Nov 4, 2012, 9:46 PM EST
There’s a pretty good chance that Zack Greinke is going to get the biggest contract ever given to a right-hander within these next six weeks or so. Yet he’s hardly been a spectacular starter these last three years.
Here he is compared to the other top seven starters in this winter’s free agent class:
Z. Greinke…: 3.83 ERA, 582/154 K/BB in 604 IP – 106 ERA+
A. Sanchez..: 3.70 ERA, 526/182 K/BB in 587 IP – 109 ERA+
K. Lohse……: 3.76 ERA, 308/115 K/BB in 491 IP – 101 ERA+
E. Jackson..: 4.10 ERA, 497/198 K/BB in 599 IP – 100 ERA+
H. Kuroda…: 3.26 ERA, 487/148 K/BB in 618 IP – 120 ERA+
D. Haren….: 3.75 ERA, 550/125 K/BB in 650 IP – 104 ERA+
R. Dempster: 4.04 ERA, 552/220 K/BB in 591 IP – 102 ERA+
S. Marcum..: 3.62 ERA, 432/141 K/BB in 520 IP – 113 ERA+
Knowing nothing about any of these pitchers other than their names, one still might say Greinke is the best bet of the group, since he does have top best strikeout rate of the bunch. And, of course, this three-year span doesn’t include Greinke’s Cy Young season in 2009.
Still, it’s three years of quality, but hardly awe-inspiring, pitching for a guy who is almost certainly will earn north of $20 million and maybe as much as $25 million per season in his contract.
And I’m just not at all convinced that he’s worth it. The Angels could have kept Haren for $12 million and gotten another pitcher from this list for about what they’ll spend on Greinke next year, assuming they’re even able to re-sign him. Greinke is going to be bid on as though he’s in the same class as Matt Cain and Cole Hamels, and he hasn’t been. Cain, whose $127.5 million deal with the Giants is currently the biggest ever for a righty, has a 123 ERA+ the last three years. Hamels, whose deal is worth $144 million for six years, has a 134 ERA+.
One other thought: Kuroda has outpitched Greinke three straight seasons. How is he not worth more than $20 million on a one-year deal? It’s pretty crazy that a few teams are going to be willing to guarantee Greinke at least $20 million-$22 million six years out, yet Kuroda might end up settling for $13 million-$15 million on a one-year deal.
Dec 27, 2014, 11:01 AM EST
The Giants finalized their new two-year, $24 million contract with Jake Peavy this week.
Dec 27, 2014, 8:59 AM EST
Macko worked for the Rangers for over 40 years.
Dec 26, 2014, 10:25 PM EST
The Braves’ one-year deal with catcher A.J. Pierzynski is for $2 million.
Dec 26, 2014, 9:20 PM EST
Rafael Furcal has suffered another injury, this time a torn hamstring which will keep him out of the Dominican Winter League playoffs.
Dec 26, 2014, 8:03 PM EST
If Wandy Rodriguez passes his physical, the Phillies are expected to sign him to a minor league deal.
Dec 26, 2014, 7:10 PM EST
Jeff Manship will begin the spring with the Indians after signing a minor league deal.
Dec 26, 2014, 6:05 PM EST
According to Peter Gammons, some GMs think the Giants will eventually trade for Ben Zobrist.
Dec 26, 2014, 3:49 PM EST
After seven years in the United States, Hiroki Kuroda is heading home.
Dec 26, 2014, 11:32 AM EST
Uggla hit .179 in 2013 and .149 this year.
Dec 26, 2014, 11:00 AM EST
And it’s all thanks to a man named George Mukhobe.
Dec 26, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
He threw 64 innings with a 3.96 ERA and 44/16 K/BB ratio for the Giants in 2014.
Dec 26, 2014, 9:35 AM EST
Remember, Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.
Dec 26, 2014, 7:32 AM EST
Actually, no, he probably wouldn’t have, Curt.
Dec 25, 2014, 3:05 PM EST
Japanese righty Chihiro Kaneko might have been one of the top starters on the open market this winter had he been posted by the Orix Buffaloes, his Nippon Professional Baseball team.
Dec 25, 2014, 1:23 PM EST
Your one-stop shop for all of the offseason signings.
Dec 25, 2014, 8:47 AM EST
And a very special friend of HBT
Dec 24, 2014, 10:00 PM EST
A good way to finish off our Christmas Eve coverage on HardballTalk …
Dec 24, 2014, 8:04 PM EST
The sought-after 26-year-old right-hander has now officially re-signed with the Hiroshima Carp for the 2015 season, according to the Japan Times.
Dec 24, 2014, 6:17 PM EST
Ben Badler of Baseball America reports that the Rockies have agreed to terms on a minor league contract with outfielder Roger Bernadina.
Dec 24, 2014, 4:21 PM EST
A toast to my big brother George: The richest man in town. Well, except for Mr. Potter. That guy is LOADED.
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