13 +0000

Yeah, it’s not too hard to cherry-pick stats to find one to back up an argument.

I could bring up that Randall Cunningham took an NFL-record 100-something sacks in a single season and argue this made him one of the most immobile quarterbacks ever, just a statue in the pocket back there. But anybody who watched him play knows that stat doesn’t mean what I’m saying it means.

By: ezthinking

ezthinking — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 07:15:48 +0000

Matt likes his 3 year splits because ESPN gives you that stat. To get any more he’d have to do actual research.

By: brewcrewfan54

brewcrewfan54 — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 05:16:16 +0000

Don’t forget that in Greinke’s first year in Milwaukee he was hurt and missed spring training. His first month of starts during the regular season was basically his spring. That did affect his numbers. Also I have to say his hos home/road splits while he was with Mil were pretty much scewed towards home if I’m not mistaken. Dont care to look at his career nimbers in that regard but I think his personal issues may reflect this. When hes at home and comfortable he does well, when not he doesnt. And Miller isnt exactly pitcher friendly.

By: canadabaseball

canadabaseball — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:33:04 +0000

He will be a beaver by next season

By: fuddpucker

fuddpucker — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:19:50 +0000

Welcome to Atlanta, Zack.

By: fuddpucker

fuddpucker — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:16:55 +0000

Remember Greinke dogged it in 2010 in commonly used ploy to get out of KC.

So, if you substitute Zack’s 2010 with his 2009 season you’ll find his numbers are PHENOMENAL!

By: paperlions

paperlions — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:14:07 +0000

Performance and results are not the same. Perfomance is more indicative of future results than the results from the performance. It isn’t unlike confusing a well pitched game with fortunate results (like most no hitters).

…and ERA+ kind of sucks as a metric, especially when you aren’t using it best feature (normalizing across eras) because the stats you are using are all from the same time frame.

By: cw2121

cw2121 — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:11:26 +0000

K/BB is hardly more theoretical than ERA+, and Greinke is seventh in the MLB over that span in the former category. I’d say how many strikeouts he gets and how few batters he walks are the ultimate in a pitcher’s actual outcomes. ERA and its progeny are likely inferior as predictive stats, though that’s an intuition and not something I have the energy to investigate right now.

By: djpostl

djpostl — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:06:53 +0000

Good, yet not great stats, the whole “anxiety” issue & a 6.48 ERA in the post-season (granted, small sample but it’s all you have to go on) don’t exactly warrant a contract north of Cain’s.

But economic factors (CBA changes funneling team expenditures into FA market instead of draft bonuses & the international market namely) & having LA, TEX & LAA all in the mix on him are going to ensure he gets a monster deal.

By: Jeremiah Graves

Jeremiah Graves — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:06:48 +0000

I can’t help but notice that no one is talking about the real steal of this offseason, Carl Pavano!!

He rates #1 in “‘stache grown” and “memories of dating Alyssa Milano” among all free-agent pitchers who have pitched in both Minnesota and Florida…so there’s that.

Someone find me a metric to discredit those facts?! I dare ya…

By: Matthew Pouliot

Matthew Pouliot — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:05:33 +0000

Fair enough. You’re right, it’s always good to have more numbers.

Posting them like that, though… I just couldn’t help but think of all the broadcasters talking about how a guy has a great fielding percentage and hardly ever commits errors, too!

By: Matthew Pouliot

Matthew Pouliot — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:01:58 +0000

Whoops. Switched it to read “strikeout rate.” Thanks!

By: phillyphreak

phillyphreak — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:00:04 +0000

I never said they were vastly different metrics. I said that it’s another way to look at Grienke, as paperlions pointed out. I think it’s fine to say that FIP and SIERA are different metrics and I think it’s even better to include multiple metrics when discussing players.

By: Matthew Pouliot

Matthew Pouliot — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 03:59:08 +0000

I’d certainly stick with “another way” over “better,” paperlions.

The theory of Greinke’s results have been quite a bit better than Greinke’s actual results.

By: paperlions

paperlions — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 03:54:02 +0000

I don’t think he pretended that. He did say “another way”, singular. It is another way, and, I think, what most people would consider a better way. It is to ERA+ what wOBA and wRC+ are to OPS+, which is to say…better.