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Josh Hamilton wants $175 million? Good luck with that, dude

Nov 5, 2012, 8:30 AM EDT

I want to find a genie in a bottle who bucks convention and doesn’t mind it when you wish for more wishes. The odds of that happening are about the same odds as Josh Hamilton getting what he wants:


That’s $25 million a year for seven years. I think it’s a stretch to think he’ll get seven years at anything even approaching that level, if he gets that many years at all. If he does get $25 million it would probably be some four-year thing maybe with a series of options afterward. No way someone goes both big and long on his deal.

Whatever. They’re all rumors until something happens. I would expect that, if it hasn’t happened already, Hamilton’s people have denied this. Not because they don’t want it — they may actually be asking for it — but because there is no percentage in having a perception that Hamilton is asking for the moon out there. At least until he’s in serious negotiations with someone.

  1. illcomm - Nov 5, 2012 at 8:36 AM

    He’ll get it.

    • dwrek5 - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:05 AM

      Interesting all the thumbs downs here, were ill and I the only ones awake last winter? Prince Fielder got 10 & 241…

      • jl9830 - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

        No he didn’t; he got 9/214.

      • pinkfloydprism - Nov 5, 2012 at 10:48 AM

        Hamilton is much more of a risk. Unfortunately he has the substance abuse monkey on his back. I think that is going to cause teams to shy away from giving him something like this… and the fact that he is going to be 32 in May. The best I can see is, maybe 5 years 120m. Maybe.

        It is too bad that the substance abuse issue is there. He is one hell of a player.

    • somekat - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:06 AM

      no, he won’t

    • andrewproughcfe - Nov 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

      Agreed – either the Yankees or the Angels (or both) will convince themselves they can’t live without him.

      • mrfloydpink - Nov 5, 2012 at 11:53 AM

        Great point about the Angels. I mean, they have four OFs and two 1B/DH types, which means they have six players (Trout, Pujols, Bourjos, Morales, Trumbo, Wells) for four spots. They’re TOTALLY going to buy a seventh.

  2. buffalomafia - Nov 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

    Not worth it!

  3. husky2score - Nov 5, 2012 at 8:45 AM

    Shoot, he wants to go to the Yankees.

    • Marty - Nov 5, 2012 at 12:31 PM

      I see this as the Dodgers/Marlins dumb test.

      The Yankers are next.

      • lmoneyfresh - Nov 5, 2012 at 3:42 PM

        An ex-cokehead going to south beach? That does not seem like a wise idea.

  4. paperlions - Nov 5, 2012 at 8:49 AM

    If he was 29 starting next year, he probably gets it (of course, then he would probably be asking for, or rumored to be asking for, 10 years). But with his injury history and a 32nd birthday next May, I doubt he gets 5 years….then again, I didn’t think anyone would give Pujols 10 years or Prince 9 at the salaries they got either. Then again, those 2 signings may hurt Hamilton’s market, if for no other reason, those two teams are unlikely to be in on him.

    Pujols had his worst year as a major leaguer, continuing his steady decline from uber fantastic to only great. Angels attendance was the worst it has been since Moreno took over the team, the Angels finished in 3rd place, and they just dumped 40% of their starting rotation with no obvious replacements in the system. Teams may be a little more shy about putting all of their eggs in only a few baskets, considering how poorly most such contracts have worked out for the teams (even when the players played well).

    • themerlo - Nov 5, 2012 at 1:04 PM

      Several analysts have Detroit as the front runner to land him. At how much, who knows. but out owner (Illitch, who owns the Red Wings) wants a championship more than anything. Detroit is expected to make another splash in Free Agency again per analysts reports. If the money is right, this could be unreal. Miggy, Fielder, Vmart, Hamilton. Yikes!

      • phreakin - Nov 5, 2012 at 2:35 PM

        And yet they’ll still get beat by a true TEAM in the playoffs

  5. stex52 - Nov 5, 2012 at 8:49 AM

    Looking at BRef, I say 4 years, 72 MM$. And his statistics barely support that. He is 31 years old, and doesn’t have the track record that suggests durability. Even without the drama-boy factor, I think anything over that is an overpay.

    • danaking - Nov 5, 2012 at 10:02 AM

      You’re close to what he should get, but he’ll get more than that. He’s a marquee name, and someone won;t be able to help themselves.

      • shea801 - Nov 5, 2012 at 10:39 AM

        So he’s going to the Marlins?

  6. willclarkgameface - Nov 5, 2012 at 8:49 AM

    You know how these negotiations go. If he were to come out of the gate and say, “I’ll take 4 years/$90 mil” he’d get offered 3 years/$70 mil. These owners are cheap bastards and they ALL want to make their own. He’s just doing his part with setting his starting point. He’ll never get this and he knows it.

    I say Josh gets that 4 year/$90 million deal.

  7. kiwicricket - Nov 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

    Will have to wait and see what God decides is fitting, in this situation…

    • darthicarus - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:06 AM

      Obviously all the $ from his contract will go towards the production of his clothing line as this was also God’s will.

  8. clownsfan - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

    Is he doin drugs again?

    • ptfu - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:49 AM

      That’s a clown question, bro.

  9. legacybroken - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:13 AM

    Prince was 27 this year and has been an ironman on the field. Hamilton is an injury prone 32 year old with all the other off field baggage.

    • Old Gator - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:52 AM

      The Fat Prince’s injuries will set in eventually, and then they’ll start coming thick and fast. He’s made of flesh and blood, and lots and lots of it, and it’s only a matter of time. He’s got five years to go till he’s Hamilton’s age and by that time I think the odds are pretty good that “injury-prone” will be a phrase you’ll find coming frequently up in discussions about him too.

      • themerlo - Nov 5, 2012 at 1:08 PM

        Even if you are right – that 6 years of 9 years off his contract. I will happily take 3 down years of the 9 we signed him for. Hamilton is a MAJOR risk right now – he wont get that money.

        He will sign with Detroit or New York at 4 for $80 mil

      • APBA Guy - Nov 5, 2012 at 1:18 PM

        OG-tough day for you in the “thumbs down” department. First the Tagg Romney comment now this. Sad. You need to pander more. Maybe mention the trend line of Prince following very closely on a certain Mo Vaughn, etc..Still, Josh’s agent going for a contract through age 39 is a happy thought, isn’t it? Especially considering Ichiro isn’t even 39 yet, and his worst injury was a sore shoulder after a wall-crashing catch, out for a week.

      • scatterbrian - Nov 5, 2012 at 3:24 PM

        He’s the Flesh Prince.

        Best not to Google that at work, btw.

  10. diamondmo33 - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

    The cubs will do it lol

  11. sfm073 - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

    He must be high.

  12. florida727 - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:41 AM

    First rule of negotiations: shoot for the moon, you never know who might be desperate enough to say “yes”. Rule #2, know your drop-dead point. Rule #3, be realistic about what you can legitimately expect. The end-result is almost always somewhere in the middle ground. Baseball nowadays has so many precedents set that it’ll actually be pretty predictable as to what he’ll get. The stats will drive it, with the outside influences like his past history of personal issues, etc., fine-tuning the final numbers. Regardless, he gets to do what we all wish we could do: play a game that we all loved as kids, and break the bank in the process. Heck, I wish him luck. He’s living a dream we’d all like to be living.

    • stex52 - Nov 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

      In principle everything you say is very sensible. In practice, as Albert and Prince proved last year, we can’t count on the market to be rational.

  13. sidelineshot - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:45 AM

    25 per … really?
    The Yankees, Red Sox and Angels won’t go for that.
    The Dodgers have 21 mil on Crawford (LF) and 20 on Kemp (CF), so no way…. who else would have that kind of dough and be crazy enough?

    • Old Gator - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:54 AM

      A frustrated and pissed off Mike Illitch?

      • historiophiliac - Nov 5, 2012 at 11:23 AM

        Seriously, you think he fits with the Detroit Feesh? I wouldn’t mind an upgrade of my bf Torii Hunter in the outfield, but I think the Tigers’ big $ is getting spent on pitching this year.

      • themerlo - Nov 5, 2012 at 1:13 PM

        Illitch will be in on him – 4 for $70 or $80. Detroit’s pitching is fine – the offer to Hamilton will depend on what happens with Sanchez. But Illitch will be in on him. He’s old and mental and wants a title. He don’t care about the money because he’s dead in less that 5 – that’s money his kids deal with, not him. He’s a baseball guy and wants a ring to take to the grave.

        I repeat – Hamilton to Detroit: 4 for $70 – $80.

      • historiophiliac - Nov 5, 2012 at 1:29 PM

        I disagree. I think the series proved our pitching issues. But, we shall see. My experience with the Tigers of late, though, is that whatever happens, it will be unexpected.

  14. aceshigh11 - Nov 5, 2012 at 9:57 AM

    Cocaine’s a helluva drug.

  15. pellypell - Nov 5, 2012 at 10:29 AM

    The most important factor in any long term deal is health and Josh hasn’t demonstrated he can stay healthy. Minus his baggage and health questions, the boy can rake and I would want him on my team. I say 3-4 years max with some serious kickers. If he can’t accept this, then as an owner, I can’t accept him.

  16. bouwel92 - Nov 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

    Well i want 175 million bucks too, but that just aint in the cards.

  17. pacific123ocean - Nov 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

    No, he doesn’t deserve it…but, I know some team will be stupid enough to pay him what he wants.

  18. Stiller43 - Nov 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

    You said “big and long”

  19. hisgirlgotburrelled - Nov 5, 2012 at 12:43 PM

    He has hit .313/.370/.583 over the last 3 years. He should get 5 years or more, simply because it is free agency. Teams will have to outbid another team and give him more than they want to. $175 million for 7 years is no more ridiculous than suggesting a 3 year deal.

    • themerlo - Nov 5, 2012 at 1:16 PM

      He wont get more than 4 or 5 because of age and injuries. Prince has missed 1 game in the last 5+ years I believe. Hamilton will get coin but over a short term.

      • hisgirlgotburrelled - Nov 5, 2012 at 2:38 PM

        Prince Fielder plays 1B and was not 31. And he got 9 years. No one, even Hamilton, is suggesting 9 years.

        A better comparison is Jayson Werth’s 7-year $126 million contract he got in 2011 going into his age 32 season. Hamilton is almost the same exact age as Werth was when he signed (off by 1 day), and they both play the outfield.

        If Werth can get 7 years, $18 million per year, then you cannot say Hamilton will not get more than 4 or 5 years (5 is more than 4 anyway).

  20. illcomm - Nov 5, 2012 at 2:24 PM

    the comments relating to 20 mil or less per year are laughable. I agree that is what he is probably worth, but number one guy on FA will get 23.3 plus per over 5-7 min

    • hisgirlgotburrelled - Nov 5, 2012 at 2:41 PM

      He’s a free agent and free agents get more than what they are actually worth. It happens in every sport, every year.

  21. joerymi - Nov 5, 2012 at 2:37 PM

    With a 50% luxury tax looming for the Yankees, I would probably cross them out. The Angels are looking like the leaders to overpay Greinke, so I doubt they are willing to do it, especially if they are starting to already regret the Pujols deal.

    Even with the organization seemingly not interested in a long term deal with him, I still think the Rangers are a leader. If that lineup doesn’t win a title, it would be a shame for them.

    I could see Detroit because the owner has billions to spend and probably not much longer to spend it.

    The Nats were in on Fielder, Hamilton will probably be cheaper. Although aging stars are a better commodity in the AL.

    Maybe a team like the White Sox make a surprise move. They played over their head last year and still couldn’t win the division, even with Detroit playing mediocre baseball most the season.

    But considering how these go, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get 175.

  22. phreakin - Nov 5, 2012 at 2:37 PM

    No chance in hell he goes to the Yankees. They already have one albatross of a contract to deal with, they won’t do another. I know this sounds odd, and I feel odd saying it, but these Yankees are done with the buying teams. Hal wants to earn it as a badge of honor.

    • cackalackyank - Nov 5, 2012 at 7:49 PM

      I agree except that’s 2 albatross contracts…I am starting to count Mark “brittlebones” Texeira in that category too.

  23. phreakin - Nov 5, 2012 at 2:39 PM

    I’ll go out on a limb and say he goes to the D-Backs by winter meetings

  24. mungman69 - Nov 5, 2012 at 2:53 PM

    The Yankees are the only team to bid that high.

  25. honkerdawg - Nov 5, 2012 at 2:58 PM

    He’s not worth it – nobody is

    • kardshark1 - Nov 5, 2012 at 3:14 PM

      Their production to the team in terms of wins might not be. But think outside that. Barry Bonds made 17 mil a year in San Francision. In terms of jersey sales, memorabilia, National television exposure for the team, putting fans in the seats, he was worth at least 2-3 times that money if not more,.

      When an owner shells out this money, they’re paying for the total revenue that player will bring in, not just his production on the field. So in many cases, the player is very worth it.

      • joerymi - Nov 5, 2012 at 3:28 PM

        Yeah, this whole thing of attributing value based exclusively on sabermetrics is kind of laughable.

        These businessmen didn’t become billionaires by just handing out money. Now certainly, sports money is usually spent much more liberally than other business interests, but the values of these teams go up. If the spending were so horrific, the values would plummet.

      • kardshark1 - Nov 5, 2012 at 4:35 PM

        I’m gonna predict he lands with the Cubs or Red Sox. 7 years/165 sounds about right and worth it if Pujols and Fielder got what they got.

        The Sox have a contending team without Valentine, no reason for them not to compete. I don’t feel the Orioles or Yankees win 90 games next season, so I think that division is wide open. Rays being the only really good team.

        I think the Cubs are probably a year away from competing. So this year is a good time to get the ball rolling by bringing in Hamiltion – Showing the fans that the Cubs are making their move in the next year or two. Theo is there to spend money and compete, not to rebuild for multiple years.

        Both teams have a ton of money to spend.

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